TOP has a new policy platform, a new leader and a newly curious supporter base. After a decade on the margins, is this finally the party\u2019s year, asks Catherine McGregor in today\u2019s excerpt from The Bulletin.<\/p>\n
To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday,\u00a0sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n The TOP moment<\/p>\n The Opportunity Party is polling 3.3% in the latest 1News Verian poll \u2013 its best result at this stage in any previous cycle \u2013 and attracting a level of commentary that would have seemed implausible a year ago. Much of the recent attention has been prompted by\u00a0media chatter<\/a>\u00a0that Labour might step aside in Mt Albert for leader Qiulae Wong (think National\u2019s Epsom arrangement with Act) to get TOP into parliament and set Labour up with a less tricky coalition partner than Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori. Wong denies any conversation with Labour, adding that, as a centrist party, they wouldn\u2019t be interested in making a pre-election deal with the left.<\/p>\n Would such an arrangement make sense anyway? Labour held Mt Albert by just 18 votes in 2023, but\u00a0Newsroom\u2019s Jonathan Milne<\/a>\u00a0says that was an outlier result. This year, \u201cFrankly, I don\u2019t think Labour could lose Helen Clark and Jacinda Ardern\u2019s old Mt Albert electorate if it tried.\u201d<\/p>\n A sign of the party\u2019s renewed energy is the donations it has received from opposite political camps,\u00a0Newsroom\u2019s Hanna McCallum reports<\/a>. Longtime Labour and Greens funder Phillip Mills and tech entrepreneur and right-bloc backer Brian Cartmell have both donated $100k, with Mills telling Newsroom that, for the first time, he believes \u201cthere is a genuine shot that they will get in\u201d.<\/p>\n What they\u2019re offering<\/p>\n Last week the party released\u00a0its first tranche of policy<\/a>\u00a0under a \u2018tax reset\u2019 banner.\u00a0As the Post\u2019s Nick James reports<\/a>, it includes a \u201ccitizen income\u201d (a UBI, in other words) of $19,400 tax-free per year for every adult citizen or permanent resident, which would involve scrapping jobseeker and student allowances; a land value tax of 1.75% in urban areas and 0.5% in rural, projected to raise $24 billion annually; and a \u201cKiwiSaver 2.0\u201d requiring 12% compulsory contributions (6% each from employer and employee), phased in over eight years. Tax brackets would also be simplified: 28% for annual income up to $50,000; 34% for income between $50,001 and $200,000; and 39% for income over $200,000.<\/p>\n Wong says the net effect \u201cwill be, we think, the biggest tax cut to working New Zealanders ever or at least in a few decades.\u201d Under full implementation, she says, 70% would pay less tax, 20% would see little change, and 10% would pay more.<\/p>\n Can they really appeal to both sides?<\/p>\n The party\u2019s rising profile has attracted both admiration and cynicism.\u00a0Writing in Stuff, Verity Johnson<\/a>\u00a0says an increasing number of her \u201csmart, elder-millennial\u201d friends are name-dropping Opportunity. \u201cNow, I wouldn\u2019t have said it was everyone talking TOP. But it was a certain type of someone. Smart. Restless. Urban. Thoroughly pissed off with the status quo.\u201d<\/p>\n Her thesis in support of TOP is that a sizeable voting bloc have soured on the coalition but are not ready to forgive Labour, finding themselves politically homeless. Which is where Opportunity is finding its, er, chance.<\/p>\n Newsroom\u2019s Milne is less enchanted<\/a>. His central critique is that the party\u2019s \u201cblue-green\u201d branding has a historically centre-right pedigree but TOP\u2019s actual policies are, in his words, \u201cunequivocally left-of-centre, tax-and-spend, redistributionist red\u201d. The contradiction makes TOP\u2019s electoral strategy incoherent, he argues: the party can\u2019t credibly woo right-of-centre voters while also proposing a land tax and a UBI.<\/p>\n A tough hill to climb<\/p>\n The other problem is that their supporter base remains tiny. TOP\u2019s polling average this year has been 2.3%, not the 3.3% of the most recent single poll. Without an electorate seat to their name, the 5% bar is unforgiving and hard to surmount.<\/p>\n Former United Future leader Peter Dunne says TOP is in their best position yet, but warns the \u201cwasted vote\u201d problem remains their immediate challenge. \u201cIt\u2019s a real mindset that [voters] want to see a return for their vote, if you like,\u201d\u00a0he tells RNZ\u2019s Alexia Russell.<\/a>\u00a0\u201cIt becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy in a way.\u201d<\/p>\n Yet, as Milne notes, the decline of the two major parties\u2019 vote share is prompting many supporters to believe TOP now has its best shot at a seat since the party\u2019s founding by Gareth Morgan in November 2016. Are they right? Time will tell.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"TOP has a new policy platform, a new leader and a newly curious supporter base. 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