\u201cThe good news is that the ceasefire has been extended and the bad news is we still haven\u2019t got a deal. It seems Iran and the US are quite far apart with what they need to end the situation and reopen the Hormuz Strait.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut the markets are still looking on the bright side. There are risks out there, and a lot of disruption is happening to the global economy while the strait is closed,\u201d Lister said.<\/p>\n
\u201cNew Zealand hasn\u2019t recovered like the US, Europe and Japan markets in the last two weeks and is suffering from cautious sentiment about rising inflation and what the Reserve Bank will do.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe mainstream view is an Official Cash Rate hike sooner than we thought,\u201d said Lister.<\/p>\n
The Brent Crude oil price crept up to US$97.55 ($164.94) a barrel. Lister said the oil price is still holding under $100 and that seems a psychological tipping point.<\/p>\n
Local shares<\/p>\n
At home, Mercury Energy<\/a> gained 12c or 1.85% to $6.60 after upgrading its full-year operating earnings (ebitda) guidance to $1.05 billion, from $1b, because of higher forecast renewable generation from hydro and new projects.<\/p>\n Mercury reported a trading margin of $325m in the March quarter, up 27% on the previous corresponding period. Generation volume increased 286GWh to 1997GWh, and for the year to date it is up 824GWh to 6726GWh.<\/p>\n Elsewhere in the energy sector, Meridian was up 10c or 1.79% to $5.69; Contact gained 9c to $9.39; and Genesis added 2c to $2.29.<\/p>\n Ebos Group declined 75c or 3.37% to a seven-year low of $21.50 after downgrading its full-year operating earnings<\/a> (ebitda) guidance to $610m-$620m, from $615m-$635, because of the fuel crisis.<\/p>\n Ebos told the market the downgrade reflected additional transport and distribution costs of $5-$10m \u2013 absorbed by the group in maintaining service continuity \u2013 rather than a change in underlying demand or long-term earnings.<\/p>\n The company is talking with relevant stakeholders, including the Australian Government, about fuel cost recovery, Ebos said.<\/p>\n Lister said analysts had seen the Ebos downgrade coming and the market doesn\u2019t like to get a confirmation even if it was expected.<\/p>\n Market leader Fisher & Paykel Healthcare was down 57c to $37.35; Channel Infrastructure declined 5c to $2.91; and Spark decreased 4c or 1.9% to $2.07.<\/p>\n Fletcher Building shed 6c or 2.08% to $2.82; Blackpearl Group fell 8c or 8.25% to 89c; and Pacific Edge decreased 0.006c or 3.47% to 16.7c.<\/p>\n Transport and logistics stocks Freightways rose 50c or 4.13% to $12.60, and Mainfreight was up $1.10 or 1.86% to $60.30.<\/p>\n Infratil gained 13c to $12.46; Napier Port increased 12c or 3.46% to $3.59; Rua Gold gained 4c or 2.21% to $1.85; and Vista Group added 4c or 2.21% to $1.85.<\/p>\n Ryman Healthcare, up 3c to $2.12, has been upgraded from neutral to outperform by broker Forsyth Barr, saying its price-earnings ratio is near the lowest multiple in its history.<\/p>\n Forsyth Barr said Ryman was well positioned for a potential housing downturn, given its reduced gearing and limited development exposure \u2013 in fact, it could be a net beneficiary, with rising construction costs likely to exacerbate existing supply shortfalls.<\/p>\n KMD Brands, down 0.003c or 4.48% to 6.4c, completed its shortfall bookbuild<\/a> from its retail rights offer, with 126.4 million new shares taken up at 6c a share. A further 42.9 million shares were allocated to sub-underwriters.<\/p>\n KMD raised $65.3m, including the earlier placement and institutional rights offer, and will be used to reduce debt.<\/p>\n