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PATRICK T. FALLON \/ AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n
The OECD forecasts 1.5% economic growth for the U.S. in 2026. <\/p>\n
The OECD on Tuesday raised its growth forecast for the U.S. economy in 2025 on the back of AI investments, but noted that tariffs and lower net immigration are taking a toll and would lead to slowing growth next year.<\/p>\n
The OECD said it expects the U.S.’s annual real GDP growth rate to come in at 1.8% in 2025, up from from its previous projection of 1.6%.<\/p>\n
However, U.S. GDP is projected to grow by just 1.5% next year, the OECD said.<\/p>\n
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development on Tuesday raised its growth forecast for the U.S. economy in 2025 on the back of investing around the AI boom, but noted that tariffs<\/a> and lower net immigration<\/a> are taking a toll and would lead to slowing growth next year.<\/p>\n The OECD<\/a> said it expects the U.S.’s annual real gross domestic product<\/a> growth rate to come in at 1.8% in 2025, up from its 1.6% projection in June<\/a>. That is, however, well below the 2.8% GDP growth registered in 2024.\u00a0 U.S. GDP is projected to rise by just 1.5% next year.<\/p>\n “Strong AI-related investment boosted outcomes in the United States,” the Paris-based body said, but also noted that GDP growth is falling from 2024 as “strong investment growth in high technology sectors is more than offset by higher tariff rates and a drop in net immigration.”<\/p>\n The OECD said that the overall effective tariff rate in the U.S. rose to around 19.5% at the end of August, the month when President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs went into effect<\/a>. That is the highest rate since 1933, it said. The OECD also noted a softening in U.S. labor markets.<\/p>\n The OECD also raised its projections for economic expansion around the world, noting that “global growth was more resilient than anticipated in the first half of 2025, ” particularly in many emerging markets, which front-loaded their exports into the U.S. and supported their economies.<\/p>\n The OECD now expects global growth of 3.2% this year, up from the 2.9% expansion it had forecast in June, but below the 3.3% notched last year. It maintained its global growth forecast for next year of 2.9%.<\/p>\n