{"id":356227,"date":"2026-03-31T03:40:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T03:40:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/356227\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T03:40:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T03:40:08","slug":"anz-business-confidence-plunges-as-iran-conflict-fuel-costs-hit-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/356227\/","title":{"rendered":"ANZ business confidence plunges as Iran conflict, fuel costs hit outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"
The \u201cown past activity\u201d indicator fell from 23% to a net 18% of firms reporting stronger activity than a year ago, with a particularly sharp fall for retail (down 20 points to +5) and construction (down 16 points to -13).<\/p>\n
Inflation indicators were higher. The net percentage of firms expecting to raise prices in the next three months rose seven points to 60%, while the average amount by which firms expected to raise their prices rose from 2% to 2.4%.<\/p>\n
The net percentage of firms expecting cost increases \u2013 85%, up from 79% \u2013 was the highest since early 2023.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s not just anxiety about the future,\u201d Zollner said.<\/p>\n
\u201cMany firms are already reporting that their activity has taken a hit as people defer their decision-making in the face of uncertainty.\u201d<\/p>\n
The bulk of survey responses were collected the day after the Middle East conflict began, Zollner said.<\/p>\n
However, around a third of responses came in following an email reminder on March 23.<\/p>\n
While noting that because of the smaller sample size the late-month data was more volatile, it was clearly more negative.<\/p>\n
\u201cForward-looking activity indicators dropped sharply as the month went on, while cost and price indicators rose,\u201d Zollner said.<\/p>\n
Of the activity indicators, business confidence took by far the largest hit over the three weeks in question, while profit expectations also went negative.<\/p>\n
But arguably of most significance was the past own activity result, which was much weaker in the late-month sample, she said.<\/p>\n
Late-month responses averaged zero, which did not bode well for next month, she said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt was broad-based: every sector saw a sharp fall in this indicator.\u201d<\/p>\n
The fall in the activity indicators as the month went on was understandable, Zollner said.<\/p>\n
\u201c[It has] become increasingly clear that this is not a short-lived shock, but something more persistent.<\/p>\n
\u201cFirms are understandably in a mood to reduce their risk-taking \u2013 but the unfortunate truth is that one firm\u2019s risk (a purchase, an investment, a hire) is someone else\u2019s opportunity.”<\/p>\n
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.<\/p>\n