Fundamental
\nOverview<\/p>\n
Gold extended the gains
\ninto a new all-time high right before the FOMC decision but eventually gave
\nback everything as the Fed didn\u2019t match the very dovish expectations priced in by
\nthe market. <\/p>\n
In fact, the dot plot
\nshowed that the FOMC projected two more rate cuts for 2025 by a narrow
\nmajority, with the rest of officials expecting just one more or even none.
\nMoreover, the Fed projected just one cut in 2026 compared to three that the
\nmarket was pricing before the decision.<\/p>\n
Fed Chair Powell then
\nlabelled the rate cut as a \u201crisk management\u201d action given the weakening in the
\nlabour market data. But overall, he sounded pretty neutral even though he
\nunderstandably placed more emphasis on the labour market given the two consecutive
\nsoft NFP reports. <\/p>\n
Looking forward, it\u2019s going
\nto be all about the data. Strong data will likely trigger a hawkish repricing
\nin interest rates expectations and weigh on gold. On the other hand, weak data
\nwill likely continue to support it.<\/p>\n
In the bigger picture, gold
\nshould remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid
\nthe Fed\u2019s dovish reaction function. In the short-term though, hawkish repricing
\nin interest rates expectations will likely keep on triggering corrections.<\/p>\n
Gold
\nTechnical Analysis \u2013 Daily Timeframe<\/p>\n
Gold Daily<\/p>\n
On the daily chart, we can
\nsee that gold made one last push into a new all-time high before the FOMC
\ndecision and then erased the gains as the Fed didn\u2019t match the very dovish
\nexpectations from the market. <\/p>\n
From a risk management perspective, the buyers Gold Technical Analysis Gold 4 hour<\/p>\n On the 4 hour chart, we can Gold Technical Analysis Gold 1 hour<\/p>\n On the 1 hour chart, we can
\nwill have a better risk to reward setup around the major trendline<\/a>, while the sellers will look for a
\nbreak lower to extend the drop into the 3,120 level next. Such a big correction
\nmight happen if we get strong US data in the next weeks that triggers a hawkish
\nrepricing in interest rates expectations.<\/p>\n
\n\u2013 4 hour Timeframe<\/p>\n
\nsee that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. We
\nhave also a minor support<\/a>
\naround the 3,615 level. The buyers will likely step in around the trendline and
\nthe support to position for a rally into a new all-time high, while the sellers
\nwill look for downside breakouts to pile in for a drop into the major
\ntrendline.<\/p>\n
\n\u2013 1 hour Timeframe<\/p>\n
\nsee that we have an important swing level at 3,672 that acted as resistance
\nrecently. If the price breaks to the upside, we can expect the buyers to pile
\nin for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will
\nlikely lean on that level with a defined risk above it to position for a drop
\ninto the 3,615 support with a better risk to reward setup. The red lines define
\nthe average daily range<\/a> for today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Fundamental Overview Gold extended the gains into a new all-time high right before the FOMC decision but eventually…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":31292,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[138,4241,30096,220,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-31291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-markets","tag-business","tag-gold","tag-gold-technical-analysis","tag-markets","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31291"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31291\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31292"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}