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<\/p>\nTalk of a \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d developing in 2026 is gaining momentum, with concerns rising that this climate pattern could bring extreme rainfall, heat, drought and destructive flooding around the world.<\/p>\n
By Pedro DiNezio for The Conversation<\/p>\n
The signals appear to be in place: The tropical Pacific is warming along the equator, and computer models point toward extreme conditions by the end of the year.<\/p>\n
However, forecasting El Ni\u00f1o is not like predicting next week\u2019s weather. Forecasts for El Ni\u00f1o typically aren\u2019t reliable before late northern spring \u2013 not because scientists don\u2019t understand the system, but because we understand its limits.<\/p>\n
As an ocean-atmospheric scientist who studies El Ni\u00f1o, I spend a lot of time thinking about what scientists can forecast confidently \u2013 and what remains uncertain. Here\u2019s what we know about the current event, what we still don\u2019t, and why many regions should begin preparing now, even if a strong, or \u201csuper,\u201d El Ni\u00f1o never fully materialises. <\/p>\n
The starting point for any El Ni\u00f1o forecast is the heat stored beneath the surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Computer models use data about those conditions to simulate how ocean temperatures will evolve over the coming months, and how they affect weather patterns around the world.<\/p>\n
Right now, an exceptionally large reservoir of warm water sits beneath the surface there. In principle, this ocean heat should be a reliable signal of El Ni\u00f1o developing. In practice, what happens next depends heavily on what the atmosphere does.<\/p>\n
The warm reservoir was shaped by a burst of wind activity in early 2026. Normally, the Pacific trade winds blow from east to west along the equator, pushing warm water toward Asia and leaving cooler water near South America. But in April, a pair of cyclones straddling the equator caused the wind direction to reverse. This short-lived reversal triggered a downwelling Kelvin wave \u2013 a pulse of energy beneath the ocean surface moving eastward along the equator.<\/p>\n
That subsurface pulse has now reached the eastern Pacific, helping fuel intense warming off South America. At the ocean surface, this can resemble the early stages of a strong El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Types of El Ni\u00f1o differ based on climate and location. (Supplied: NOAA) <\/p>\n
But there is a catch.<\/p>\n
For El Ni\u00f1o to develop fully, the ocean and atmosphere need to lock into a feedback loop: Warmer surface waters weaken the trade winds, triggering more downwelling Kelvin waves that push warm water eastward and reinforce the warming. But that loop doesn\u2019t engage automatically. It requires repeated bursts of eastward winds to sustain the process.<\/p>\n
Until that feedback loop takes hold, the ocean-atmosphere system is in an unpredictable phase. It might tip into a super El Ni\u00f1o. It might not.<\/p>\n
Spring is precisely when forecasts are most uncertain. Impressive early signals can fade if the winds don\u2019t cooperate.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s a further complication: When models detect strong subsurface warming, they can simulate a stronger feedback loop than actually develops.<\/p>\n
The result is that models can look too confident \u2013 even alarming \u2013 despite the system not being locked in. As of mid-May 2026, the wind patterns needed to amplify the warming have not clearly emerged.<\/p>\n
We\u2019ve seen this scenario play out before. In both 2014 and 2017, forecast models were pointing toward strong El Ni\u00f1o conditions by midyear. In both cases, the anticipated wind patterns never fully materialized and El Ni\u00f1o either stayed weak or returned to a neutral state. The early signals were real, but the expected follow-through didn\u2019t happen.<\/p>\n
![\"Drought](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/forest-fire-from-drought-7INDP4OEPRDD7PTPVNNCIGMCNM.jpg\")
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Drought and fires can be caused in warmer, drier areas of the world. (Source: istock.com)<\/p>\n
So what do the forecasts suggest?<\/p>\n
The current forecasts for 2026-27 still span a wide range in mid-May \u2013 from expecting weak to strong El Ni\u00f1o conditions.<\/p>\n
How the winds behave in the coming weeks will determine what develops. If trade winds weaken again at the right moment, it could tip the system into self-sustaining warming \u2013 the kind that\u2019s hard to stop.<\/p>\n
As of mid-May, long-range weather forecasts weren\u2019t showing strong eastward wind bursts on the horizon that could strengthen El Ni\u00f1o. In fact, quite the opposite was expected for the second half of May: a burst of winds blowing in the opposite direction. A full month without major eastward wind activity would be a meaningful brake on ocean warming.<\/p>\n
The Pacific has loaded the dice for El Ni\u00f1o, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s May outlook reflects elevated odds of El Ni\u00f1o developing and potentially strengthening later in the year. By NOAA\u2019s mid-June update, the picture should be substantially clearer.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o intensity matters for weather worldwide<\/p>\n
The difference between a weak El Ni\u00f1o and an extreme one is not subtle. It reshapes climate patterns across the globe \u2013 and with them, real-world risks.<\/p>\n
If El Ni\u00f1o intensifies into a strong or \u201csuper\u201d event, it can drive drought in the Amazon, fires in Indonesia, flooding in Peru and heavy rainfall in parts of California and southern South America. These effects could materialise by the Northern Hemisphere winter, when El Ni\u00f1o typically peaks.<\/p>\n
In some regions, the stakes are immediate.<\/p>\n
In India, the monsoon rains, which support agriculture and water supplies for hundreds of millions of people, have historically weakened during strong El Ni\u00f1o events. Even modest shifts in monsoon strength can bring food and water shortages, and harm economies.<\/p>\n
At the same time, when El Ni\u00f1o is strong, hurricane activity in the Atlantic is typically suppressed \u2013 a rare upside \u2013 while the eastern Pacific often becomes more active with storms.<\/p>\n
Cloud cover and the amount of heat the ocean releases alter the planet\u2019s energy balance.<\/p>\n
In contrast, a weak El Ni\u00f1o produces far more muted effects. This is why predicting intensity matters.<\/p>\n
![\"El](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/el-nino-probability-TYY4OLQK7ZFEJO3EXHJSXX4ZAU.png\")
<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o events are more probable in the Pacific over the summer months between November and February. (Supplied: NOAA) (Source: The Conversation)<\/p>\n
Using uncertain forecasts in real-world decisions<\/p>\n
Because El Ni\u00f1o forecasts deal in probabilities, deciding how to prepare for the seasons ahead should be based on managing risk \u2013 not waiting for certainty.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s impact does not occur everywhere at once. Some effects emerge quickly. Its impact on the Indian monsoon and Atlantic hurricane activity unfold over the summer and early fall.<\/p>\n
Other impacts arrive later, toward the end of the year when El Ni\u00f1o peaks, bringing extreme rainfall to parts of South America between November and January. In Southeast Asia, scorching heatwaves often emerge even later, in April of the following year.<\/p>\n
In regions like India, decisions about how to respond to El Ni\u00f1o risks cannot wait for more certainty. Communities need to prepare their water infrastructure now in case El Ni\u00f1o means the monsoon season brings too little rain.<\/p>\n
Even where forecasts suggest reduced risks \u2013 such as a quieter Atlantic hurricane season \u2013 it would be a mistake to assume safety. Destructive hurricanes still hit in otherwise quiet years.<\/p>\n
Pedro DiNezio is an Associate Research Professor in Climate Modelling at the University of Colorado Boulder.<\/p>\n