{"id":382221,"date":"2026-04-16T09:14:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T09:14:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/382221\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T09:14:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T09:14:09","slug":"reinz-march-house-price-index-market-treads-water-amid-war-jitters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/382221\/","title":{"rendered":"REINZ March House Price Index: Market treads water amid war jitters"},"content":{"rendered":"National inventory levels rose modestly by 2.1% from last year to 37,638 properties, reinforcing that there has been no significant lift in sellers entering the market, despite recent global uncertainty.<\/p>\n
\u201cMarch shows a housing market holding its nerve. Despite rising fuel costs and global uncertainty, buyers didn\u2019t step away, but they are becoming more cautious and taking longer to make decisions,\u201d REINZ chief executive Lizzy Ryley said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat caution is reflected in the numbers. Sales were essentially flat year-on-year at 7853, and while prices remain stable, the seasonally adjusted figures show a slight dip in activity. It suggests buyers are still active, but are more measured, responding to cost pressures rather than stepping away from the market,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
The House Price Index is the preferred measure of the property market for economists as data on median and average house prices are open to being skewed by market composition changes.<\/p>\n
It accounts for compositional changes and \u201cprovides a more accurate measure of underlying value trends\u201d, REINZ said.<\/p>\n
The House Price Index eased slightly over the month to 3641 and remains 14.9% below its peak.<\/p>\n
In March, the index declined 0.3% nationally. The Auckland region was down 0.5%.<\/p>\n
In Auckland Central, the index fell 0.9%. Meanwhile, Wait\u0101kere rose 1.1%.<\/p>\n
Outside of Auckland, Hamilton City had the biggest monthly fall, down 2.6% and Wellington was down 1.1%.<\/p>\n
In the South Island, where the market has been much stronger in the past year, Invercargill saw the biggest rise, with the index up 2.5% there. Christchurch was off 0.1% and Dunedin was up 1.1%. The Queenstown-Lakes District was up 3.3% in March.<\/p>\n
The housing market had tracked sideways in March, with no clear direction in sales, prices or the stock of properties for sale, Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said.<\/p>\n
\u201cGiven that REINZ\u2019s data is based on sales going unconditional, it is likely that this holding pattern largely reflects economic conditions prior to the Iran war, when the economy\u2019s patchy recovery had yet to really gain more widespread momentum,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn general, uncertainty generated by the Iran war and the conflict\u2019s dampening effect on the anticipated economic recovery are likely to weigh on the housing market in the coming months.\u201d<\/p>\n
ANZ senior economist Miles Workman noted the housing market in Auckland and Wellington appeared to have turned a corner, based on the momentum through summer.<\/p>\n
\u201cOverall, momentum in sales appears to have flattened,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat said, relative to our expectations, today\u2019s data suggest the housing market was carrying a smidgen more momentum heading into the oil price shock.\u201d<\/p>\n
However, with mortgage rates and broader economic uncertainty rising, and inventories still elevated, ANZ continues to expect some softening over the months ahead.<\/p>\n
It forecasts house prices to fall a modest 2% over 2026.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe focus now shifts to what happens next,\u201d REINZ\u2019s Ryley said.<\/p>\n
\u201cAny early signs of a ceasefire have been overshadowed by renewed tensions, leaving uncertainty around fuel costs for New Zealand households and whether confidence begins to rebuild over the coming months.\u201d<\/p>\n
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.<\/p>\n
Stay ahead with the latest market moves, corporate updates, and economic insights by subscribing to our Business newsletter<\/a> \u2013 your essential weekly round-up of all the business news you need.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"National inventory levels rose modestly by 2.1% from last year to 37,638 properties, reinforcing that there has been…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":382222,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[1443,60698,534,138,3470,2516,3105,638,1351,10053,3339,23500,13986,14995,16609,302,86649,700,1535,225,5969,111,139,69,3333,6115,25594,667,1305,29307,198660,6149,376],"class_list":{"0":"post-382221","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-about","9":"tag-although","10":"tag-amid","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-clear","13":"tag-concern","14":"tag-data","15":"tag-estate","16":"tag-had","17":"tag-house","18":"tag-housing","19":"tag-impact","20":"tag-index","21":"tag-institute","22":"tag-iran","23":"tag-its","24":"tag-jitters","25":"tag-latest","26":"tag-march","27":"tag-market","28":"tag-much","29":"tag-new-zealand","30":"tag-newzealand","31":"tag-nz","32":"tag-price","33":"tag-real","34":"tag-reinz","35":"tag-sales","36":"tag-show","37":"tag-subdued","38":"tag-treads","39":"tag-war","40":"tag-water"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/382221","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=382221"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/382221\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/382222"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=382221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=382221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=382221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}