An aerial image of Rolleston from the early 1990’s. Photo \/ LINZ<\/p>\n
The most recent population data from 2025 is almost 12 months old and puts the town at more than 34,000 residents. Given the continued growth and most recent growth rates, Rolleston could have an estimated population of around 36,000 by now. <\/p>\n
It is well ahead of Paraparaumu, Timaru, Blenheim, Taupo, Pukekohe and Queenstown. It also has Gisborne in its sights as it zeroes in on the top 20 most populous places in New Zealand. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe downside is it makes it particularly difficult to deliver infrastructure. When we\u2019re talking about drinking water, wastewater, and we\u2019re not just taking that in one direction in a township, you are taking it 4-5-6 different directions. That costs money,\u201d says current Selwyn District Mayor Lydia Gliddon.<\/p>\n
Rolleston had seen incredible growth by the 2020s.<\/p>\n
The number of people calling Rolleston home more than doubled in the past decade. In 2016 it was 14,700, which was almost three times as many people as the previous decade (5220 in 2006). By 2036, it could be between 50,000 and 60,000 and potentially be reclassified as a city. <\/p>\n
\u201cYeah, we\u2019re going to get there. We need to start planning for that,\u201d says Gliddon. <\/p>\n
Planning for a number even bigger than that actually started well before Gliddon was even born.<\/p>\n
Rolleston – The Town of the Future<\/p>\n
History <\/p>\n
Rolleston was established 160 years ago as a railway terminus and named after Canterbury figurehead William Rolleston. <\/p>\n
It was the junction where the Midland rail line to the West Coast branched away from the Main Line south. In the 1860s, the land was used to farm sheep before it was sold off and subdivided \u2013 but its first real steps towards the thriving population that it boasts today came more than a century after it was founded. <\/p>\n
In fact, Rolleston was reimagined with a population twice the size of what it is now. <\/p>\n
Former Prime Minister Norman Kirk dubbed it the \u201ctown of the future\u201d in the early 1970s when he secretly planned to develop the area to ease Christchurch\u2019s urban sprawl.<\/p>\n
Former Prime Minister Norman Kirk. Photo \/ Archive<\/p>\n
As documented by Selwyn Libraries, \u201cBig Norm\u201d had grown up in the Christchurch suburb of Linwood, which he remembered as \u201ca grim, joyless \u2018filing cabinet\u2019 dormitory suburb from where workers travelled to the city\u201d. Kirk\u2019s vision for Rolleston was as \u201ca thriving community, where families and industry could prosper\u201d. <\/p>\n
When Kirk\u2019s Labour government came to power in 1972, he and his deputy \u2013 Minister of Works Hugh Watt, began planning for the new town of Rolleston. The secret was unveiled on November 29, 1973, as a \u201cbombshell letter\u201d to 170 shocked Rolleston landowners informed them of the Government\u2019s intent to buy their land under the Public Works Act. <\/p>\n
\u201cA total of 4000 hectares would be taken for the proposed city of 80,000 people. Farming within the new boundaries would end, leaving only existing houses,\u201d reads a passage from Selwyn Libraries\u2019 historical account.<\/p>\n
In the 1970s, Rolleston was being planned as the “Town of the Future”. Photo \/ LINZ<\/p>\n
\u201cThere had been no advice, consultation or warning; even local government and the Christchurch Regional Planning Authority were taken by surprise.\u201d<\/p>\n
A total of 110 objections were lodged, but Kirk\u2019s government \u201cpressed on\u201d. <\/p>\n
However, less than two years after taking office, Kirk died on August 31, 1974. The following year Robert Muldoon\u2019s National government swept to power, and the plan for Rolleston was abandoned. <\/p>\n
\u201cBy this time 70 properties, over 1265 hectares, had been bought. This land was then leased, often to people who did not live in the area,\u201d reads the Selwyn Libraries account. <\/p>\n
It seemed the \u201ctown of the future\u201d would be consigned to history. It wasn\u2019t forgotten, though \u2013 the unfulfilled moniker became something of a source of mockery. <\/p>\n
But it has \u201ccertainly made it now\u201d, says Coe.<\/p>\n
The earthquake and the commute <\/p>\n
Rolleston emerged largely unscathed after the 2011 Christchurch earthquake and became a viable solution for displaced homeowners who were cashed up and ready to move on. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe earthquake changed everything there,\u201d says Coe. <\/p>\n
The influx broke the development dam. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe figured that after the earthquake we would get probably, maybe 1000 houses a year built in Rolleston for a few years, but I was always thinking that after maybe five years that would taper off. But it hasn\u2019t. It\u2019s just kept going and growing and growing,\u201d said Coe. <\/p>\n
