The region\u2019s estimated population of 351,500 in June 2025 has increased 16.6% since 2016. When compared to the number of births, this shows much of the population growth is coming from people moving to the area.<\/p>\n
The median age in the Bay of Plenty reflects this. It was 39.7 years in the 2023 Census, compared with 38 years in 2013.<\/p>\n
The region\u2019s affordability has been cited as one possible reason why the Bay\u2019s birth rates are increasing at a slower rate compared to overall population growth.<\/p>\n
Priority One chief executive Dave Courtney said \u201cfamily formation\u201d was often delayed when younger households felt financially stretched, which had long-term workforce implications.<\/p>\n
\u201cLabour supply is already lagging behind economic growth, so attraction, retention and upskilling become critical to maintaining productivity and investment.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said multiple factors could impact the decision to have a family.<\/p>\n
\u201cHousing affordability and living costs will be in the mix but are not necessarily the determining factors.\u201d<\/p>\n
Priority One chief executive Dave Courtney. Photo \/ Supplied<\/p>\n
Courtney said slower birth growth meant the region could not rely on natural population increase to sustain the future workforce. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe focus is on building local skills, increasing workforce participation, and actively attracting people who want to live and work here.<\/p>\n
\u201cEconomic growth now depends on talent, infrastructure and housing keeping pace.\u201d<\/p>\n
Rotorua NZ head of strategy and investment Justin Kimberley said the latest birth and population data reflected trends seen nationally and internationally. <\/p>\n
He said while Rotorua had a \u201crelatively\u201d young demographic profile, including a high proportion of M\u0101ori with birth rates higher than the national average, demographic projections pointed towards an ageing population and a smaller proportion of working-age residents.<\/p>\n
\u201cAn ageing population presents growth opportunities in health, wellbeing and aged care.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kimberley said this reinforced the need for a proactive and diversified economic development strategy.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur focus goes well beyond skilled migration; we know we need to increase workforce participation, lift productivity, invest in skills development and support innovation and automation.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said productivity remained a \u201csystemic challenge\u201d and regions like Rotorua needed to play a role in \u201cshifting the dial\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cDemographic change is a headwind, but with the right strategy, it can also be an opportunity.\u201d<\/p>\n
Stats NZ\u2019s latest data suggests women are having children later, with the proportion of births to mothers aged under 25 in 2025 reaching a record low nationally.<\/p>\n
Every region in New Zealand had a decrease in the proportion of births to mothers aged under 25 years between 1995 and 2025. <\/p>\n
The Bay of Plenty had the largest decrease, dropping from 37% of births in 1995 (the highest proportion of all regions that year) to 18% in 2025.<\/p>\n
Some social organisations believe this could be because the cost of living is impacting people\u2019s decisions of when \u2013 or if \u2013 to have children. <\/p>\n
Pregnancy Choice Tauranga director Janice Tetley-Jones said \u201cwithout a doubt\u201d the cost of living was impacting people\u2019s decisions whether to have a baby or not, \u201cas it often means that both parents must work to get by\u201d.<\/p>\n
She said sometimes the decision about pregnancy came down to financial matters, \u201clike affording groceries and clothing when they are already feeling stretched financially\u201d.<\/p>\n
Pregnancy Choice Tauranga runs Graced Op Shop, where it tries to keep prices low for mothers-to-be.<\/p>\n
Pregnancy Choice Tauranga director Janice Tetley-Jones pictured in 2020. Photo \/ John Borren<\/p>\n
\u201cWe say \u2018take what you need, and give what you can\u2019, and if they can\u2019t give a koha (donation), then they are welcome to take the items needed,\u201d Tetley-Jones said.<\/p>\n
She said the cost of childcare was also significant in the decision to have children.<\/p>\n
\u201cDue to the cost of living, we also find that grandparents need to be in work to get by, and are therefore unavailable for babysitting or to support the new family.\u201d <\/p>\n
Family Works Bay of Plenty area manager Julia Peake said it was likely financial factors played a role in the decision-making around having children.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn most cases, the overall cost of living is placing stress on family functioning and wellbeing.\u201d<\/p>\n
She said examples included families missing meals or going hungry due to financial stress and regularly accessing food parcels to make ends meet.<\/p>\n
\u201cChildcare costs affect family decision-making regarding housing and employment, and can reduce families\u2019 ability to engage in counselling and education programmes.\u201d<\/p>\n