The latest Taxpayers Union-Curia poll shows National slightly up – but still below 30%, and Labour slightly down, with the coalition parties comfortably able to form a government.<\/p>\n
Labour on 33.4% is still above National on 29.8%.<\/p>\n
But with New Zealand First up about 4 points to 13.6%, and Act up 1.5 points to 9%, the coalition would have 65 seats to the opposition’s 55.<\/p>\n
The Greens were down nearly 3 points to about 8%, and Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori is down half a point to 2.6%.<\/p>\n
The Opportunity Party was the only minor party outside Parliament to register, up half a point to 2.6%.<\/p>\n
At the start of March, the Taxpayers’ Union\/Curia poll\u00a0had National on 28.4 percent\u00a0– down nearly three percentage points from the month before. The\u00a0latest RNZ\/Reid Research poll\u00a0had the party on 30.8 percent, also trending downwards.<\/p>\n
Both March polls had National behind Labour, which polled 34.4 percent in the Taxpayers’ Union\/Curia poll and 35.6 percent according to RNZ\/Reid Research.<\/p>\n
The\u00a0latest Roy Morgan poll, released at the end of March, had National on 26.5 percent and Labour on 34 percent.<\/p>\n
Recent polling has generally had support for the left (Labour, Greens and Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori) and right (National, ACT and NZ First) blocs finely balanced.<\/p>\n
The general election is scheduled to be held on November 7.<\/p>\n
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders (700 by phone and 300 online) and is weighted to the overall adult population.<\/p>\n
It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online, has a maximum margin of error of +\/- 3.1 percent.<\/p>\n
Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand, which has resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body.<\/p>\n
Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.<\/p>\n
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