Westpac<\/a> suggests a disruption to Iranian production only could see the price of oil rise another US$25 per barrel to around US$100 (NZ$168).<\/p>\nIt’s warning that could push our inflation rate up by around one percent.<\/p>\n
Further shipping disruptions through the Strait could see Brent crude spike further, and as a result, inflation could climb.<\/p>\n
Willis told Checkpoint she was receiving briefings every day from the Treasury, which was closely co-ordinating with the Reserve Bank (RBNZ).<\/p>\n
“What they’re telling me is that, of course, as a small trading nation, New Zealand will be impacted by these global events, but how we are affected will depend on what happens with the data,” Willis said.<\/p>\n
Willis said she hasn’t received formal Treasury scenarios on the impacts of the Middle East conflict yet.<\/p>\n
However, she said markets aren’t predicting oil to rise as high as they did after Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine.<\/p>\n
“Markets don’t know yet how long this conflict will be or how severe this conflict will be, in fact, none of us know that,” Willis said.<\/p>\n
“The best-case scenario I think for all of us is that the conflict ends. This is not New Zealand’s, but this is a conflict that is affecting human beings in a profound way and also has the potential to affect the global economy, and, therefore, New Zealand’s economy in a profound way.”<\/p>\n
Willis said the Treasury and Reserve Bank are geared up to monitor the effects of the war closely.<\/p>\n
She said it was too soon to tell how the conflict will impact her 2026 Budget, but she expects to stick to the operating allowance she gave off $2.4 billion.<\/p>\n
Sign up for Ng\u0101 Pitopito K\u014drero<\/a>, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Photo: RNZ \/ Samuel Rillstone Finance Minister Nicola Willis says the economic impact of the war in the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":164948,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[48,138,47,219,111,43,139,69,49,46,44,45],"class_list":{"0":"post-314021","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-audio","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-current-affairs","11":"tag-economy","12":"tag-new-zealand","13":"tag-news","14":"tag-newzealand","15":"tag-nz","16":"tag-podcasts","17":"tag-public-radio","18":"tag-radio-new-zealand","19":"tag-rnz"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314021","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=314021"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314021\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/164948"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=314021"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=314021"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=314021"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}