Finance Minister Nicola Willis noted Peters has gone with Labour before. Photo \/ Mark Mitchell<\/p>\n
Luxon needs most National MPs behind him, because if enough crossed the floor to prove that the Government no longer had the confidence of the House it would collapse, leading to fresh elections if Luxon couldn\u2019t find enough opposition MPs to tide him over.<\/p>\n
Nothing in the coalition agreement \u2013 or any other agreement \u2013 prevents this from happening.<\/p>\n
So the question isn\u2019t \u201cis it possible?\u201d but \u201cis it likely to happen?\u201d Likelihood is a question of politics, and the political answer to that question is \u201cno\u201d.<\/p>\n
While it\u2019s advantageous for Peters to hammer National, particularly when times are tough and the party\u2019s voters seem quite happy to switch, he seems to have drawn the line at actually bringing down the coalition and heading to the polls.<\/p>\n
On Thursday, Peters was asked whether he would contemplate leaving the coalition early. Responding in the negative, Peters emphasised the importance of \u201cstability\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019ve said to you, there\u2019s one party that promises stability in this coalition and you\u2019re talking to it \u2013 we\u2019re the party that\u2019s in for stability all the way to the seventh of November,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s good reason to believe this. Polling shows voters feel negatively about the economy and the direction of the country overall. Peters, who has attacked his own Government\u2019s management of the economy, and his coalition partners more generally, seems to be harvesting this discontent from within his own Government.<\/p>\n
But voters have also tended to punish instability. Peters need look no further than his own history for evidence of this. NZ First nearly crashed out of Parliament in 1999 after Peters\u2019 fractious stint in Government with National.<\/p>\n
So what is happening?<\/p>\n
One of the reasons things feel so febrile this week is that NZ First and National have found each other\u2019s pressure points.<\/p>\n
Dame Jacinda Ardern and Winston Peters signing their coalition agreement in 2017. Photo \/ Mark Mitchell<\/p>\n
Peters amped up these tensions this week, attacking Luxon\u2019s political tactic of calling a confidence vote in his leadership of the National Party. Peters also claimed to know the margin of that vote, which, if true, would be a serious breach of caucus confidentiality, implying Luxon\u2019s leadership of National was very weak indeed.<\/p>\n
But National fought back \u2013 and fought back harder than it has done at any point this term.<\/p>\n
Deputy leader Nicola Willis demonstrated that she knows Peters\u2019 pain points just as well as Peters knows National\u2019s.<\/p>\n
She told the Mike Hosking Breakfast on Newstalk ZB there was always a \u201clive risk\u201d that NZ First would \u201cget into bed with Hipkins, Swarbrick, the Greens \u2026 which is a bad recipe for New Zealand\u201d.<\/p>\n
Luxon piled in on the radio station\u2019s The Country, reminding listeners that Peters was the leader who put Jacinda Ardern in power.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a fact that Peters has twice formed a Government with Labour and twice with National, but the conventional wisdom among Parliament, backed up by data from the likes of the NZ Election Study, is that NZ First\u2019s voters skew right, and that they want (and wanted) NZ First to support right-wing Governments.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not helpful for Peters to have voters reminded that he brought Ardern, who is still a controversial and often unpopular figure among his base, to power.<\/p>\n
It is, however, helpful to National. In the past, the major party of the coalition has tended to stay as far above the fray as possible. But with National\u2019s support plummeting so low that the party has itself become unstable, this seems no longer possible.<\/p>\n
Willis and Luxon\u2019s intervention shows National has decided that enough\u2019s enough, and if NZ First is going to come for National\u2019s vote, then National will do its best to defend it.<\/p>\n
Peters seems to have been concerned enough about the attack that he strengthened his 2022 ruling out of Labour so long as it was led by Hipkins.<\/p>\n