{"id":423763,"date":"2026-05-12T10:59:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T10:59:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/423763\/"},"modified":"2026-05-12T10:59:09","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T10:59:09","slug":"inflation-expected-to-hit-a-3-year-high-as-iran-war-fuel-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/423763\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation expected to hit a 3-year high, as Iran war fuel prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Consumer Price Index is widely expected to show inflation has risen to a nearly three-year high when April\u2019s data is released Tuesday morning. <\/p>\n

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The Iran war\u2019s wide-ranging economic fallout has caused prices to spike, and economists and analysts project that inflation will hit 3.8%, up 0.6% from March to April, according to a survey from Dow Jones. <\/p>\n

April\u2019s inflation reading follows an even sharper 0.9% jump from February to March. Last month\u2019s increase was the largest month-to-month jump since 2022.<\/p>\n

As inflation continues to accelerate, it\u2019s eating into Americans\u2019 wages at a rapid clip<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The pace of wage gains has been slowing over the past two years. In November, wages continued to rise at a pace of almost 4%. By March, that had fallen to 3.4%.<\/p>\n

If the data lines up with economists\u2019 projections, inflation in April will have surpassed wage growth for the first time since 2023.<\/p>\n

If wages can\u2019t keep up with inflation, the affordability crisis that has been gripping consumers could become an even larger issue than it was before the war. <\/p>\n

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to jump 0.3%, economists predict.<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs said it expects \u201cstrong travel services inflation this month, partly reflecting passthrough of the increase in oil prices\u201d since the U.S. and Israel went to war with Iran.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe forecast a 3% increase in airfares,\u201d Goldman economists Jessica Rindels and Ronnie Walker said Monday. They also expect President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs to continue to play a role in overall prices and to \u201cmodestly boost monthly inflation over the next few months.\u201d<\/p>\n

Several analysts said they believe soaring gas prices in recent months haven\u2019t fully hit consumers yet.<\/p>\n

\u201cEnergy costs likely would not start to feed through to core goods prices for at least a few more months,\u201d Citigroup economist Veronica Clark wrote in a client note.<\/p>\n

The measure of core inflation is how Federal Reserve policymakers primarily interpret inflation data, because fuel and food prices can rise and fall so quickly.<\/p>\n

Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, more than had been expected. <\/p>\n

The week before, the BLS also reported that the Fed\u2019s favorite core inflation gauge \u2014 called PCE \u2014 rose only 0.3% in March. That having been said, the rise brought it to its highest level since late 2023.<\/p>\n

As of early Tuesday, oil continued to move higher, rising more than 3% to over $101 per barrel for U.S. crude oil. Earlier in the war, U.S. crude oil prices briefly surpassed $120 per barrel. Stocks, meanwhile, have kept climbing to record highs.<\/p>\n

The Iran war weighs heavily on the path ahead for inflation and the economy overall.<\/p>\n

As of Tuesday, the average price for a gallon of gas was still $4.50, only 6 cents off the high this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Consumer Price Index is widely expected to show inflation has risen to a nearly three-year high when…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":423764,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-423763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/423763","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=423763"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/423763\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/423764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=423763"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=423763"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=423763"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}