All of this will tell us much about the scale and timing of any OCR increases to come. I’m picking July or September \u2013 maybe both \u2013 but I\u2019m also very conscious of the downside risks to the economy and hence also inflation (although there are obviously also plenty of upwards price pressures too). <\/p>\n
Suffice it to say, I can\u2019t recommend any particular borrowing strategy. But if recent signs that the economy is turning down are sustained, any increases in the OCR may not be sharp or prolonged, which suggests something vaguely similar for mortgage rates. <\/p>\n
2. Retailers still battling <\/p>\n
Speaking of the economy, last week\u2019s key releases had a distinctly consumer-sector focus, with the performance of services index below the 50 rise\/fall mark in April, and nominal electronic card spending enduring a very tough month too \u2013 even though prices have risen. In other words, behaviour already seems to be changing and wallets are being closed. <\/p>\n
In key markets such as Auckland and Wellington, the sluggish services\/retail sector helps to explain some additional house price weakness too. <\/p>\n
3. Finally a slowdown for mortgage lending as well? <\/p>\n
Meanwhile, mortgage lending flows have performed pretty well over the first few months of the year, even though the number of underlying property sales has softened. On Tuesday this week the RBNZ will publish April\u2019s lending stats, and I just wonder if we\u2019ll finally see a clearer slowdown. Even if we don\u2019t, the release is always intriguing regardless, as it also has breakdowns by LVR, DTI, and loan type (e.g. house purchase, bank switch\/refinance). <\/p>\n
![\"Homeowners](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/57f6105472e4abffaaf1b5d17288c7f6.jpg\")
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Cotality chief economist Kelvin Davidson: “Major giveaways seem pretty unlikely.” Photo \/ Peter Meecham<\/p>\n
4. Have filled jobs done their dash? <\/p>\n
This week we\u2019ll also get filled jobs figures for April from Stats NZ on Thursday. The numbers held up pretty well in March, but were always likely to take a bit longer than some other indicators to show any reaction to the Iran conflict. Clearly, employment will hold a big key to how the housing market fares in the coming months, so this is an important release on Thursday \u2013 and could be softer. <\/p>\n
5. The Budget might come and go fairly quickly <\/p>\n
We\u2019ve also got Budget 2026 on Thursday at 2pm, but I\u2019m struggling even more than normal to get particularly excited about it. Any major giveaways seem pretty unlikely and it may well pass into history quite quickly. On the property front, there certainly don\u2019t seem to be any major policy announcements looming, although never say never, I suppose. <\/p>\n