{"id":387747,"date":"2026-04-19T21:01:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-19T21:01:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/387747\/"},"modified":"2026-04-19T21:01:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T21:01:11","slug":"inflation-preview-calm-before-the-iran-war-storm-price-rises-may-have-eased","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/387747\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation preview: Calm before the Iran war storm, price rises may have eased"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cOver 2026, we expect inflation to increase significantly and uncomfortably.\u201d<\/p>\n

ANZ senior economist Miles Workman is also picking a 2.9% annual figure.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s slightly higher than our previous forecast of 2.8% but slightly lower than the RBNZ\u2019s April MPR forecast of 3%,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven developments over the past couple of months, these data have a historical feel, with inflation set to accelerate sharply in [the second quarter].\u201d<\/p>\n

That was not to say the signal, from the core inflation measures in particular, didn\u2019t matter, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile it is too soon to expect core inflation to reflect any broadening in inflation pressures stemming from the oil shock, the RBNZ would be particularly concerned if these measures were to show signs that they were lifting ahead of that shock.\u201d<\/p>\n

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod is picking a fall to an annual rate of 2.8%, although he also warned that the rate would soar above 4% later this year.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis will be just a temporary reprieve,\u201d he said. \u201cOil prices spiked higher in late February. And despite their recent easing, they remain uncomfortably high.\u201d<\/p>\n

While the early impacts of those increases would be seen in the March quarter report, their full impact, including the spillover into other prices, wouldn\u2019t be evident for a few months.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs the impact of those costs and the related supply chain disruptions ripples through the economy, we expect inflation will rise significantly higher through the middle part of the year,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re picking a peak of 4.3%.\u201d<\/p>\n

KiwiBank and BNZ economists were less confident the topline number had eased.<\/p>\n

BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis picked a small dip to an annual rate of 3%.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe continue to believe headline inflation peaks at an annual 4.5% in [the second quarter],\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe forecast headline inflation to remain outside the Reserve Bank\u2019s target band until mid-2027 at the earliest.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kiwibank economist Alexandra Turcu picked a flat result with annual inflation unmoved at 3.1%.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe hoped that 2026 would finally be the year where growth caught up with prices,\u201d said Turcu.<\/p>\n

\u201cNow, we are less optimistic. We are currently weathering one of the biggest oil shocks in history, and a weak consumer is our biggest concern.\u201d<\/p>\n

Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.Stay ahead with the latest market moves, corporate updates, and economic insights by subscribing to our Business newsletter<\/a> \u2013 your essential weekly round-up of all the business news you need.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201cOver 2026, we expect inflation to increase significantly and uncomfortably.\u201d ANZ senior economist Miles Workman is also picking…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":387748,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[9218,64570,138,34596,23852,143305,219,1888,200810,305,13986,1943,16609,120,7810,111,139,69,13183,3333,13420,143627,10042,13744,673,223,210,6149,71895,379],"class_list":["post-387747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-before","tag-brief","tag-business","tag-calm","tag-consumers","tag-eased","tag-economy","tag-first","tag-flows","tag-have","tag-index","tag-inflation","tag-iran","tag-likely","tag-may","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-preview","tag-price","tag-quarter","tag-respite","tag-rises","tag-shock","tag-storm","tag-the","tag-through","tag-war","tag-wider","tag-year"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/387747","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=387747"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/387747\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/387748"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=387747"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=387747"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=387747"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}