{"id":308682,"date":"2026-03-02T00:50:11","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T00:50:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/308682\/"},"modified":"2026-03-02T00:50:11","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T00:50:11","slug":"irans-regime-was-built-for-survival-a-long-war-is-now-likely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/308682\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran’s regime was built for survival \u2013 a long war is now likely"},"content":{"rendered":"

ANALYSIS: The joint US\u2013Israel strikes on Iran<\/a>, which killed the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei<\/a>, and Tehran\u2019s retaliatory strikes on Israel<\/a> and neighbouring Arab countries have again plunged the Middle East into war.<\/p>\n

By Amin Saikal for The Conversation<\/p>\n

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said their aim is to bring about a favourable regime change<\/a> in Iran. The implications of this for Iran, the region and beyond should not be underestimated.<\/p>\n

Although Khamenei\u2019s killing is a significant blow to the Islamic regime, it is not insurmountable. Many Iranian leaders have been killed in the past, including Qassem Soleimani, Tehran\u2019s regional security architect, who was assassinated by the US in January 2020.<\/p>\n

But they have been replaced relatively smoothly, and the Islamic regime has endured.<\/p>\n

Get the latest from our live updates here<\/a><\/p>\n

Khamenei’s departure is unlikely to mean the end of the Islamic regime in the short run. He anticipated this eventuality, and reportedly last week arranged a line of succession for his leadership and that of senior military, security and political leaders if they were “martyred”. <\/p>\n

However, Khamenei was both a political and spiritual leader. He has commanded followers not only among devout Shias in Iran, but also many Muslims across the wider region. His assassination will spur some of them to seek revenge, potentially sparking a wave of extremist violent actions in the region and beyond.<\/p>\n

A regime built for survival<\/p>\n

Under a constitutional provision of the Islamic Republic, the Assembly of Experts \u2013 the body responsible for appointing and dismissing a supreme leader \u2013 will now meet and appoint an interim or long-term leader<\/a>, either from among their own ranks or outside.<\/p>\n

There are three likely candidates to be his successor:<\/p>\n

\u2013 Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje\u2019i, the head of the judiciary<\/p>\n

\u2013 Ali Asghar Hejazi, Khamenei\u2019s chief-of-staff<\/p>\n

\u2013 Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Rohullah Khomeini.<\/p>\n

The regime has every incentive to do what it must to ensure its survival. There are many regime enforcers and defenders, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its subordinate paramilitary Basij group, across the country to suppress any domestic uprisings and fight for the endurance of the regime.<\/p>\n

\"Supreme<\/p>\n

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei leads an Eid al-Fitr prayer marking the end of the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosque in Tehran, Iran. (Source: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP) (Source: Supplied)<\/p>\n

Trump and Netanyahu have called on the Iranian people \u2013 some 60% of whom are below the age of 30 \u2013 to topple the regime once the US-Israeli operations have crippled it.<\/p>\n

Many are deeply aggrieved by the regime\u2019s theocratic impositions and dire economic situation and took to the streets in protests in late 2025 and early 2026. The regime cracked down harshly then, killing thousands.<\/p>\n

Could a public uprising happen now? So far, the coercive and administrative state apparatus seems to be solidly backing the regime. Without serious cracks appearing among these figures \u2013 particularly the Revolutionary Guard \u2013 the regime can be expected to survive this crisis.<\/p>\n

Global economic pain<\/p>\n

The regime has also been able to respond very quickly to outside aggression. It has already hit back at Israel and US military bases across the Persian Gulf, using short-range and long-range advanced ballistic missiles and drones.<\/p>\n

While many of the projectiles have been repelled, some have hit their targets, causing serious damage.<\/p>\n

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has also set out to choke the Strait of Hormuz \u2013 the narrow strategic waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and Indian Ocean. Some 20% of the world\u2019s oil and 25% of its liquefied gas flows through the strait every day.<\/p>\n

The morning’s headlines in 90 seconds, including new footage of major Iran strike, and a massive police sting in Christchurch. (Source: Breakfast)<\/p>\n

The United States has vowed to keep the strait open, but the Revolutionary Guard is potentially well-placed to block traffic from going through. There could be serious implications for the global energy supply and broader economy.<\/p>\n

Both sides in this conflict have traversed all of the previous red lines. They are now in open warfare, which is engulfing the entire region.<\/p>\n

\"Fishermen<\/p>\n

Fishermen work in front of oil tankers south of the Strait of Hormuz. (Source: Associated Press)<\/p>\n

A prolonged war looks likely<\/p>\n

If there was any pretence on the part of Washington and Jerusalem that their attacks would not lead to a regional war, they were wrong. This is already happening.<\/p>\n

Many countries that have close cooperation agreements with Iran, including China and Russia, have condemned the US-Israeli actions. The United Nations secretary-general Ant\u00f3nio Guterres has also urgently called for de-escalation and a return to diplomatic negotiations, as have many others.<\/p>\n

But the chances for this look very slim. The US and Iran were in the middle of a second round of talks over Tehran\u2019s nuclear programme when the attacks happened. The Omani foreign minister, who mediated between the two sides, publicly said just days ago that “peace was within reach”. <\/p>\n

But this was not enough to convince Trump and Netanyahu to let the negotiations continue. They sensed now was the best time to strike the Islamic Republic to destroy not just its nuclear programme but also its military capability after Israel degraded some of Tehran\u2019s regional affiliates, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, and expanded its footprint in Lebanon and Syria over the last two and a half years.<\/p>\n

While it is difficult to be definitive about where the war is likely to lead, the scene is set for a long conflict. It may not last days, but rather weeks. The US and Israel do not want anything short of regime change, and the regime is determined to survive.<\/p>\n

With this war, the Trump leadership is also signalling to its adversaries \u2013 China, in particular \u2013 that the US remains the preeminent global power, while Netanyahu is seeking to cement Israel\u2019s position as the dominant regional actor.<\/p>\n

Pity the Iranian people, the region and the world that have to endure the consequences of another war of choice in the Middle East for geopolitical gains in an already deeply troubled world.<\/p>\n

Author Amin Saikal is an Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at Australian National University, The University of Western Australia & Victoria University. <\/p>\n

This article was republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons licence. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"ANALYSIS: The joint US\u2013Israel strikes on Iran, which killed the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Tehran\u2019s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":308683,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[42,5107,43,64,40,38,41,39],"class_list":["post-308682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-headlines","tag-middle-east","tag-news","tag-north-america","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/308682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=308682"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/308682\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/308683"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=308682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=308682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=308682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}