{"id":375448,"date":"2026-04-12T04:12:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-12T04:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/375448\/"},"modified":"2026-04-12T04:12:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-12T04:12:09","slug":"reserve-bank-governors-warning-on-inflation-amid-fragile-ceasefire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/375448\/","title":{"rendered":"Reserve Bank Governor&#8217;s warning on inflation amid fragile ceasefire"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman says near-term inflation will be higher than expected but warns the bank&#8217;s own 4.2% forecast for the July quarter is built on assumptions that are already shifting.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.1news.co.nz\/2026\/04\/12\/us-iran-hold-historic-talks-in-pakistan-on-wars-fragile-ceasefire\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Peace talks between the US and Iran are underway in Pakistan<\/a>, but on the other side of the world, New Zealand was operating in an environment of economic uncertainty. <\/p>\n<p>It is in these circumstances that the Reserve Bank&#8217;s monetary policy committee <a href=\"https:\/\/www.1news.co.nz\/2026\/04\/08\/ocr-live-updates-war-abroad-oil-shock-looms-over-todays-rate-call\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">held the official cash rate (OCR) at 2.25%<\/a> on Wednesday &#8211; on the same day an unexpected and tenuous two-week ceasefire was reached in the Middle East. <\/p>\n<p>Breman told Q+A today that while inflation is now forecast to rise in the short term, whether these changes are &#8220;embedded in the economy&#8221; remains to be seen. <\/p>\n<p class=\"text-greyDarkFaded\">Reserve Bank says the global picture has changed markedly since the\u00a0previous\u00a0update in February.\u00a0 (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n<p>The bank&#8217;s 4.2% forecast was based on oil futures markets, which at the time expected prices to stay elevated but fall below US$100 a barrel by the end of June.<\/p>\n<p>But <a href=\"https:\/\/www.1news.co.nz\/2026\/04\/11\/jason-walls-reserve-bank-governor-promised-to-be-open-so-far-so-good\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Breman<\/a> said there was &#8220;so much uncertainty&#8221; around the outlook, with new information arriving daily \u2014 including shifting news about a ceasefire in the days since the bank&#8217;s most recent monetary policy decision.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Any forecast you put out right now is highly uncertain,&#8221; she said. &#8220;Already now we&#8217;ve seen the oil price coming back a little bit, then it&#8217;s been going up. What we&#8217;re saying is that this is based on some assumptions, but it&#8217;s highly uncertain. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We do know that near-term inflation will be higher than what we expected at our last meeting in February.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The Reserve Bank is charged with keeping medium-term inflation between 1% and 3%. <\/p>\n<p>MPC vote transparency considered<\/p>\n<p>Breman started her tenure as governor in December 2025 and committed the Reserve Bank to greater transparency in its monetary policy decision making. <\/p>\n<p class=\"text-greyDarkFaded\">Holding pattern is in line with what economists and the financial markets expected.      (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n<p>She arrived last year in the wake of leadership turmoil, with former governor Adrian Orr, chairperson Neil Quigley and acting governor Christian Hawkesby all leaving the bank.<\/p>\n<p>Breman said she has not spoken to Orr about monetary policy. <\/p>\n<p>Unlike at Sweden&#8217;s Riksbank, where Breman previously served as first deputy governor, the six members of the Reserve Bank&#8217;s monetary policy committee, which makes OCR decisions, keep their individual votes secret. <\/p>\n<p>The new governor of New Zealand&#8217;s bank said this policy was currently under discussion, and the Reserve Bank was &#8220;almost ready&#8221; to announce any changes. <\/p>\n<p>Cash consultation and legal questions<\/p>\n<p>The Reserve Bank was also currently consulting on whether to make it mandatory for banks to maintain cash services. <\/p>\n<p>On the ongoing consultation on cash access in regional communities, Breman said more than 4000 people had submitted feedback and the response had been largely positive.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Cash is important to people. Cash is important for people with disabilities that might not be able to use all the modern, digital solutions. It&#8217;s important for crisis preparedness.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>But pressed on whether the bank had the statutory authority to mandate banks to maintain cash services, she declined to give a definitive answer.<\/p>\n<p>She said the bank would release more information on the legal basis &#8220;within a couple of weeks&#8221; and said its preferred approach was a voluntary arrangement with banks.<\/p>\n<p>For the full interview, watch the video above<\/p>\n<p>Q+A with Jack Tame is made with the support of New Zealand On Air <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman says near-term inflation will be higher than expected but warns the bank&#8217;s own&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":375449,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69,135],"class_list":{"0":"post-375448","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-new-zealand","11":"tag-newzealand","12":"tag-nz","13":"tag-politics"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/375448","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=375448"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/375448\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/375449"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=375448"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=375448"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=375448"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}