{"id":387551,"date":"2026-04-19T17:59:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-19T17:59:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/387551\/"},"modified":"2026-04-19T17:59:15","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T17:59:15","slug":"state-of-origin-stock-market-update-five-players-rise-five-drop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/387551\/","title":{"rendered":"State of Origin stock market update: Five players rise, five drop"},"content":{"rendered":"

Like it or not, but State of Origin<\/a> is not too far away.<\/p>\n

With Origin 1 scheduled for the 27th of May, the Blue\/Maroon shadow is starting to be cast.<\/p>\n

There is still plenty of time for Origin jumpers to be won and lost, but today we’re here to look at work done thus far.<\/p>\n

Heading into the season, I put together two predicted Origin sides, which I update every few weeks. Safe to say they look very different now than they did back in February.<\/p>\n

We are going to look at five players who have seen their Origin stocks rise. Either they performances or circumstances (sometimes both) have seen their likelihood of Origin selection rise.<\/p>\n

Of course with the good, also comes the bad, as we look at five players who have seen their stocks fall.<\/p>\n

Let us know in the comments who you believe is now closer, or further away, from an Origin debut than a month ago.<\/p>\n

Here are five players whose Origin stocks have risen, and five who have seen their Origin stocks fall:<\/p>\n

Stocks Rising<\/p>\n

Blayke Brailey
Blayke Brailey<\/a> has emerged as the best hooker in the competition not named Harry Grant<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Last year the Blues<\/a> really lacked creativity in the number nine role as Reece Robson<\/a> struggled to get anything going in attack.<\/p>\n

Brailey’s seven try assists in six games and 97% tackle percentage put him far above his competitors right now.<\/p>\n

He was always a favourite to unseed Robson but many had him being Wayde Egan<\/a> and Apisai Koroisau<\/a> pre-season. That can no longer be stated.<\/p>\n

Haumole Olakau’atu
I put an early NSW Origin 19 together about three weeks ago and the Manly star wasn’t on the list.<\/p>\n

He, and the Sea Eagles, have been completely re-energised since the swap at coach, and now the Blues<\/a> simply have to find a spot for the 2024 rep.<\/p>\n

I have two second rowers in front of him but I can’t see a world in which Olakau’atu isn’t in the 19. Especially now that Liam Martin<\/a> is injured.<\/p>\n

His past two weeks have seen him run for 272 and 182 metres. He’s coming into supreme form at the right time.<\/p>\n

Jackson Ford
This is the easiest entry on the list as in the pre-season, you couldn’t buy stocks in Jackson Ford’s Origin chances. They were almost zero.<\/p>\n

Now though, on the back of a Dally M Medal leading opening six weeks, the Warriors star would consider himself extremely unlucky to miss out.<\/p>\n

Through six rounds he’s averaging almost 175 metres, tackling at 94%, has three tries and four line breaks. He’s perfect for the new, faster game.<\/p>\n

Many don’t have him in the 19 right now but they probably should!<\/p>\n

Jacob Preston
Liam Martin’s injury and Angus Crichton’s form struggles play a part in why Preston’s name appears here, but it’s only a tiny part.<\/p>\n

I believe Preson should have played for the Kangaroos in the Ashes tour. He deserved it!<\/p>\n

He should debut for the Blues<\/a> this year based on his incredible start to the season. I’d start him. I don’t see many arguments against it.<\/p>\n

The Blues<\/a> have to find a spot for some new blood and right now Preston is absolutely demanding selection!<\/p>\n

Campbell Graham
With Zac Lomax<\/a> moving onto the other code, a wing spot is very much open for the Blues<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Mark Nawaqanitawase<\/a> is probably favourite, while Jacob Kiraz<\/a> has long been expected to play Origin footy. Tom Trbojevic<\/a> has played plenty of wing at rep level.<\/p>\n

That said, Campbell Graham<\/a> has done his chances no harm at all in the opening month and a bit. Three tries and 150 run metres per game, in his four appearances this year make for positive reading.<\/p>\n

Pre-season I wouldn’t have had Graham’s name in the mix. Right now I absolutely do.<\/p>\n

Stocks Falling<\/p>\n

Addin Fonua-Blake
If you had asked me, pre-season, who was the biggest benefactor of the eligibility changes, it’s 110% Addin Fonua-Blake<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I legit felt NSW pushed to support the change to pair the Sharks monster with Payne Haas<\/a> to create the game’s premier starting prop duo.<\/p>\n

You’re going to have to look elsewhere for someone to say something negative about the Sharks best player in 2025, but he’s hardly demanding selection.<\/p>\n

He hasn’t been bad, just very quiet by his own massive standards. I don’t think you can argue against his stocks being way down.<\/p>\n

Briton Nikora
Briton Nikora<\/a> was probably the other one who entered the 2026 season expecting an Origin jumper, for QLD, at the first chance now that he’s eligible.<\/p>\n

Now, not only is he not the automatic selection once expected, but he’s lost his starting spot at the Sharks also.<\/p>\n

Nikora’s abilities probably mean he’ll snag a spot on the expanded bench come Origin One, but six weeks ago he was a near certainty in the back row.<\/p>\n

David Fifita’s injury opens the door, slightly, but another you’d have to go a long way to find an argument against his stocks having fallen.<\/p>\n

Liam Martin
An MCL injury looks to have all but ended Liam Martin’s hopes of running out come Origin One.<\/p>\n

Hudson Young<\/a> and Jacob Preston<\/a> are both demanding selection, and Martin’s spot would likely have been under pressure regardless.<\/p>\n

If the injury lay off is closer to worst case scenario (likely eight weeks) it could see him miss selection for Origin Two also. <\/p>\n

Right now it looks a long shot that the Penrith back rower will play any part in the interstate series, which could be over (results wise) before he gets a crack.<\/p>\n

Gehamat Shibasaki
2025’s surprise packet and shock selection for both Queensland and Australia<\/a> now looks to be a tough slog to retain his rep honours.<\/p>\n

He recently lost his spot in the Broncos backline and only returned via a mid-match injury.<\/p>\n

With Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow<\/a> and Robert Toia<\/a> the undoubted first and second choice options for the Origin centre spots, Shibasaki’s chances of playing this year don’t look great.<\/p>\n

He probably doesn’t have the versatility to jump the likes of Kalyn Ponga<\/a> for a bench spot, even with the extended bench.<\/p>\n

Trent Loiero
The Storm lock has his work cut out to retain his Origin jersey from last year.<\/p>\n

Pat Carrigan will likely return to the 13 jumper and I’d even argue the newly eligible Jason Taumalolo<\/a> is ahead of him in the pecking order right now.<\/p>\n

The Storm have started the 2026 season very poorly and Loiero has hardly stood out as one of those bucking the trend.<\/p>\n

He’s an Origin quality player but right now I don’t have him in the 19. Heading into the season, he was absolutely there.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Like it or not, but State of Origin is not too far away. With Origin 1 scheduled for…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":387552,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[111,139,69,213],"class_list":{"0":"post-387551","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-sports","8":"tag-new-zealand","9":"tag-newzealand","10":"tag-nz","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/387551","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=387551"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/387551\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/387552"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=387551"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=387551"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=387551"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}