\u201cOf all the shortages we have \u2013 there\u2019s a gasoline shortage \u2013 you know what else is disappearing from the supermarket shelves?\u201d a television presenter jokes. \u201cToilet paper.\u201d<\/p>\n
Shops emptied of loo roll are now linked to the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, but that line was delivered by the US late-night host Johnny Carson more than 50 years ago.<\/p>\n
It was December 1973, two months after the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War, which triggered an energy crisis that would lead to a quadrupling of global oil prices.<\/p>\n
Carson\u2019s jokey The Tonight Show segment on a potential toilet paper shortage set off a bout of US panic buying that, ironically, led to actual shortages. It was described at the time<\/a> as \u201ca rumour run wild in a nation that has recently become geared to expect shortages in items considered absolute necessities\u201d.<\/p>\n Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email<\/a><\/p>\n The oil shocks of the 1970s \u2013 which led to fuel rationing<\/a> in countries like Australia, the UK, the US and France<\/a> \u2013 saw consumers stockpile petrol as well as other goods such as canning lids and gold<\/a>, in reaction to reported shortages. A decade earlier, faced with the possibility of nuclear war during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, US families had stockpiled canned goods and bottled water<\/a> in basements.<\/p>\n Panic buying in times of crisis or natural disaster is well documented \u2013 from the first and second world wars<\/a> to shortages of food, medicine and hand sanitiser during Covid-19. Research points to a variety of factors \u2013 both psychological and circumstantial \u2013 that drive people to stockpile in times of perceived scarcity.<\/p>\n But when that feared scarcity is unfounded rather than genuine, panic buying can \u2013 in a self-fulling prophecy \u2013 create the very shortages the behaviour is intended to insulate against.<\/p>\n Telling people not to panic leads to panic<\/p>\n Panic buying of fuel has been noted<\/a> in numerous countries<\/a> in recent weeks, with reports of some petrol stations in Australia running out of supply<\/a> and long queues of vehicles waiting to fill up.<\/p>\n Present concerns are understandable: Iran\u2019s effective closure of the strait of Hormuz, in response to the US and Israeli bombing<\/a>, has cut off 20% of the global oil supply, driving crude oil prices above US$100 a barrel. In Australia, fuel prices have increased by about 40%<\/a> since the start of the war.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen things are perceived to be in low supply \u2026 they become more valuable psychologically,\u201d says Melissa Norberg, a professor of psychology at Macquarie University.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a phenomenon called the \u201cscarcity heuristic\u201d, which is exploited to drive consumer behaviour. Dark patterns on e-commerce sites<\/a> are one example: think \u201conly one left\u201d messaging that nudges us towards adding an item to an online shopping cart.<\/p>\n During the Covid pandemic, Victoria\u2019s chief health officer, Dr Brett Sutton, advised people to consider stocking up with a fortnight\u2019s worth of non-perishables, leading to temporary shortages of pantry items such as pasta.<\/p>\n In the case of fuel, the lack of supply is also driving up objective value in the form of petrol prices, \u201cwhich then also makes it more psychologically [in demand],\u201d Norberg says.<\/p>\n An inability to tolerate distress can be a driver of panic buying, Norberg adds. \u201cIf thinking that you might not have petrol puts you into distress, or you fear that it might not be there in the future and you don\u2019t like to deal with uncertainty \u2026 that can drive people to stockpile.\u201d<\/p>\n Panic buyers do not perceive themselves as selfish, a 2021 paper<\/a> Norberg co-authored on the Covid-19 pandemic suggests. \u201c[But] there\u2019s a discrepancy between how people view themselves and how maybe others would view their behaviour, putting their desires before other people,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n Dr Karina Rune, a researcher in health and behavioural sciences at University of the Sunshine Coast, says panic buying is primarily driven by perceived risk and social norms. In her research into behaviour<\/a> during lockdowns, Rune described panic buying as \u201ca short-lived coping response to situational stress and social contagion\u201d.<\/p>\n Other research<\/a> during the pandemic, looking at 54 countries, found that the announcement of lockdown restrictions triggered bursts of consumer panic that lasted between a week and 10 days.<\/p>\n Rune\u2019s pandemic work<\/a> did not find demographic factors such as socioeconomic status were drivers of panic buying, though other studies have suggested that household income<\/a> and size<\/a> may be determinants.<\/p>\n Her research identified three key drivers of stockpiling behaviour. The first was attitude \u2013 \u201cif it feels like the smart thing to do, or a sensible thing to do\u201d \u2013 and the second was perceived risk: the view that \u201cif I don\u2019t buy extra, I might run out and that will put myself and my family at risk,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n The third factor was negative social norms, often reinforced by news reports. \u201cThe media was alight with pictures of people standing in queues, and trolleys full of toilet paper, and the message that was being sent is: this is what everyone else is doing, everyone is panic buying,\u201d Rune says. \u201cI think we see it a little bit today as well with \u2026 [reports highlighting] cars lining up and people fighting over petrol.\u201d<\/p>\n Focusing on the minority of the population who are engaging in panic buying can inadvertently encourage stockpiling behaviour by reinforcing negative \u201cdescriptive norms\u201d, according to Prof Liam Smith, director of BehaviourWorks Australia at Monash University.<\/p>\n