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The country’s total energy import bill already stands at about $12 billion annually, it said.<\/p>\n
According to the report, even a moderate increase in oil prices could sharply raise Bangladesh’s import expenses.<\/p>\n
A $10 per barrel increase in oil prices could raise Bangladesh’s energy import costs by about $900 million, while a $20 increase could push the bill up by nearly $1.8 billion, \u00a0the report said.<\/p>\n
Following the escalation of tensions, Brent crude prices rose to around $92 per barrel, about 42% higher than the pre-war level of $65, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices in Europe have surged nearly 70%, according to PRI’s analysis.<\/p>\n
Higher oil prices would increase Bangladesh’s demand for US dollars to pay energy import bills, putting pressure on the exchange rate and potentially reducing foreign exchange reserves.<\/p>\n
The report also highlightsedthe strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil trade passes.<\/p>\n
Any disruption to this route due to the Iran-US conflict could trigger a severe supply shock in global energy markets, it added.<\/p>\n
In an extreme scenario, global oil prices could rise to $130 per barrel or more, which would significantly increase production and transportation costs worldwide, PRI warned.<\/p>\n
Such disruptions could also force Bangladesh to impose energy rationing for industries, potentially affecting industrial output and economic growth.<\/p>\n
The report said the conflict could weaken global economic growth and demand for exports, which would hurt Bangladesh’s export-oriented sectors, particularly ready-made garments.<\/p>\n
According to PRI, geopolitical tensions tend to increase financial market volatility and slow global growth.<\/p>\n
A 20\u201330% increase in oil prices could reduce global economic growth by up to one percentage point, which would negatively affect export demand from major markets.<\/p>\n
Bangladesh’s exports are already under pressure, with earnings falling 3.15% year-on-year to $31.9 billion during July-February of FY26, reflecting weak global demand and intensified competition in key markets.<\/p>\n
The PRI report says the potential energy shock comes at a time when Bangladesh’s external sector remains fragile.<\/p>\n
Although foreign exchange reserves have improved to about $30.4 billion, the country faces rising external debt obligations and slower export growth, which could strain the balance of payments if import costs increase sharply.<\/p>\n
Bangladesh’s total external debt rose from $104 billion in FY2024 to $113 billion in FY2025 and is projected to reach around $121 billion by FY2026, increasing future repayment pressures in foreign currency.<\/p>\n
The report notes that Bangladesh’s economy is already experiencing a slowdown, with GDP growth falling to 3.49% in FY2025, while inflation remains relatively high at 8.58% in January 2026.<\/p>\n
Given these conditions, PRI warned that a prolonged Iran-US conflict could further complicate Bangladesh’s macroeconomic stability by raising inflation, widening the trade deficit and weakening investment confidence.<\/p>\n
The institute stressed the need for export diversification, prudent macroeconomic management, and stronger policy reforms to enhance resilience against global shocks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Escalating tensions in the Middle East could create significant economic shocks for Bangladesh by raising global energy prices,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":319007,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":{"0":"post-319006","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-new-zealand","11":"tag-newzealand","12":"tag-nz"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/319006","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=319006"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/319006\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/319007"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=319006"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=319006"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=319006"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}