Rolleston\u2019s population has grown by almost 30,000 since the 2011 earthquake and the opening of the Southern Motorway in late 2012 made commuting more palatable.<\/p>\n
Selwyn District Mayor Lydia Gliddon and her deputy, Brendan “Big Red” Shefford. Photo \/ Supplied<\/p>\n
Gliddon believes there could also be a future for commuter rail. <\/p>\n
\u201cI took the Crusader Express support train from Rolleston to the city. I think there\u2019s a real partnership there to spend some time with Mainland Rail and look at what does light rail look like into the city, because, you know, you could start to build a business case from that. Twenty minutes, it\u2019s pretty quick,\u201d says Gliddon.<\/p>\n
Business <\/p>\n
It\u2019s not only Kirk\u2019s residential vision that is being realised \u2013 industry and business are booming too. <\/p>\n
Business growth has led to a large-scale redevelopment of the town centre and the 188ha Izone Industrial Park on the north side of SH1. It\u2019s home to more than 120 companies from manufacturing to warehousing and logistics.<\/p>\n
Rolleston’s main street has been fully redeveloped, like the rist of the town centre. Photo \/ Alyse Wright <\/p>\n
\u201cI can remember when McDonald\u2019s came to Rolleston and we thought, \u2018Hey, hello, Rolleston\u2019s come of age, we\u2019ve got a McDonald\u2019s\u2019,\u201d said Coe. <\/p>\n
Virtually every major food franchise is now close by and there are three large supermarkets, with a fourth being built. The latest to open its doors is Pak\u2019nSave. Sarah and Phil Blackburn are vastly experienced supermarket proprietors and leaped at the chance to open in New Zealand\u2019s fastest-growing area. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt was certainly a no-brainer for us to apply for a Pak\u2019nSave in Rolleston,\u201d says Sarah Blackburn. <\/p>\n
It\u2019s not just a Pak\u2019nSave, at 8100sq m it is the largest in the South Island. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re the biggest floor space because why wouldn\u2019t you, with the projected growth and the fact that it was reasonably easy to build a supermarket that big? Why wouldn\u2019t you just go for it?\u201d asks Blackburn. <\/p>\n
A Mitre 10 is also understood to be in the works on a vacant neighbouring site. <\/p>\n
A second Woolworths is already under construction in Arbor Green \u2013 yet another Rolleston subdivision that includes the latest primary school \u2013 Te Rau Horopito.<\/p>\n
Rolleston College has a roll of 2000 students. Photo \/ File<\/p>\n
Schools <\/p>\n
Ten primary schools feed into one high school across two campuses with a current roll of 2000 students. The original junior campus caters from Year 9 to Year 11 and the new senior campus is for Year 12 and 13. <\/p>\n
Rolleston College is co-educational and was founded in January 2017 when Rolleston\u2019s population was half of what it is today. The school began with only Year 9 students, with that cohort becoming each year group\u2019s inaugural class until there was a full school of Year 9-13 in 2021. Even before then, the school was making plans to expand. The growth had been anticipated, but it arrived much quicker than expected. <\/p>\n
\u201cPlanning for the senior campus started a very long time ago. Around six years ago [we] first started thinking and started planning and there was obviously the extension to the [original] campus here as well,\u201d says principal Rachel Skelton. <\/p>\n
Being the sole secondary school in Rolleston, up to 80% of the town\u2019s primary school students enrol in the college while others venture further afield \u2013 most often to single sex schools in Christchurch. <\/p>\n
\u201cAt the moment we\u2019ve got 471 Year 9 students. That will probably be into the 500s as things sort of progress, that\u2019s what is predicted,\u201d says Skelton.<\/p>\n
Rachel Skelton says there won’t be a third campus. The next step will need to be a second high school. Photo \/ Rolleston College<\/p>\n
Between the two campuses (junior \u2013 1800, senior \u2013 800) the school\u2019s capacity sits at around 2600 students. Skelton says there won\u2019t be a third campus. <\/p>\n
\u201cI really think following the second campus that there needs to be another high school built. I think the ministry will need to look at where they predict the next big piece of growth. Is it between us and Lincoln? Is it between Rolleston and Templeton? Or is it more out towards West Melton – Darfield?\u201d <\/p>\n
Future growth and fast-track <\/p>\n
The idea of continued growth goes almost without question. It will happen. How it happens is up for varying degrees of discussion.<\/p>\n
The flat agricultural land of Rolleston is nowhere near capacity \u2013 though just how far it can spread towards neighbouring towns is being watched closely. To the southeast of Rolleston lies Lincoln \u2013 another rapidly expanding town in the Selwyn District. <\/p>\n
