Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen told Breakfast today the Reserve Bank would likely hold the rate at its current 2.25%, and avoid a \u201cknee jerk\u201d reaction to what remains an uncertain situation.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor the Reserve Bank, they don\u2019t want to be sort of switching track from one to another every time there is some new news. They\u2019re wanting to effectively look through that short-term instability, in case things change, in case you do see the Strait of Hormuz open.\u201d<\/p>\n
Olsen said the Reserve Bank is also clear when they\u2019re looking at inflation, \u201cwhat they are worried about is if there was persistence\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s where things went wrong a couple of years back. We had so much economic activity in the system that every business was trying to increase their prices. <\/p>\n
![\"Composite](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/ocr-472STYQ3HRBBXABPTRD7WNBQUU.jpg\")
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Composite image: Vania Chandrawidjaja (Source: istock.com)<\/p>\n
\u201cThis time around, the economy is a lot weaker, businesses might try but for the moment the Reserve Bank will be hoping with fewer sales about that businesses across the country just simply won\u2019t be able to increase prices to the same degree, and so hopefully core inflation will be restrained.\u201d<\/p>\n
Similarly, ASB senior economist Mark Smith said in a report published last week the Reserve Bank \u201cseem in little hurry to move the OCR and are content to look through the short-term inflation impacts of the Iran shock\u201d.<\/p>\n
For the medium-term, Smith said a 0.25% OCR hike in December was expected, and 0.75% of OCR hikes from early 2027 have been pencilled in \u2013 with risks of \u201cmore pronounced\u201d hikes if New Zealand\u2019s inflation outlook trends higher.<\/p>\n