{"id":328628,"date":"2026-03-14T02:00:13","date_gmt":"2026-03-14T02:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/328628\/"},"modified":"2026-03-14T02:00:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-14T02:00:13","slug":"nasa-officials-sidestepped-questions-on-artemis-ii-risks-theres-a-reason-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/328628\/","title":{"rendered":"NASA officials sidestepped questions on Artemis II risks\u2014there’s a reason why"},"content":{"rendered":"

NASA assessed 1-in-276 odds for loss of crew on the first flight of astronauts aboard SpaceX\u2019s Crew Dragon in 2020. For Boeing\u2019s Starliner<\/a> in 2024, the probability was 1 in 295. You wouldn\u2019t be wrong to question those numbers given the proven performance<\/a> of Dragon and Starliner.<\/p>\n


\n \"\"
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

This chart from NASA\u2019s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance describes the agency\u2019s process for conducting probabilistic risk assessments.<\/p>\n

\n Credit:
\n NASA\n <\/p>\n

\n This chart from NASA\u2019s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance describes the agency\u2019s process for conducting probabilistic risk assessments.<\/p>\n

Credit:<\/p>\n

NASA<\/p>\n

So, what do the Artemis II astronauts make of all this?<\/p>\n

The mission\u2019s commander, Reid Wiseman, said the crew members were trying to prepare their families \u201chonestly and openly\u201d for the hazards of a circumlunar flight.<\/p>\n

\u201cI went on a walk with my kids, and I told them, \u2018Here\u2019s where the will is, here\u2019s where the trust documents are, and if anything happens to me, here\u2019s what\u2019s going to happen to you,\u2019\u201d Wiseman said. \u201cThat is a part of this life. I actually wish more people in everyday life talked to their families that way because you never know what the next day is going to bring.\u201d<\/p>\n

Any sailor knows you can\u2019t stay in the harbor forever. Test pilots and astronauts take calculated risks for a living.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you see numbers like Mach 39 at entry, when you see numbers like 38,000 miles, 250,000 miles, and 5 or 6 million pounds on the pad, those are just insane numbers,\u201d Wiseman said. \u201cThese numbers, you don\u2019t even comprehend. There\u2019s risk in that. We don\u2019t know what we don\u2019t know right now, so we\u2019ll go learn all that [on the mission].<\/p>\n

Despite the unknowns, Wiseman is ready: \u201cFor me, I actually feel completely 100 percent bought in. When I get into Orion, it\u2019s like climbing into my bed, and I\u2019ll feel warm and tucked in.\u201d<\/p>\n

The formal risk matrix for Artemis II is similar to that of Artemis I, with MMOD again at the top of the list. Matt Ramsey, NASA\u2019s Artemis II mission manager, told Ars in January that the Orion spacecraft\u2019s environmental control and life support system, which didn\u2019t fly with its full capability on Artemis I, is the second-highest risk for Artemis II. \u201cThose two are my biggest worries,\u201d said Ramsey, who has been with NASA since 2002.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"NASA assessed 1-in-276 odds for loss of crew on the first flight of astronauts aboard SpaceX\u2019s Crew Dragon…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":328629,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[111,139,69,147,392],"class_list":["post-328628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-space","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-science","tag-space"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/328628","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=328628"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/328628\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/328629"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=328628"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=328628"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=328628"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}