This differs from MBIE\u2019s estimates, which include vessels that haven\u2019t yet been confirmed by automatic identification system (AIS) tracking \u2013 in other words, are only likely or scheduled.<\/p>\n
As with the Covid vaccine, frantic efforts are underway to secure more diesel, but if they are unsuccessful, FuelClock.nz suggests that New Zealand could run out of diesel on April 16 under business-as-usual. Even with an emergency lockdown, it suggested diesel stocks might run dry as early as the end of next month.<\/p>\n
According to predictions markets, informed both by the wisdom of crowds and insider trading, the probability of a ceasefire by the end of April and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is no better than a third.<\/p>\n
There is more than a 50% probability that fighting will continue until the end of June, and only a 54% probability of peace by Christmas.<\/p>\n
US President Donald Trump seems to have recognised he has bitten off more than he can chew and is now desperate for a ceasefire. But Iran has little incentive to agree, and both the Arab states and Israel understand that the Khomeinist regime and its terrorist Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) cannot now be left in power. \u201cWhat doesn\u2019t kill you makes you stronger\u201d applies just as much to the Ayatollahs as anyone else.<\/p>\n
US President Donald Trump seems to have recognised he has bitten off more than he can chew in attacking Iran. Photo \/ Kyle Mazza \/ NurPhoto via AFP<\/p>\n
If Trump walks away, Iran will be entitled to declare victory and exercise hegemony over the Strait of Hormuz, including deciding which ships may sail through it.<\/p>\n
Neither geographical isolation nor the collapsed rules-based system will protect New Zealand from the fallout, far less any gauche displays of moral superiority of the sort being recommended on Luxon by the Greens and others on the far left.<\/p>\n
More so even than securing Covid vaccines five years ago, this is an era of the most brutal and amoral realpolitik, with states seeking economic self-sufficiency rather than the benefits of mature international trade.<\/p>\n
Australia is trying to aggressively push itself to the front of the queue for diesel, petrol and jet fuel by using its market power in coal and iron-sands markets.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou want coal?\u201d Canberra is asking. \u201cThen gizza your diesel.\u201d<\/p>\n
New Zealand may have lowered its environmental standards for fuel on Monday to match Australia\u2019s, but Canberra has since lowered theirs again.<\/p>\n
In a Mad Max world, it\u2019s always a race to the bottom.<\/p>\n
For his part, Luxon is conducting urgent telephone diplomacy with the likes of Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia. To use one of the Prime Minister\u2019s favourite words, this really is a situation where he should be \u201chustling\u201d, including in the most disreputable dictionary sense.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve got food,\u201d he ought to be saying, \u201cand, if you want some, your money\u2019s no good here \u2013 the price is diesel, jet fuel and petrol.\u201d This will require some sort of state control over international trade that we haven\u2019t seen since 1984 \u2013 but, then, we\u2019ve never faced a crisis of this potential magnitude since then either.<\/p>\n
Diesel rationing needs to be implemented urgently, while knowing that even the strictest regime will only buy us a few more weeks if regular shipments don\u2019t resume soon. Just as it would have been better had Jacinda Ardern acted against Covid in late February or early March rather than wait, the sooner tough measures are taken, the better off we will all be.<\/p>\n
Of course, the war may end tomorrow, our oil companies and political leaders might succeed in securing more diesel for New Zealand than those in Australia and elsewhere, and this will all turn out to have been a false alarm.<\/p>\n
But I would much rather that this column\u2019s call to action soon becomes as embarrassing for me as Luxon\u2019s, Hipkins\u2019 and Clark\u2019s unfortunate pronouncements above, than the alternative, where our ability to feed even ourselves, let alone our export markets, comes into question over the next 21 days.<\/p>\n