US crude oil hits $110 a barrel<\/p>\n
US crude has surged over $110 a barrel today, for the first time in over three weeks.<\/p>\n
The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate has jumped by 10% today, after US President Donald Trump vowed to hit Iran \u201cextremely hard\u201d for the next few weeks, dashing hopes of de-escalation and an early end to the conflict.<\/p>\n
US crude is trading at $111 a barrel, the highest level since 9 March.<\/p>\n
This puts a barrel of WTI above the international benchmark, Brent crude, which has jumped more than 8% to $109.32 a barrel.<\/p>\n
Although Trump pledged last night to finish the operation in Iran \u201cvery fast\u201d, traders seem disappointed by the lack of detail about how the conflict may end.<\/p>\n
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at capital.com, says:<\/p>\n
double quotation markMarkets are increasingly pushing back against the idea that Trump\u2019s latest address signals de-escalation. In fact, price action suggests the opposite.<\/p>\n
Despite attempts to frame the situation as manageable and short-lived, the tone of the speech was more consistent with a war rally, reinforcing the likelihood of further escalation rather than resolution. The renewed threats to strike Iranian energy infrastructure if negotiations fail have shifted the narrative back toward rising geopolitical risk, which is now clearly being reflected in markets.<\/p>\n
That helps explain the current configuration: oil higher, equities lower and the dollar stronger.<\/p>\n
Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a009.50 EDT<\/p>\n Key events<\/p>\n Show key events only<\/p>\n Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature<\/p>\n Closing post<\/p>\n And finally\u2026 a roller-coaster day for markets has ended with London\u2019s stock market at a one-month high!<\/p>\n The FTSE 100 share index has closed for the night up 71.5 points, or +0.7%, at 10,436 points, its highest closing point since the first week of March.<\/p>\n Stocks had fallen this morning, after hopes that Donald Trump would outline an end to the Iran war overnight were dashed, with Trump threatening to take Iran back to the \u2018stone ages\u2019.<\/p>\n But there\u2019s been a recovery this afternoon, following reports that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to oversee traffic in the strait of Hormuz (see here for details<\/a>).<\/p>\n Oil companies, and \u2018defensive stocks\u2019 such as utilities led the risers, as investors looked for safer places for their money.<\/p>\n AJ Bell head of financial analysis Danni Hewson says:<\/p>\n double quotation mark\u201cThe prospect of further escalation over the weekend has seen many investors rush to take defensive positions.<\/p>\n \u201cIn London, the focus has been on stuff people can\u2019t do without even when their cost of living is under pressure.<\/p>\n European markets closed in the red \u2013 Germany\u2019s DAX fell 0.8%, and France\u2019s CAC lost 0.4%.<\/p>\n Stocks are still lower on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrial average is currently down 104 points, or 0.23%, at 46,460 points, recovering some of its earlier losses.<\/p>\n Anxiety over the Middle East crisis drove oil up today, with US crude oil surging over $110 a barrel.<\/p>\n Brent crude has dipped back from its highs, but is still up 6% tonight at $107.17 a barrel.<\/p>\n Our Middle East liveblog has all the latest developments:<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Sputnik: Iran almost finalized draft of new navigation regime in strait of Hormuz<\/p>\n Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi has apparently told Sputnik, the Russian government-owned news agency, that Iran has nearly completed its draft protocol, which would establish a new navigation regime in the strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n Gharibabadi told Sputnik<\/a>:<\/p>\n double quotation mark\u201cThe draft of this protocol is currently in the final stages of preparation. Once we have it ready, we will begin negotiations with Oman so that we can draft a joint protocol.\u201d<\/p>\n Gharibabadi then explained that the protocol would mean that, in peacetime, all vessels that pass through the strait must have all the necessary agreements with the coastal states – Iran and Oman, and obtain the necessary permits and licenses in advance.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a011.47 EDT<\/p>\n Brent crude is now \u2018only\u2019 up 5% today at $106.40 a barrel, following reports that Iran and Oman are working on a protocol to cover travel through the strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n That\u2019s down from its earlier high of $109.74 a barrel, but still higher than the $99 at which it started the session.