{"id":405434,"date":"2026-04-30T18:51:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T18:51:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/405434\/"},"modified":"2026-04-30T18:51:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T18:51:09","slug":"home-value-index-expert-says-nz-house-prices-may-flatten-or-fall-this-winter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/405434\/","title":{"rendered":"Home Value Index: Expert says NZ house prices may flatten or fall this winter"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">\u201c[And] we\u2019ve been here before, with small upturns at the start of 2024 and 2025 eventually going into reverse. With Iran-related uncertainty currently very high, it\u2019d hardly be a surprise to see that pattern repeat in the next three to six months.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"Interest rates are expected to continue rising this year, which could peg house price growth.  Photo \/ DepositPhotos\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>Interest rates are expected to continue rising this year, which could peg house price growth.  Photo \/ DepositPhotos<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">The Reserve Bank was watching closely for price effects from the Iran conflict, such as higher wage demands or raised inflation expectations, and there was a growing view they may begin raising the Official Cash Rate from July, Davidson said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">Either way, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/personal-finance\/interest-rates\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/personal-finance\/interest-rates\/\">mortgage interest rates<\/a> slowly rising and recent, modest house price increases flattening \u2013 or even reversing \u2013 wouldn\u2019t be a surprise, he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThe housing market has lifted a little to start the year, but winter could easily see a sideways or downwards trajectory for prices.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">Property values remained \u201csluggish\u201d in Auckland and Wellington, with 0.1% falls, while Dunedin was the best performer of the main centres, with an increase of 0.8% last month, the Home Value Index figures showed.<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"Property values rose 0.4% in Christchurch last month, and up are 3% in the last year, Photo \/ Nate McKinnon, RNZ\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>Property values rose 0.4% in Christchurch last month, and up are 3% in the last year, Photo \/ Nate McKinnon, RNZ<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">Christchurch and Tauranga rose 0.4% and Hamilton 0.3%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">Auckland\u2019s flat result reflected variability across different parts of the city, with Papakura and North Shore up by 0.1%, Rodney and Manukau flat and Franklin, Auckland City and Wait\u0101kere down by 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, Davidson said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">Overall, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/topic\/auckland\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/topic\/auckland\/\">Auckland property values<\/a> are down 3% in the last year and 22.9% from peak, with a median value last month of just over $1.04 million.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThe improvement in Auckland\u2019s housing affordability may set the scene for a pick-up in value growth in the medium-term \u2026 for now, it remains a purchaser\u2019s market.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">Wellington had also shown \u201csome hints of growth\u201d this year, but values remained 1.1% down on a year ago, and 25% down from the peak, Davidson said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">The median value of property in the capital was $780,504.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cWellington is still among the weakest areas of the country in terms of property value falls in the past four to five years, which is benefiting purchasers \u2026 first-home buyers are running at market shares greater than 35%.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"Uncertainty ahead of this year's general election could also have a dampening effect on house prices in some places, Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson says. Photo \/ Sylvie Whinray\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>Uncertainty ahead of this year&#8217;s general election could also have a dampening effect on house prices in some places, Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson says. Photo \/ Sylvie Whinray<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">The window of opportunity may not remain open forever, but with economic and election uncertainty looking likely to linger, Wellington\u2019s property values may not move much this year, he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">In Christchurch \u2013 where property prices didn\u2019t rise as sharply in the early 2020s \u2013 property values were up 3% in the last year, and down only 1.6% on the peak to sit at just over $706,000 last month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">Tauranga also saw a modest rise in the last year, with values up 2% to top $932,000 last month, but in nearby Hamilton values fell 1.5% over the year and median values are now just over $740,000.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">In Dunedin, property values are up 3.1% in a year, with a median value of $633,632.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">In the regions, Hastings took the biggest hit last month, with property values down 1%, while New Plymouth logged a tiny 0.1% fall, Davidson said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">Napier, Palmerston North, Gisborne, Nelson, Rotorua, Whanganui, Queenstown and Invercargill were all up between 0.2% and 0.6%, and Whanganui 0.9%.<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"Queenstown is beautiful, but not cheap -median house values in the tourist favourite are more than $1.5m. Photo \/ Getty Images&#10;\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>Queenstown is beautiful, but not cheap -median house values in the tourist favourite are more than $1.5m. Photo \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">Median values in regional centres ranged from $507,000 in Whanganui to $737,000 in Nelson, barring tourist mecca Queenstown, where the median value topped $1.5m last month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">Most regional centres had seen values rise from a year ago, although Hastings and New Plymouth were proving \u201ca little more sluggish\u201d, he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cIt seems fairly clear that good growth lately in export industries, including agriculture and tourism, has been a factor behind higher levels of economic confidence and property market resilience in many regional areas.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">But higher fuel and fertiliser prices were also squeezing profit margins, and could take the shine off regional economies over the next few months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wrLLDwyWye\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cGiven that, a re-emergence of some patchier property value figures could also be seen.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Stay ahead with the latest market moves, corporate updates, and economic insights by subscribing to our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/my-account\/profile\/newsletters\/?from=cmp\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/my-account\/profile\/newsletters\/?from=cmp\">Business newsletter<\/a> \u2013 your essential weekly round-up of all the business news you need.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201c[And] we\u2019ve been here before, with small upturns at the start of 2024 and 2025 eventually going into&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":405435,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[138,124,38638,1601,3592,38403,42085,1345,10053,5345,13986,7810,111,139,69,691,12937,814,312,185971,1961,44263,208806,32561,9342,23644],"class_list":["post-405434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-business","tag-could","tag-easily","tag-expert","tag-fall","tag-falling","tag-flatten","tag-home","tag-house","tag-increase","tag-index","tag-may","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-or","tag-prices","tag-property","tag-says","tag-sideways","tag-this","tag-tiny","tag-toppled","tag-value","tag-values","tag-winter"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=405434"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405434\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/405435"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=405434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=405434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=405434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}