Before the release, BNZ was the most pessimistic of the banks with its forecast of a 0.5% decline in GDP, but it is more optimistic about the current September quarter.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is a heck of a lot of money coming through the external sector, car registrations are pretty good and card transactions are picking up,\u201d Steel said.<\/p>\n
While there was an increased chance of a 50bp cut next month, Steel said much would depend on the data between now and the Reserve Bank\u2019s OCR review on October 8.<\/p>\n
However, BNZ economists are sticking with their central view of two more 25bp rate cuts in October and November.<\/p>\n
Rabobank, in its analysis, said the economic conversation in New Zealand had shifted from a focus on fighting inflation to supporting growth and employment. <\/p>\n
The Reserve Bank has already cut the OCR by a cumulative 250bps since August last year, the bank noted.<\/p>\n
Rabobank has forecast cuts of 50bps in October and 25bps in November to take the OCR to 2.25%.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe see potential for a further 25bp cut in Q1 2026 if growth does not stabilise close to trend,\u201d Rabobank said.<\/p>\n
Rabobank expects further falls in one to five-year bond yields and swap rates, but for 10-year bond yields to remain relatively elevated.<\/p>\n
Westpac and ASB also expect a 50bp cut in October, followed by a 25bp cut in November.<\/p>\n
Kiwibank has been calling for a 2.5% OCR for over two years and has made a case for a 50bp cut next month.<\/p>\n
ANZ economists are taking an open-minded approach.<\/p>\n
\u201cNot cutting 50bps in October doesn\u2019t rule out a 50bp cut in November and\/or ultimately cutting the OCR lower than 2.5%,\u201d the bank said.<\/p>\n
Jamie Gray is an Auckland-based journalist, covering the financial markets and the primary sector. He joined the Herald in 2011.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Before the release, BNZ was the most pessimistic of the banks with its forecast of a 0.5% decline…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":30984,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[29813,74,1396,8834,138,6932,3588,3105,3499,305,29812,78,12469,220,111,139,69,1570,6644,1118,5908,2515,2081,19257,10665,1961,4518,29814,80],"class_list":["post-30983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-50basispoint","tag-after","tag-banks","tag-big","tag-business","tag-cash","tag-cut","tag-data","tag-growth","tag-have","tag-imminent","tag-in","tag-interest","tag-markets","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-october","tag-odds","tag-of","tag-official","tag-raise","tag-raised","tag-rate","tag-reserve","tag-this","tag-weeks","tag-worsethanexpected","tag-zealand"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30983","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30983"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30983\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30984"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30983"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30983"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30983"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}