{"id":434025,"date":"2026-05-18T22:15:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T22:15:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/434025\/"},"modified":"2026-05-18T22:15:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T22:15:08","slug":"imf-urges-uk-to-stay-the-course-on-borrowing-amid-starmer-uncertainty-economics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/434025\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF urges UK to \u2018stay the course\u2019 on borrowing amid Starmer uncertainty | Economics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The International Monetary Fund has urged Britain to \u201cstay the course\u201d to cut government borrowing amid growing bond market concerns over a Labour leadership challenge.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">As Keir Starmer battles to cling on to power, the Washington-based fund said it was important to continue reducing the budget deficit \u201cgiven market pressures and elevated implementation risks\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In its annual health check on the UK economy, the IMF praised the chancellor, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/rachel-reeves\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Rachel Reeves<\/a>, for striking \u201ca good balance between deficit reduction and growth-friendly spending\u201d as it upgraded its growth forecasts for 2026.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">After <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2026\/apr\/14\/iran-war-global-recession-imf-uk-growth-forecasts-oil-prices#:~:text=In%20its%20half%2Dyearly%20update,by%20the%20middle%20of%202026.\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">sounding the alarm last month<\/a> that Britain would suffer the heaviest economic blow from the Iran war, it increased its forecasts for growth of 0.8% to 1% to reflect the UK\u2019s \u201cstrong prewar momentum\u201d and a robust performance in the first quarter of the year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Reeves said the upgrade showed the government had the \u201cright economic plan\u201d after official figures <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2026\/may\/14\/uk-economy-records-surprise-growth-first-month-iran-war-ons-data\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">released last week<\/a> showed the economy grew at a stronger rate than first anticipated at the start of the year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In a thinly veiled rebuke to Labour MPs considering toppling Starmer, she said: \u201cPutting our stability at risk when signs of progress are emerging would leave families and businesses worse off.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The IMF intervention comes amid a sharp rise in government borrowing costs worldwide amid the mounting economic fallout from the Iran war. Investors also fret that a Labour leadership challenge could topple Starmer and lead to a successor increasing borrowing levels.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Investors have highlighted comments by Andy Burnham, the favourite to replace Starmer should he win a byelection to return to parliament, that Britain was too \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/2025\/sep\/25\/andy-burnham-alarms-city-call-end-uk-dependence-foreign-lenders\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">in hock to the bond markets<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The Greater Manchester mayor has since softened his stance, suggesting at the weekend he was committed to the government\u2019s current fiscal rules and reducing the UK\u2019s debt levels. However, he has also called for a more radical policy stance, including borrowing to fund defence and the nationalisation of leading utilities including water and energy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Against a volatile backdrop in global markets, the yield \u2013 in effect the interest rate \u2013 on UK government bonds, or gilts, rose on Monday before falling back.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The yield on 30-year UK government bonds, or gilts, reached 5.8% last week, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2026\/may\/12\/uk-borrowing-costs-keir-starmer-bond-yields-pound-dollar-labour\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the highest level since 1998<\/a>, before slipping back after a challenge failed to immediately materialise.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In its annual \u201carticle IV\u201d health check, the IMF warned the risks to the British economy were tilted to the downside and the risk that \u201cdomestic uncertainty could also add to the already volatile global environment\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Although stopping short of highlighting the pressure on Starmer, the fund said that Britain was hemmed in by tough \u201ceconomic realities\u201d that would limit the government\u2019s capacity for a radical shift.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Luc Eyraud, the IMF mission chief to the UK, said: \u201cToday\u2019s policymaking is constrained by a more volatile external environment with more frequent and overlapping shocks; a rising public interest bill in part reflecting market concerns with countries\u2019 elevated debt, and the longstanding challenge of weak productivity growth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cThese structural realities define the limits of policy choices and must be fully recognised in designing future policies.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">With Britons contemplating the prospect of a sixth prime minister in seven years, Eyraud said the economy could benefit from a period of stability and the implementation of the government\u2019s current policies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cIn a more shock-prone world, there is a premium on policy predictability and on measures that strengthen confidence and resilience,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Britain\u2019s rising borrowing costs are expected to add to the government\u2019s debt servicing costs, adding to an already <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk-news\/2025\/nov\/24\/bond-market-power-rachel-reeves-budget\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u00a3100bn-a-year<\/a> interest bill \u2013 a sum representing about \u00a31 out of every \u00a310 spent by the Treasury.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Eyraud said that as a consequence the government had \u201climited fiscal space\u201d to respond to the economic shock from the Iran war, which he warned would stoke inflation and drag down activity later this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">With Reeves preparing to unveil further cost-of-living support measures on Thursday, the IMF warned any interventions should be \u201ctargeted, temporary and affordable\u201d to avoid testing financial market confidence.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">It comes with the chancellor reportedly poised to announce plans to scrap a 5p increase in fuel duty from September \u2013 a measure costing \u00a32.4bn that would have a blanket effect, rather than providing targeted support to the lowest-income households.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The International Monetary Fund has urged Britain to \u201cstay the course\u201d to cut government borrowing amid growing bond&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":434026,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-434025","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434025","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=434025"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434025\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/434026"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=434025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=434025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=434025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}