There\u2019s no formal doing of the numbers. Detractors desire that Luxon, faced with the fact that he\u2019s lost or is losing his internal mandate, might just resign with dignity.<\/p>\n
Of course, they would say that.<\/p>\n
While there are plenty of people who want to be the National Party leader, no one wants to get their hands dirty. It\u2019s not that these MPs are lazy, but they judge, correctly, that a bloody leadership battle wouldn\u2019t just undermine the leadership of Luxon, it could taint the leadership of anyone who followed him.<\/p>\n
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon addressed questions about his leadership on Friday. Photo \/ Dean Purcell<\/p>\n
If you\u2019re to turn National around and fight a difficult election against the backdrop of economic headwinds, you need to start with as much political capital as possible. You probably don\u2019t get that political capital by seizing the leadership in a messy, bloody contest. In fact, doing so may mean the next leaders begin the job with less political capital than Luxon.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s why the resignation aspect is so important.<\/p>\n
But Luxon seems very unlikely to resign.<\/p>\n
He lacks many things, but self-confidence is not one of them.<\/p>\n
It is not in his nature to quit. The only way he would resign is if he were faced with concrete evidence he had lost not just a majority of caucus, but a clear, large majority.<\/p>\n
He would resign then only because his only other option was to lose the leadership in a bloody, humiliating struggle. He\u2019d be remembered as the leader who clung to power so long he had to be dragged out of the Beehive by his own MPs.<\/p>\n
While it is possible that Luxon has lost the support of a majority of caucus (some MPs spoken to by the Herald and other media reckon this is true), it may also be true that no single candidate has the numbers to replace Luxon.<\/p>\n
This makes it harder for any challenger to trigger a vote, because there is a decent chance they might lose it. Even people who fancy a change might not support a challenge if it\u2019s led by the wrong person.<\/p>\n
Again, that is why so much emphasis is being put on Luxon stepping aside. Once the status quo is no longer an option, it becomes far easier for Luxon\u2019s challengers to shore up the numbers.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s also why there is no coup \u2013 and no formal challenge.<\/p>\n
What is going on isn\u2019t a case of swapping one person for another, but forcing Luxon to realise he can\u2019t go on as it is.<\/p>\n
Not only do MPs not collectively want to get their hands dirty. No one potential leader wants to be the one who does the rolling for fear that that person will not be the one who ends up as leader.<\/p>\n
National MPs, keen watchers of Australian politics, will well remember that while Peter Dutton led the charge to roll Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in 2018<\/a>, it was Treasurer Scott Morrison, the man who stood beside Turnbull saying \u201cthis is my leader and I\u2019m ambitious for him\u201d, who eventually walked away with the leadership only days later.<\/p>\n Luxon himself ended up as the leader after Simon Bridges\u2019 attempt to roll Judith Collins ended up torching them both<\/a>.<\/p>\n Could the avowals of loyalty from Nicola Willis, Morrison\u2019s equivalent in the New Zealand system, be read the same way?<\/p>\n \u201cThe hand that wields the knife shall never wear the crown\u201d, as the adage goes. It has a domestic corollary, which is that candidates don\u2019t necessarily seek the leadership, but if it were to \u201cpop out the back of the scrum\u201d then it would be unsporting not to take it.<\/p>\n That\u2019s also true of rumoured leadership contender Chris Bishop. He too isn\u2019t doing the numbers and pledged loyalty to Luxon in interviews yesterday morning, but if the ball popped out from the scrum, it\u2019s clear he\u2019d try to get his hands on it.<\/p>\n Detractors continue to point towards Luxon\u2019s poor performance in public, which diminishes the public\u2019s confidence in a time of national crisis. After his roundly criticised first press conference on the Iran war, in which he struggled to articulate a position on whether the United States could carpet bomb Iran, Luxon has tended to front updates with other ministers.<\/a> <\/p>\n On Wednesday, with Willis in Washington DC, Luxon fronted the update alone. He was flummoxed when asked questions about a delayed shipment of fuel, saying he was \u201conly aware of it in a cursory thing because [the Herald] brought it up [sic]\u201d.<\/p>\n This was despite the delayed shipment being flagged in a press release before Luxon\u2019s stand-up.<\/p>\n These repeated gaffes erode confidence.<\/p>\n Scott Morrison pledging support for then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull days before Turnbull was rolled and Morrison became leader. Photo \/ via Twitter<\/p>\n
Finance Minister Nicola Willis (right) has been out jogging in Washington DC with other Finance Ministers. Photo \/ Instagram<\/p>\n