(Bloomberg) — Global food prices climbed to their highest level in more than three years as the Iran war disrupted supply chains, raising the prospect of larger bills for shoppers.<\/p>\n
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The United Nations\u2019 index of food-commodity prices gained 1.6% in April from the previous month, led higher by vegetable oils, meat and cereals, according to a Friday report from the Food and Agriculture Organization. That\u2019s 2.5% higher than a year ago.<\/p>\n
The Iran war, now in its 10th week, has effectively shut the critical Strait of Hormuz, pinching flows of essential farm inputs such as diesel and fertilizer and boosting prices. That threatens to curb farmers\u2019 production, eventually filtering down to food costs.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe agri-food industry is resilient for now because they are selling what they already produced,\u201d FAO Chief Economist M\u00e1ximo Torero said in an interview. \u201cBut this will change very quickly as commodity and energy costs are transmitted and then we will feel it as consumers.\u201d<\/p>\n
Elevated oil prices have also boosted demand for biofuels, with the UN\u2019s vegetable oils index climbing 5.9% from March to hit its highest since July 2022.<\/p>\n
The index monitors raw commodity costs rather than retail prices, meaning there will still be a lag before the farmgate increase reaches consumers. Still, the gains from the March level are the first sign that food inflation is likely to pick up, even as Iran weighs a US-proposed deal to end the war that began at the end of February.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf this goes to day 90, the possibility of a food crisis will be significantly higher in late 2026 and in 2027,\u201d Torero said.<\/p>\n
The increase in the gauge \u2014 which tracks grains, sugar, meat, dairy and vegetable oil costs \u2014 marks the third consecutive month of gains.<\/p>\n
The meat index climbed 1.2% to a record high, while the cereal price index rose by 0.8% on weather concerns and expectations of reduced wheat plantings in 2026, as farmers consider sowing less fertilizer\u2011intensive crops.<\/p>\n
Sign up for the Business of Food newsletter for news on how the world feeds itself in a changing economy and climate.<\/p>\n
(Updates with quotes from FAO Chief Economist.)<\/p>\n
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