beginning to increase their fuel prices<\/a>.<\/p>\nIt anticipates an eventual shortage as countries slowly burn through their bulk stocks – but as long as shipments exist somewhere in the world, the real crisis has yet to begin at all.<\/p>\n
In Fiji, retail petrol rises by 49 cents to FJ$2.93 by the litre, while diesel rises 75 cents to $2.89. Meanwhile in Samoa, petrol rises by 3.1 sene to SAM$2.85, diesel 9.9 sene to $3.09.<\/p>\n
It was a much smaller price increase in the Solomon Islands: a rise of 16 Solomon Islands cents to around SOL$9 by the litre for petrol, 38 cents to around $9.40 for diesel.<\/p>\n
Each country maintains a “keep calm and carry on” attitude, all maintaining they have adequate fuel supplies to last the next month, and likely beyond.<\/p>\n
But analysts are harbouring grim projections for countries with a high exposure to global prices, not least Pacific Island countries, many of whom depend almost entirely on fossil fuels for electricity generation.<\/p>\n
Fuel imports as a percentage of GDP range between 5 to 10 percent for most. Compared to 2024, the fuel spend in the present risks vastly outpacing GDP growth and increasing exposure significantly.<\/p>\n
Tuvalu appears in dire straits, with a uniquely high trade exposure in the region already.<\/p>\n
Fiji, the second-most exposed, has an estimated 45-90 days of fuel supply, the government reports. Finance Minister Esrom Immanuel promised zero fuel price increases before May.<\/p>\n
But by then Reserve Bank governor Ariff Ali said the next fuel shipments could translate to “almost a 50 percent increase in domestic fuel prices,” according to reporting by the Fiji Times.<\/p>\n
Zero Carbon Analytics, in a new research paper, was even more stark.<\/p>\n
“Fiji’s annual refined fuel import bill could rise by US$670 million, a 115% increase from 2025 levels, equivalent to nearly three times the country’s annual healthcare budget,” it said in a recent report.<\/p>\n
“Vanuatu’s refined petroleum import costs could surge by US$120m (11 percent of GDP), and Tonga’s by US$55m (9 percent of GDP).”<\/p>\n
It is enough to prompt Australia, a trade-exposed nation itself, to float the possibility of sharing their own fossil fuels with the region, if and where possible.<\/p>\n
ABC reported that Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong had been in discussions with ministers, sharing a promise that the Pacific would not get left behind.<\/p>\n
“We’re a responsible Pacific partner. We’ll continue to work with them and look at what we can do to support them through this.” Wong said.<\/p>\n
New Zealand has only committed to “intelligence sharing” at this stage.<\/p>\n
![\"This](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/4JTFO56_AFP__20250619__62XG2WF__v1__HighRes__CookIslandsNzealandChinaDiplomacyAid_jpg.jpeg\")
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\nThis photo taken on 15 June 2025 shows a person riding past the Parliament of the Cook Islands on the main island of Rarotonga.
\nPhoto: AFP \/ William West\n<\/p>\n
Cook Islands credit rating upgrades<\/p>\n
Standard and Poors (S&P) has been looking more favourably on the Cook Islands in recent weeks.<\/p>\n
One of the “big three” ratings agencies, S&P upgraded the Cook’s score from a “moderate” B+ to a “stronger” BB-, reflecting their expectation that: “The government’s fiscal outcomes will remain strong via prudent management.”<\/p>\n
It makes for a new feature in Prime Minister Mark Brown’s pitch to the world for greater investment in the Cooks, as they look to make better use of their vast ocean territory in order to diversify their economy.<\/p>\n
“We raised our ratings on Cook Islands because its buoyant economy is supporting strengthening fiscal metrics,” he said.<\/p>\n
“Government revenues are rising due to strong tourism flows and expenditures such as wages and capex coming in under budget. This is leading to improving general government surpluses over our forecasts.”<\/p>\n
The news came before Winston Peters travelled to the Cooks and, in a show of faith and forgiveness, [https:\/\/www.rnz.co.nz\/international\/pacific-news\/591328\/winston-peters-signs-defence-and-security-declaration-with-cook-islands-pm-mark-brown restored almost $30m in aid that it had taken away last year.<\/p>\n
That funding shortfall, now corrected, would have kept the Cooks in a budget deficit for the year, S&P noted.<\/p>\n
On the relationship, S&P felt confident New Zealand would “remain supportive”, even if it required a change of government on either end.<\/p>\n
“Relations could improve following the elections scheduled this year in both New Zealand and Cook Islands,” it noted.<\/p>\n
All the same, the Cooks suffers from fundamental constraints common in the Pacific economy, that is “weak policymaking culture, capacity constraints, and institutional settings”.<\/p>\n
Fiji is sitting at a B+ rating, Papua New Guinea is sitting at a B-.<\/p>\n
![\"no](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/4N3LBT2_image_crop_90392.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n
\nThe World Bank has financed PNG to the tune of US$880m between 2008 and 2023, according to the Lowy Institute.
\nPhoto: Beata Zawrzel\/NurPhoto\n<\/p>\n
World Bank critical of PNG’s mining sector<\/p>\n
A partnership renewal announcement by the World Bank for Papua New Guinea came with harsh criticisms attached – both explicit and implicit.<\/p>\n
The World Bank has financed PNG to the tune of US$880m between 2008 and 2023, according to the Lowy Institute.<\/p>\n
That amount of aid money carries political influence, and the World Bank is hoping to use it to steer PNG towards a “dividend policy” where a certain level of proceeds from mineral extraction are guaranteed for public benefit.<\/p>\n
“Despite a boom in mining, government revenues from the resource sector have averaged just ~1.9 percent of GDP over the past decade. The report shows there’s significant untapped fiscal potential if deals, transparency, and tax systems improve,” the World Bank noted.<\/p>\n
“The report shows reforms could unlock -5.8 percent of GDP in revenue plus efficiency gains, enough to fund a major scale-up in services which would mean better health, education and social outcomes for Papua New Guineans.”<\/p>\n
RNZ Pacific asked the PNG Branch director, Hans Fraeters, what means he had at his disposal to influence policymaking in PNG.<\/p>\n
Fraeters said that rather than lean on their influence as a state financier, he hoped to earn public and political trust through the efficacy of their work in the country.<\/p>\n
“We are doubling our efforts to finance the economy through public financing, we will be doing more efforts to support the private sector, to create jobs and make make it easier for entrepreneurs,” he said.<\/p>\n
“Overtime, if we do a good job, we will be able to influence the public debate.”<\/p>\n
Fraeters said he had “continuous personal engagement” with senior government officials and business figures.<\/p>\n
“We are very committed to the transparency agenda, and we will seek to incorporate that in our policy dialogue,” he said.<\/p>\n
-This is the 4th edition of the Pacific Business Brief.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Pacific Business Brief tracks the capital, trade and trends shaping the regional economy. Photo: RNZ Pacific \/…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":326581,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[48,47,111,43,139,69,49,46,44,45],"class_list":{"0":"post-361014","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-new-zealand","8":"tag-audio","9":"tag-current-affairs","10":"tag-new-zealand","11":"tag-news","12":"tag-newzealand","13":"tag-nz","14":"tag-podcasts","15":"tag-public-radio","16":"tag-radio-new-zealand","17":"tag-rnz"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/361014","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=361014"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/361014\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/326581"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=361014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=361014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=361014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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