{"id":376647,"date":"2026-04-13T01:25:08","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T01:25:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/376647\/"},"modified":"2026-04-13T01:25:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T01:25:08","slug":"anz-now-tips-three-rbnz-ocr-hikes-starting-in-july","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/376647\/","title":{"rendered":"ANZ now tips three RBNZ OCR hikes, starting in July"},"content":{"rendered":"
ANZ had previously been forecasting the first hike in December.<\/p>\n
After \u201csolid hints\u201d in last week\u2019s statement, Zollner said she expected the RBNZ to conclude \u201cthe risks of going too late outweigh the risks of hiking too soon, as long as the OCR is not considered contractionary.\u201d<\/p>\n
At 3%, the OCR would still be in the RBNZ\u2019s neutral range.<\/p>\n
Even with the OCR still relatively low, at 3%, the hikes would be \u201cvery potent\u201d, Zollner said.<\/p>\n
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said the RBNZ committee would not want to repeat the mistake of the Covid era. Photo \/ Corey Fleming<\/p>\n
\u201cTherefore, we are no longer forecasting the OCR will need to increase to 3.5% \u2013 we are flat-lining it at 3%.”<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, ASB economists now expect the RBNZ will start to raise the OCR in September 2026 (previously December) to an OCR endpoint of 3.25% by mid-2027.<\/p>\n
Financial markets have been more aggressive in pricing in rate hikes for some time.<\/p>\n
As of the weekend, New Zealand rate markets were pricing a 35% chance of a hike at the next Reserve Bank meeting on 27 May, and a 95% chance by July.<\/p>\n
ANZ sees persistent demand-side impacts of high petrol prices, dampening incomes and confidence enough to \u201ctake the heat out of the medium-term inflation picture\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is not a given that hiking the OCR this year will prove to have been the right thing to do, in the fullness of time [insofar as we will ever know],\u201d Zollner said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe demand-side hit from this negative national income shock should not be underestimated; nor should the tightening in financial conditions already seen.\u201d<\/p>\n
But Zollner pointed to the hawkish lines in last week\u2019s MPR as evidence that the RBNZ was starting to show concern about the need to head off inflation.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Monetary Policy Committee is focused on ensuring that inflation returns to the 2% target midpoint over the medium term,\u201c last week\u2019s statement said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis requires core inflation and wage growth to remain contained and medium- and long-term inflation expectations to remain around 2%. If these conditions are not met, decisive and timely increases in the OCR would be required.\u201d<\/p>\n
The RBNZ is currently forecasting the annual inflation rate (currently 3.1%) to rise to 4.2% in the second quarter of the year.<\/p>\n
Zollner said she couldn\u2019t stress the uncertainty of the outlook enough. <\/p>\n
\u201cA July kick-off for hikes is not a high-conviction view; it is just what we currently see as the single likeliest timing as we stare into the murk.<\/p>\n
\u201cTake everyone\u2019s forecast with a generous pinch of salt \u2013 including both ours and the Reserve Bank\u2019s. That\u2019s just the world we find ourselves in.”<\/p>\n
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.<\/p>\n