\u201cLook, we want to try and keep that separate. We recognise that those townships have their own identity, and we recognise it\u2019s really important for the people that live in that space as well. So, in the middle part of this year, what we\u2019re going to do is come out with some area plans. <\/p>\n
\u201cSo, it\u2019s almost a bit of spatial planning to talk with our community and say, \u2018Hey, where do you want to see growth? How does that look? And is there any intensification that you see appropriate in your townships?\u2019\u201d says Gliddon.<\/p>\n
New builds going up in Rolleston’s Ackland Park development. Photo \/ Alyse Wright <\/p>\n
Gliddon says the intensification of Rolleston will be exacerbated by fast-track legislation, potentially speeding up the approval process. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt becomes difficult, and the fact that we have limited say in that. We get to give feedback to a panel. But, you know, whether that\u2019s taken on board or not is at the discretion of that panel. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s even more particularly difficult for our community because they don\u2019t get to have a say in where growth happens in our district. I think that\u2019s probably the most contentious point of a fast-track. It\u2019s at the speed that a fast track happens, so that we then have an obligation to match the infrastructure to that. <\/p>\n
\u201cAnd then add rates capping on top of that.\u201d<\/p>\n
Rolleston’s redeveloped main street. Photo \/ Alyse Wright <\/p>\n
Still, Gliddon is aware that the alternative offers bigger headaches. <\/p>\n
\u201cDon\u2019t get me wrong, I would rather be in a growth space than a decline. It allows affordable housing for people, because there\u2019s so much demand. And it allows growth for business. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s GDP, it\u2019s our economy, and it can be quite circular as well. We know that agriculture is our main GDP earner, but actually, what businesses can we have that support that as well, for exports? So, it\u2019s a nice place to be in, in that respect,\u201d says Gliddon. <\/p>\n
More than 450 new homes could be built on another huge block of land on the southwest corner of Rolleston from late 2027. <\/p>\n
The 28ha owned by the Carter Group is next to the successful Arbor Green. It is the latest example of how quickly the area can convert from agriculture to residential.<\/p>\n
West Rolleston subdivision at the intersection of Dunns Crossing and Selwyn Roads. Photo \/ Bayleys Real Estate<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a speed that Gliddon and her council continue to grapple with. <\/p>\n
\u201cWhat does this place look like for us in, in 20-30 years, and how can we sort of get ahead of that?\u201d she asks. <\/p>\n
\u201cI think we\u2019ve been guilty of not planning well enough for what this looks like in the future, and you can kind of only do things once, but we also want to maintain that feel of Selwyn. <\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t think, and this is just my personal view, we want to become a city vibe, but we\u2019ve got a plan for that amount of people.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mike Thorpe is a senior journalist for the Herald, based in Christchurch. He has been a broadcast journalist across television and radio for 20 years and joined the Herald in August 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"An aerial image of Rolleston from the early 1990’s. Photo \/ LINZ The most recent population data from…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":420359,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[138,1288,2199,124,1887,7557,3372,13689,50496,88316,71,3273,3499,305,1456,111,139,12908,69,1118,6029,766,59964,11786,38884,18746,223,6759,61,2951],"class_list":["post-420358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-business","tag-capital","tag-city","tag-could","tag-countrys","tag-district","tag-dubbed","tag-expansion","tag-fastestgrowing","tag-foreseen","tag-from","tag-future","tag-growth","tag-have","tag-mike","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nobody","tag-nz","tag-of","tag-once","tag-reports","tag-rolleston","tag-runaway","tag-selwyn","tag-size","tag-the","tag-thorpe","tag-to","tag-town"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/420358","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=420358"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/420358\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/420359"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=420358"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=420358"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=420358"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}