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Iran ‘drafting protocol with Oman’ to cover strait of Hormuz<\/p>\n Oil is dipping from its earlier highs, and stock markets are recovering losses, following a report that Iran and Oman are working on a \u2018protocol\u2019 to cover marine traffic in the strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s Reuters\u2019s newsflash:<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Some calm is returning to European stock markets.<\/p>\n In London, the FTSE 100 index is now up 87 points or 0.84% at 10,452 points, a four week high!<\/p>\n The losses on other European markets are now less dramatic too \u2013 with Germany\u2019s DAX only down 0.8% today.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n African economies face the risk of a sharper growth slowdown this year if the war in the Middle East drags on, with prolonged disruption to trade, energy and fertiliser supplies threatening to ripple across the continent, according to a report released today.<\/p>\n The report by two U.N. agencies, the African Union and the African Development Bank said African economies could lose 0.2 percentage points of GDP growth in 2026 if the conflict lasts more than six months (via Reuters).<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Share<\/a><\/p>\n The jump in oil prices today is hurting US airlines.<\/p>\n United Airlines and American Airlines are both down around 6.1%.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a010.19 EDT<\/p>\n Paints firm Sherwin-WIlliams (-3.4%) are the top faller on the Dow Jones Industrial average in early trading, reflecting fears of disruption in the oil industry.<\/p>\n They\u2019re followed by DIY firm Home-Depot (-3%), footwear firm Nike (-2.6%), and American Express (-1.8%).<\/p>\n But the surge in the oil price is good news for Chevron\u2019s investors \u2013 its stock is up 2.3%.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>US stock market drops at the openThe New York Stock Exchange. Photograph: Spencer Platt\/Getty Images<\/p>\n Wall Street has opened with a bump, as traders react to Donald Trump\u2019s address to the nation on the Iran crisis last night.<\/p>\n The Dow Jones industrial average has dropped by 624 points, or 1.3%, at the start of trading as it falls to 45,941 points (further from the 50,000 point mark hit in February<\/a>)<\/p>\n The broader S&P 500 index has dropped by 1.25% at the start of trading.<\/p>\n The sell-off highlights that investors\u2019 hopes of de-escalation, which build up earlier this week, are wilting.<\/p>\n David Morrison, senior market analyst at financial services provider Trade Nation<\/a>, says Trump signalled an escalation, not a wind-down, last night:<\/p>\n double quotation markHopes had been raised that Mr Trump would announce an end to hostilities, and this had contributed to gains across risk assets earlier in the day, building on those made on Tuesday. But the President confirmed earlier statements made by him and members of his administration, that military operations would likely continue for another two or three weeks.<\/p>\n He reiterated that US objectives in Iran were almost met but warned that the US would hit Iran \u201cvery hard\u201d and would only agree to a ceasefire once the Strait of Hormuz was \u2018open, free and clear\u2019.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a009.44 EDT<\/p>\n IMF: Trump tariffs will reduce US economic activity<\/p>\n The International Monetary Fund is warning the White House that Donald Trump\u2019s trade war will slow the US economy.<\/p>\n In its latest assessment of the US, the Fund says:<\/p>\n double quotation markDirectors expressed concern about the shift in U.S. trade policy, noting that the increase in tariffs and in trade policy uncertainty are expected to reduce U.S. activity and create sizeable negative spillovers on its trading partners.<\/p>\n The Article IV Consultation also points out that \u201ctariffs boosted goods prices\u201d, which wiped out the benefits from falling services inflation.<\/p>\n The IMF also voiced concern about the Iran war, saying:<\/p>\n double quotation markDirectors expressed concerns about the heightened domestic and global uncertainties posed by the significant ongoing policy shifts and the war in the Middle East.<\/p>\n More happily for the White House, the IMF also predicts growth will rise to 2.4% in 2026, up from 2% in 2025.<\/p>\n But\u2026, they are also calling for \u201cdetermined actions\u201d to address fiscal imbalances.<\/p>\n