{"id":340671,"date":"2026-03-21T11:28:11","date_gmt":"2026-03-21T11:28:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/340671\/"},"modified":"2026-03-21T11:28:11","modified_gmt":"2026-03-21T11:28:11","slug":"iran-oil-crisis-why-nzs-car-dependence-is-now-a-strategic-liability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/340671\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran oil crisis: why NZ’s car dependence is now a strategic liability"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Timothy Welch* of \"The<\/a><\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n

\"State<\/p>\n

\nPhoto: RNZ \/ Cole Eastham-Farrelly\n<\/p>\n

Analysis – The war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> have sent oil prices past US$100 a barrel – and Kiwis flocking to fill up.<\/p>\n

Petrol just hit NZ$3 a litre, and some stations have reported running dry<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In response to about 20 percent of the world’s oil supply<\/a> being shut off in just a few days, the International Energy Agency announced its largest-ever coordinated reserve release<\/a> of 400 million barrels. But analysts warn oil could reach US$150 a barrel<\/a> if the strait stays closed.<\/p>\n

For a country that imports every drop of its petrol, diesel and jet fuel, this is not only a problem, it’s also a hard reminder New Zealand has failed to mitigate such strategic vulnerability.<\/p>\n

Since Marsden Point stopped refining oil in 2022<\/a>, New Zealand has imported all its refined fuel, mostly from South Korea and Singapore. Those refineries rely on crude oil shipped through the waters now blocked by Iranian drones.<\/p>\n

The latest official fuel stocks update<\/a> suggests roughly 52 days of total cover, with less than 33 days of petrol in the country.<\/p>\n

This buffer was only designed to smooth over short disruptions, not substitute for a prolonged supply crisis.<\/p>\n

Motorists are already starting to hoard supplies, with petrol stations in Auckland already https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/nz\/auckland\/auckland-fuel-can-sell-out-motorists-stock-up-as-petrol-prices-surge\/5U6VRQHJ4REZ3HR32NAZWXQZKE\/ selling out of fuel] cans.<\/p>\n

Some drivers may well be regretting not having bought an electric vehicle earlier.<\/p>\n

Failure to electrify<\/p>\n

New Zealand generates more than 85 percent of its electricity from renewable sources<\/a> – rising to a record 96.4 percent<\/a> in the last quarter of 2025. It has one of the cleanest and most oil-independent electricity systems in the world.<\/p>\n

Yet transport, which consumes nearly 40 percent of all energy in the country<\/a>, remains almost entirely chained to imported oil. Electricity provides just 0.5 percent of domestic transport energy.<\/p>\n

It didn’t have to be that way.<\/p>\n

For all its imperfections, the Clean Car Discount<\/a> scheme, which started in 2021, was shifting the needle.<\/p>\n

Over its life, the scheme put 192,000 rebates<\/a> into the hands of New Zealanders buying cleaner vehicles.<\/p>\n

The scheme cost $634 million, leaned on government grants to stay afloat, and had real affordability gaps. But it was doing one thing very well: bringing in more cars with less petrol dependence.<\/p>\n

EV fleet growth exceeded 50 percent per year<\/a> while the scheme operated. When the current government killed it at the end of 2023, that growth collapsed to under 10 percent.<\/p>\n

The government is now reportedly https:\/\/www.rnz.co.nz\/news\/political\/588668\/government-considering-scrapping-entire-clean-car-standard considering scrapping the Clean Car Standard], the remaining incentive for importing lower fossil fuel-consuming vehicles.<\/p>\n

Unaffordable road projects<\/p>\n

The reversal of alternatives to petrol goes further. The government withdrew funding<\/a> for Auckland’s under-25 and children’s fares on public transport. The Transport Choices program<\/a>, which funded walking, cycling and bus improvements across the country, was frozen and then effectively killed.<\/p>\n

Planned light rail for Auckland was cancelled<\/a>. And the walking and cycling component of a second Auckland Harbour crossing was stripped out<\/a>, leaving only plans for more car lanes.<\/p>\n

Nationally, walking and cycling improvements received roughly $391m in the current National Land Transport Plan<\/a>, about 1.7 percent of the fund, while state highway improvements got $6.18 billion.<\/p>\n

Seventeen mega-highway projects – the Roads of National Significance<\/a> – carry an estimated cost of between $44b and $56bi<\/a>, a figure that keeps climbing. Treasury has warned<\/a> the National Land Transport Fund can cover just under half of the overall projected $120b investment pipeline.<\/p>\n

Seven of the first eight of those highway projects<\/a> did not have completed business cases when funding decisions were being made.<\/p>\n

In mid-February, the Infrastructure Commission called the program unaffordable<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ten days later, the US and Israel attacked Iran.<\/p>\n

Never too late<\/p>\n

Every decade brings an oil shock. Each time, New Zealand could have used the crisis to create policies and plans to wean itself off over-reliance on petrol. Instead, it has waited for prices to settle and gone back to building roads and buying petrol cars.<\/p>\n

The country now owns 815 light vehicles for every 1,000 people<\/a>, one of the highest rates in the world. Road transport emissions have grown 82 percent since 1990<\/a>.<\/p>\n

New Zealand still has a choice, however. It already powers lights, hospitals and factories with renewable electricity. It could have powered a diverse transport system the same way, and it still can.<\/p>\n

Every bus electrified, every cycleway built, every train funded is a direct reduction in exposure to the next crisis. The question now is whether New Zealanders begin to treat their car dependence not as a lifestyle choice but as a strategic liability.<\/p>\n

Timothy Welch is a senior lecturer in urban planning at the University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau.<\/p>\n

-This story was originally published on The Conversation<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By Timothy Welch* of Photo: RNZ \/ Cole Eastham-Farrelly Analysis – The war in Iran and the effective…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":129728,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[48,47,111,43,139,69,49,46,44,45],"class_list":["post-340671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-zealand","tag-audio","tag-current-affairs","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-podcasts","tag-public-radio","tag-radio-new-zealand","tag-rnz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340671","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=340671"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340671\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/129728"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=340671"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=340671"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=340671"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}