In response to about 20% of the world\u2019s oil supply<\/a> being shut off in just a few days, the International Energy Agency announced its largest-ever coordinated reserve release<\/a> of 400 million barrels. But analysts warn oil could reach US$150 a barrel<\/a> if the strait stays closed.<\/p>\n For a country that imports every drop of its petrol, diesel and jet fuel, this is not only a problem, it\u2019s a hard reminder New Zealand has failed to mitigate such strategic vulnerability.<\/p>\n Since Marsden Point stopped refining oil in 2022<\/a>, New Zealand has imported all its refined fuel, mostly from South Korea and Singapore. Those refineries rely on crude oil shipped through the waters now blocked by Iranian drones.<\/p>\n The latest official fuel stocks update<\/a> suggests roughly 52 days of total cover, with less than 33 days of petrol in the country. This buffer was only designed to smooth over short disruptions, not substitute for a prolonged supply crisis.<\/p>\n Motorists are already starting to hoard supplies, with petrol stations in Auckland already selling out of fuel cans<\/a>. Some drivers may well be regretting not having bought an electric vehicle earlier.<\/p>\n Failure to electrify<\/p>\n New Zealand generates more than 85% of its electricity from renewable sources<\/a> \u2013 rising to a record 96.4%<\/a> in the last quarter of 2025. It has one of the cleanest and most oil-independent electricity systems in the world.<\/p>\n Yet transport, which consumes nearly 40% of all energy in the country<\/a>, remains almost entirely chained to imported oil. Electricity provides just 0.5% of domestic transport energy. It didn\u2019t have to be that way.<\/p>\n For all its imperfections, the Clean Car Discount<\/a> scheme started in 2021 was shifting the needle. Over its life, the scheme put 192,000 rebates<\/a> into the hands of New Zealanders buying cleaner vehicles.<\/p>\n The scheme cost $634 million, leaned on government grants to stay afloat, and had real affordability gaps. But it was doing one thing very well: bringing in more cars with less petrol dependence.<\/p>\n EV fleet growth exceeded 50% per year<\/a> while the scheme operated. When the current government killed it at the end of 2023, that growth collapsed to under 10%. The government is now reportedly considering scrapping the Clean Car Standard<\/a>, the remaining incentive for importing lower fossil fuel-consuming vehicles.<\/p>\n Unaffordable road projects<\/p>\n The reversal of alternatives to petrol goes further. The government withdrew funding<\/a> for Auckland\u2019s under-25 and children\u2019s fares on public transport. The Transport Choices program<\/a>, which funded walking, cycling and bus improvements across the country, was frozen and then effectively killed.<\/p>\n Planned light rail for Auckland was cancelled<\/a>. And the walking and cycling component of a second Auckland Harbour crossing was stripped out<\/a>, leaving only plans for more car lanes.<\/p>\n Nationally, walking and cycling improvements received roughly $391 million in the current National Land Transport Plan<\/a>, about 1.7% of the fund, while state highway improvements got $6.18 billion.<\/p>\n Seventeen mega-highway projects \u2013 the Roads of National Significance<\/a> \u2013 carry an estimated cost of between $44 billion and $56 billion<\/a>, a figure that keeps climbing. Treasury has warned<\/a> the National Land Transport Fund can cover just under half of the overall projected $120 billion investment pipeline.<\/p>\n Seven of the first eight of those highway projects<\/a> did not have completed business cases when funding decisions were being made. In mid-February, the Infrastructure Commission called the program unaffordable<\/a>. Ten days later, the US and Israel attacked Iran.<\/p>\n Never too late<\/p>\n Every decade brings an oil shock. Each time, New Zealand could have used the crisis to create policies and plans to wean itself off over-reliance on petrol. Instead, it has waited for prices to settle and gone back to building roads and buying petrol cars.<\/p>\n The country now owns 815 light vehicles for every 1,000 people<\/a>, one of the highest rates in the world. Road transport emissions have grown 82% since 1990<\/a>.<\/p>\n New Zealand still has a choice, however. It already powers lights, hospitals and factories with renewable electricity. It could have powered a diverse transport system the same way, and it still can.<\/p>\n Every bus electrified, every cycleway built, every train funded is a direct reduction in exposure to the next crisis. The question now is whether New Zealanders begin to treat their car dependence not as a lifestyle choice but as a strategic liability. *Timothy Welch<\/a>, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau<\/a>.<\/p>\n This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By\u00a0Timothy Welch* The war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sent oil…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":334705,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-334704","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/334704","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=334704"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/334704\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/334705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=334704"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=334704"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=334704"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"The](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1773788171_17_count.gif\")
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