{"id":37523,"date":"2025-09-22T23:30:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-22T23:30:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/37523\/"},"modified":"2025-09-22T23:30:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-22T23:30:08","slug":"breakfast-briefing-eye-of-the-storm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/37523\/","title":{"rendered":"Breakfast briefing: Eye of the storm"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Here&#8217;s our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news eyes are on the Pearl River delta region today as Super Typhoon Ragasa aims for a direct hit.<\/p>\n<p>But first up, we can report that the US <a href=\"https:\/\/www.chicagofed.org\/research\/data\/cfnai\/current-data\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">National Activity Index<\/a> as collated by the Chicago Fed, was less negative in August, extending the negative trend to five consecutive months. But the July data was revised lower.<\/p>\n<p>There were Fed speakers out overnight. Miran made the lone case in favour of Trump&#8217;s big slash, whereas Hammack, Barkin, Williams, Musalem, and earlier Daly, all made the case for eyeing inflation risks as well as jobs risks.<\/p>\n<p>In Canada, their <a href=\"https:\/\/www150.statcan.gc.ca\/n1\/daily-quotidien\/250922\/dq250922a-eng.htm\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">producer prices rose<\/a> faster, now up +4.0% from a year ago, largely on the impacts of the US tariff-taxes where Canadian substituted other components than American ones. But beef prices are a notable riser in this latest data.<\/p>\n<p>The People\u2019s Bank of China kept its key lending rates <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pbc.gov.cn\/rmyh\/108976\/index.html#LPR\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">unchanged<\/a> at record lows for the fourth straight month yesterday, as expected. The 1-year loan prime rate remained at 3.0%, while the 5-year benchmark stayed at 3.5%.<\/p>\n<p>In China, they <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yicaiglobal.com\/news\/china-caps-steel-industry-growth-at-4-in-2026-27-to-tackle-overcapacity\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a> they will limit the steel industry&#8217;s growth to 4% over the next two years to deal with their severe over-capacity problem and force companies to invest in quality rather than volume gains.<\/p>\n<p>And the fast growing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.caixinglobal.com\/2025-09-22\/energy-insider-china-europe-rail-freight-suspended-102364812.html\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">rail land-bridge from China to Europe is closing<\/a>, essentially because the Poland-Belarus border is being sealed to guard against Russian infiltration. It is hard to see Beijing being happy about that.<\/p>\n<p>Hong Kong authorities are bracing for \u201cserious threats\u201d posed by the looming <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hko.gov.hk\/en\/probfcst\/tc_spm.htm\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Super Typhoon Ragasa<\/a>, which is expected to bring hurricane-force winds with speeds of up to 220 km\/h over the next few days, potentially breaking a record set during Saola in 2023. Their airport is likely to close, along with much else including their stock market. And mass evacuations have started in neighbouring Shenzhen.<\/p>\n<p>This is what the Hong Kong official met service <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hko.gov.hk\/en\/index.html\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">warned<\/a> late last night. &#8220;Under the influence of significant storm surge, there will be a rise in water level of about 2 metres over coastal areas of Hong Kong in the morning of Wednesday. The maximum water level can generally reach around 3.5 to 4 metres above chart datum, and the water level at Tolo Harbour may even reach 4 to 5 metres above chart datum. Members of the public should take appropriate precautions.&#8221; A 5 metre storm surge seems pretty significant.<\/p>\n<p>In Europe, and despite political and tariff uncertainties, <a href=\"https:\/\/economy-finance.ec.europa.eu\/document\/download\/6c7e42b9-bad4-4b84-bb9a-998b490ffb2b_en?filename=Flash_consumer_2025_09_en.pdf\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">consumer sentiment &#8216;rose&#8217;<\/a> (that is, got less bad) in September, probably because both inflation and borrowing costs eased in the past month.<\/p>\n<p>The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, unchanged from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +55 bps. Their 1-5 curve is no longer inverted, now positive by +9 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is now +5 bps positive. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.88%, up +1 bp. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.28, up +3 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just under 4.27%, and up +4 bps from yesterday.<\/p>\n<p>Wall Street has started its week up +0.4% on the S&amp;P500 and a new all-time high. Euro[pean markets were mixed to start their week with London up +0.1% but Frankfurt down -0.5%. Tokyo ended its Monday session uo a full +1.0% and also a new ATH. Hong Kong however fell -0.2% but Shanghai was up +0.2%. Singapore dipped -0.1%. The ASX200 ended with a +0.4% gain but the NZX50 retreated a sharpish -0.7%.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.interest.co.nz\/charts\/commodities\/precious-metals\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The price of gold<\/a> will start today at US$3736\/oz, up +US$52 from yesterday and a new ATH. Silver had another +US$1 spurt overnight, now up over US$44\/oz to a 14 year high.<\/p>\n<p>American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$62.50\/bbl, with the international Brent price still just over US$66.50\/bbl.<\/p>\n<p>The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.7 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are still just under 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 65.9, up +10 bps.<\/p>\n<p>The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,448 and down -2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +\/- 1.4%.<\/p>\n<p>Select chart tabs<\/p>\n<p>                          US$<br \/>\n                            AU$<br \/>\n                            TWI<br \/>\n                            \u00a5en<br \/>\n                            \u00a5uan<br \/>\n                            \u20acuro<br \/>\n                            GBP<br \/>\n                            Bitcoin<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\">\n  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interest.co.nz\/rural-news\/soil-moisture-animation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><br \/>\n    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/1757538247_376_soil-moisture-2025-08-29.gif\" title=\"click to go to animation page\"\/><\/a>\n<\/p>\n<p>The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interest.co.nz\/economic-calendar\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Economic Calendar here \u00bb<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interest.co.nz\/supporters\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/what-do-you-think-11.jpg\" style=\"width: 760px; height: 147px;\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Here&#8217;s our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news eyes are on the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":14659,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-37523","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37523","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37523"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37523\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14659"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37523"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37523"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37523"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}