{"id":403959,"date":"2026-04-29T22:49:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T22:49:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/403959\/"},"modified":"2026-04-29T22:49:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T22:49:14","slug":"election-2026-plotting-a-path-to-victory-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/403959\/","title":{"rendered":"Election 2026: Plotting a path to victory"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Guyon Espiner and Thomas Coughlan on coalition partnerships, economic headwinds and burying a leadership crisis<\/p>\n<p>When the election date was announced in January, the economy was set to improve, giving the edge to the incumbent coalition government.<\/p>\n<p>How things have changed.<\/p>\n<p>The Detail talked to Herald political editor Thomas Coughlan then, and catches up with him again today.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We were sort of saying, when the election date was set [for November 7] that it seemed smart to set a late election date because the economy was looking like it was going to recover. That would probably mean a more benign environment to fight an election if you&#8217;re the incumbent government who is in charge of the economy, and given that most polls at the beginning of the year gave the incumbent government just a slight edge over the opposition &#8230; a slight edge plus an improving economy probably translated into a victory for the coalition,&#8221; he says.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Who really knows who&#8217;s going to win an election? But that&#8217;s your sort of baseline scenario. If you&#8217;d argued that point people would say yeah, that makes a lot of sense.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>That was before the Iran war, declining-to-stagnant house prices continued into a fourth year, higher interest rates this year &#8211; economy indicators that are likely to drag the coalition backwards.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Now it looks like a toss-up,&#8221; Coughlan says. &#8220;It&#8217;s probably going to be one of the closest elections we&#8217;ve had under the MMP system.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Labour staying out of sight<\/p>\n<p>Labour&#8217;s strategy to date has been to make itself a small target, avoiding policy announcements that can be picked apart by the government.<\/p>\n<p>Coughlan says that&#8217;s probably a politically astute tactic right now given the unpopularity of National and the Prime Minister.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Labour&#8217;s pitch doesn&#8217;t seem to be, &#8216;vote for Labour because Labour&#8217;s great&#8217;.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;They&#8217;re sort of running an implicitly negative anti-coalition campaign &#8230; which is probably a justifiable thing to do when the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rnz.co.nz\/news\/political\/592799\/national-luxon-fall-in-latest-poll-coalition-trails-left-bloc\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Prime Minister is as unpopular as he is now.<\/a>&#8220;<\/p>\n<p>Coughlan says we&#8217;ve seen this in Australia and increasingly in New Zealand.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Because when you run on a lot of policies you get stuck in the weeds, you have to get people explaining the policies. Obviously you&#8217;re just an opposition party with 30-odd MPs and a small research unit &#8211; you haven&#8217;t thought of everything, and all of a sudden someone doorstops you and says, &#8216;have you thought about this in relation to your policy &#8230; if you do this then the sky will fall in, in this particular industry&#8217;.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;And some MP sort of says &#8216;actually you know what, I haven&#8217;t thought about that, maybe our policy isn&#8217;t a very good idea after all&#8217;.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Labour has locked down its Capital Gains Tax plan, proposed a Future Fund, talked about returning the Reserve Bank to a dual mandate and increasing film production and video gaming rebates.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s not very transformational stuff .. it&#8217;s little wee policy tweaks, but nothing that major.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;That does suggest that at the moment Labour is thinking, the strongest policy we have to take to voters is to get rid of the government,&#8221; says Coughlan.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4K95NQ2_Media_14_jfif\" width=\"1050\" height=\"787\" alt=\"Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori co-leaders Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer.\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"photo-captioned__information\">\nTe P\u0101ti M\u0101ori co-leaders Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer.<br \/>\nPhoto: RNZ \/ Russell Palmer\n<\/p>\n<p>Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori&#8217;s role<\/p>\n<p>RNZ&#8217;s Midday Report presenter Guyon Espiner concurs.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I suppose Labour&#8217;s operating on that &#8216;don&#8217;t interrupt your enemy when they&#8217;re arguing with themselves&#8217; sort of philosophy, and they&#8217;re trying to make this small-target philosophy where they&#8217;re not giving their opponents something to aim at,&#8221; he tells The Detail.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Usually you&#8217;ll see an opposition really waiting till a few months out. I don&#8217;t think that&#8217;s a good idea.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I think you should put your policies up for scrutiny and debate a lot earlier.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>But Espiner points out that for Labour, it won&#8217;t just be about policy, but about laying out a path for victory &#8211; and the behaviour of potential coalition partner Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori could be a danger to that.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Rightly or wrongly, Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori and the Greens to some extent do worry some New Zealanders in terms of their policies, and some of those mythical centrist New Zealand voters &#8211; will they frighten them off?<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;So I think Labour needs to work that out.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>On today&#8217;s podcast Espiner and Coughlan also discuss New Zealand First and Winston Peters, including how reliable he is when saying he definitely won&#8217;t be going with Labour this year, and the spanner in his king-making works that might come in the shape of an electoral accommodation in the Mt Albert electorate.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Coughlan says National&#8217;s leadership issue isn&#8217;t going away as long as Luxon&#8217;s popularity continues to sink &#8230;. in spite of the Prime Minister&#8217;s insistence that it&#8217;s all over, and blaming the media for the whole soap opera.<\/p>\n<p>Check out how to listen to and follow The Detail <a href=\"https:\/\/linktr.ee\/thedetailnz\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>You can also stay up-to-date by liking us on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/TheDetailRNZ\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Facebook<\/a> or following us on <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/thedetailnz\" rel=\"nofollow\">Twitter<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Guyon Espiner and Thomas Coughlan on coalition partnerships, economic headwinds and burying a leadership crisis When the election&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":403673,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[48,47,42,43,49,46,44,45,40,38,41,39],"class_list":["post-403959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-audio","tag-current-affairs","tag-headlines","tag-news","tag-podcasts","tag-public-radio","tag-radio-new-zealand","tag-rnz","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/403959","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=403959"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/403959\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/403673"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=403959"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=403959"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=403959"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}