![\"Earth](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1777411992_467_earth-sciences-new-zealand-has-been-monitoring-signs-of-a-de-MB2WLX6GQJH7HFH35WFXAXKQSY.jpg\")
<\/p>\nMeteorologists say a “significant” El\u202fNi\u00f1o weather pattern could influence weather conditions in parts of the country this winter. <\/p>\n
Earth Science New Zealand says climate models are showing a “clear consensus” for an El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o event to arrive this winter, bringing more rain to parts of the South Island while leaving northern and eastern parts drier than usual. <\/p>\n
“La Ni\u00f1a has only just ended, but there are indications that we\u2019ll see a rapid flip to El Ni\u00f1o,” said Earth Sciences New Zealand and MetService meteorologist Jon Tunster. <\/p>\n
“Given the projected strength of this event, it will be very surprising if New\u202fZealand doesn\u2019t feel some impacts.” <\/p>\n
El\u202fNi\u00f1o and La\u202fNi\u00f1a are two phases of the El\u202fNi\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation, a natural climate cycle driven by ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the tropical Pacific.<\/p>\n
During El\u202fNi\u00f1o, sea surface temperatures become warmer than normal in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, changing wind patterns shifting where rain clouds and storms tend to form. <\/p>\n
There is a greater than 60% probability that the event will be classified as “strong” by spring, with the potential to intensify further later in the year. <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Earth Sciences New Zealand has been monitoring signs of a developing El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o in the tropical Pacific Ocean for the past six months (Source: Supplied)<\/p>\n
What does this mean for New Zealand?<\/p>\n
Tunster said the atmospheric changes caused by El Ni\u00f1o could strengthen the tendency for high-pressure systems to anchor themselves over Australia during winter, resulting in a south-westerly flow over New Zealand.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis could bring increased rainfall to Southland, parts of Otago, and western facing areas, primarily of the South Island, but reduced rainfall for much of the remainder of the country,” he said. <\/p>\n
\u201cDryness could become an issue as spring approaches, for areas that see a reduction in their normal winter rainfall such as the east of both islands, or the upper North Island.”<\/p>\n
While south westerly flows are often linked to colder weather, Tunster said a nationwide colder-than-average winter was unlikely at this stage. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe could see occasional cold snaps, lasting a few days at a time \u2013 except in inland parts of the South Island where the cold air can linger for longer periods. Or a colder-than-average month within an otherwise near-average season.” <\/p>\n
Chief Scientist of Weather and Climate Forecasting at Earth Sciences New Zealand, Chris Brandolino speaks to Breakfast about the weather pattern. (Source: Breakfast)<\/p>\n
Tunster said there were “multiple indicators” pointing to the development of an El\u202fNi\u00f1o event this winter, with conditions beneath the ocean surface aligning with past El\u202fNi\u00f1o events.<\/p>\n
\u201cOne of the most striking observations is a steady eastern movement of extremely warm water beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean,” Tunster said. <\/p>\n
“This has been a precursor of significant El\u202fNi\u00f1o events in the past when these warm waters are eventually brought to the surface,\u201d <\/p>\n
The developing El Ni\u00f1o could also affect major international weather systems, including the Indian monsoon and the North Pacific storm track.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Meteorologists say a “significant” El\u202fNi\u00f1o weather pattern could influence weather conditions in parts of the country this winter.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":402093,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[42,43,40,38,41,39,3393],"class_list":["post-402139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-headlines","tag-news","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories","tag-weather-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402139","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=402139"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402139\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/402093"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=402139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=402139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=402139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}