Confidence remains high, but rising cost and wage pressures keep inflation risks alive.<\/p>\n
Summary:<\/p>\n
Business confidence fell 5 points to 59.2 but remains elevated.<\/p>\n
Own-activity outlook improved slightly to 52.6.<\/p>\n
Pricing intentions eased marginally but remain high at 53%.<\/p>\n
Cost expectations rose to 79.4% \u2014 highest since mid-2023.<\/p>\n
Wage expectations lifted to 3.01%, highest since April 2024.<\/p>\n
Inflation expectations rose to 2.93%, highest since July 2024.<\/p>\n
Construction indicators cooled sharply; agriculture strengthened.<\/p>\n
Credit conditions deteriorated as higher interest rates bite<\/p>\n
New Zealand business confidence retreated from extreme highs in February but remains firmly expansionary, with the ANZ Business Outlook headline index easing 5 points to 59.2 Activity indicators remain solid, though sector divergence is widening.<\/p>\n
The own-activity outlook edged up to 52.6, with stronger late-month responses following the RBNZ\u2019s recent Monetary Policy Statement, which helped ease financial conditions. However, experienced activity and employment indicators were softer in construction, highlighting ongoing volatility in that sector.<\/p>\n
Inflation pressures remain the dominant theme. The net percentage of firms intending to raise prices over the next three months slipped to 53.3% from 56.5%, but this only partially reversed January\u2019s surge. Average pricing intentions eased slightly to 1.97% over three months. Meanwhile, cost expectations climbed to 79.4%, the highest since July 2023, and expected wage growth rose to 3.01%, its strongest reading since April 2024.<\/p>\n
Inflation expectations one year ahead increased to 2.93%, the highest since July 2024, challenging assumptions that inflation pressures will steadily fade. ANZ notes that pricing and wage indicators are not yet consistent with a smooth disinflation path, even though headline CPI is expected to return to the RBNZ\u2019s 1\u20133% target band in Q1.<\/p>\n
Sectorally, agriculture lifted strongly, likely reflecting the 19% rise in dairy prices so far this year, while construction cooled sharply. Manufacturing remains the most confident sector (77), while retail pricing intentions are particularly elevated.<\/p>\n
Overall, the survey signals continued economic momentum but persistent inflation pressure, complicating the RBNZ\u2019s confidence that inflation is durably heading back to 2%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Confidence remains high, but rising cost and wage pressures keep inflation risks alive. Summary: Business confidence fell 5…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":309853,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,168869,139,69],"class_list":["post-309852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-new-zealand-inflation-pressures-re-emerging","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/309852","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=309852"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/309852\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/309853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=309852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=309852"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=309852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}