{"id":367675,"date":"2026-04-07T10:35:08","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T10:35:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/367675\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T10:35:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T10:35:08","slug":"strongest-el-nino-in-a-century-what-this-rare-phenomenon-could-bring","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/367675\/","title":{"rendered":"Strongest El Ni\u00f1o in a century? What this rare phenomenon could bring"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"jfCtLXHy\" style=\"display:none\">For example, the Western United States, parts of Africa, Europe and India could face a hotter-than-average summer, some tropical countries, such as those in the Caribbean and Indonesia, could face worse drought and extreme heat, while more tropical cyclones could develop in the Pacific, with fewer in the Atlantic.<\/p>\n<p class=\"jfCtLXHy\" style=\"display:none\">This possible super El Ni\u00f1o could also push global temperatures to record levels, particularly in 2027, and have agricultural impacts as weather patterns change.<\/p>\n<p class=\"jfCtLXHy\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cReal potential for the strongest El Ni\u00f1o event in 140 years,\u201d wrote Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the State University of New York at Albany.<\/p>\n<p>Global impacts from a super El Ni\u00f1o<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"This year\u2019s potential super El Ni\u00f1o seems increasingly likely to have wide-reaching climate impacts that last into 2027. Illustration \/ Getty Images\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>This year\u2019s potential super El Ni\u00f1o seems increasingly likely to have wide-reaching climate impacts that last into 2027. Illustration \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"jfCtLXHy\" style=\"display:none\">This year\u2019s potential super El Ni\u00f1o seems increasingly likely to have wide-reaching climate impacts that last into 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"jfCtLXHy\" style=\"display:none\">It could break the record for El Ni\u00f1o intensity set in December 2015, when sea temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific reached 2.8C above average.<\/p>\n<p class=\"jfCtLXHy\" style=\"display:none\">Still, even as some signs point to a potent event, including a rare triplet-cyclone pattern brewing in the Pacific, uncertainty remains as to how strong this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o will become. Furthermore, no two El Ni\u00f1o events are alike &#8211; especially as the climate warms &#8211; but past experiences can be used to help plan and prepare.<\/p>\n<p class=\"jfCtLXHy\" style=\"display:none\">Here are some of the weather impacts predicted to unfold through to at least October, according to the newest model outlook.<\/p>\n<p>Reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean and possible drought in the Caribbean islands. Increased hurricane and typhoon risk in the Pacific Ocean, including Hawaii, Guam and much of eastern Asia.Potential drought in central and northern India, suppressing rainfall from that region\u2019s monsoon season, which could impact agricultural production.Above-average summer temperatures and humidity in the Western United States, possibly coming with unusual downpours, which may reach into the Plains and extend severe thunderstorm season.Developing droughts in portions of Central Africa, Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, some South Pacific islands, Central America and northern Brazil, particularly later in the year. Flooding downpours in Peru and Ecuador, parts of northern and eastern Africa, the Middle East and near the equator in the Pacific.Higher frequency of heat waves across large parts of South America, the southern United States, Africa, Europe, parts of the Middle East, India and eventually Australia.New global temperature records &#8211; especially in 2027 &#8211; probably breaking records set in 2024.<img  alt=\"The remains of homes in Savusavu, on the south coast of Vanua Levu island, after Tropical Cyclone Yasa tore through Fiji in December 2020. Photo \/ Tinnah Tagiteci \" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>The remains of homes in Savusavu, on the south coast of Vanua Levu island, after Tropical Cyclone Yasa tore through Fiji in December 2020. Photo \/ Tinnah Tagiteci <\/p>\n<p class=\"jfCtLXHy\" style=\"display:none\">The strongest El Ni\u00f1o events almost always cause a record-warm year. That\u2019s because heat comes out of the ocean during El Ni\u00f1o, overspreads the tropics in the Pacific, then gets redistributed across the planet by changes in the jet streams.<\/p>\n<p class=\"jfCtLXHy\" style=\"display:none\">This could contribute to milder winter temperatures in the United States &#8211; and big storms along the West Coast &#8211; as the impacts of El Ni\u00f1o reach a peak from the end of the year into early 2027.<\/p>\n<p>As the planet warms, El Ni\u00f1o behaves differently<\/p>\n<p class=\"jfCtLXHy\" style=\"display:none\">Strong El Ni\u00f1o periods often appear as an upward stairstep in long-term plots of global temperatures.<\/p>\n<p class=\"jfCtLXHy\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cDue to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, the climate system cannot effectively exhaust the heat released in a major El Ni\u00f1o event before the next El Ni\u00f1o comes along and pushes the baseline upward again,\u201d US Defence Department meteorologist Eric Webb said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"jfCtLXHy\" style=\"display:none\">Therefore, a super El Ni\u00f1o in 2026-27 would disperse more heat than other events in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.<\/p>\n<p class=\"jfCtLXHy\" style=\"display:none\">Not only would a super El Ni\u00f1o spread unusual heat and humidity far and wide, but it may also spark record atmospheric moisture flows, which drive downpours that raise the risk for floods. That\u2019s because a warmer atmosphere has a higher moisture-carrying capacity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"For example, the Western United States, parts of Africa, Europe and India could face a hotter-than-average summer, some&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":367676,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[3225,3021,15364,31578,124,83585,273,5616,78,18087,1432,111,139,192804,69,11673,192805,8205,801,147,39879,313,1961,62126,686,6923,379],"class_list":{"0":"post-367675","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment","8":"tag-according","9":"tag-bring","10":"tag-century","11":"tag-chances","12":"tag-could","13":"tag-el","14":"tag-environment","15":"tag-forecast","16":"tag-in","17":"tag-issued","18":"tag-model","19":"tag-new-zealand","20":"tag-newzealand","21":"tag-nio","22":"tag-nz","23":"tag-phenomenon","24":"tag-planetwarming","25":"tag-rare","26":"tag-rising","27":"tag-science","28":"tag-strongest","29":"tag-super","30":"tag-this","31":"tag-updated","32":"tag-week","33":"tag-what","34":"tag-year"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/367675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=367675"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/367675\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/367676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=367675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=367675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=367675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}