{"id":45005,"date":"2025-09-26T20:11:27","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T20:11:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/45005\/"},"modified":"2025-09-26T20:11:27","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T20:11:27","slug":"why-hotter-summers-are-bad-for-the-uk-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/45005\/","title":{"rendered":"Why hotter summers are bad for the UK economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>When we think about the impact of climate change on the economy, images of droughts in Africa or hurricanes in the Caribbean might come to mind. But even in advanced economies such as the UK, hotter summers are being shown to carry a heavy price.<\/p>\n<p>The past few summers in the UK have been among the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/about-us\/news-and-media\/media-centre\/weather-and-climate-news\/2025\/summer-2025-is-the-warmest-on-record-for-the-uk\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">hottest on record<\/a>. In summer 2025, average temperatures across much of the country were more than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/weather\/articles\/c1kz18d3wjro\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">1.5\u00b0C higher<\/a> than the usual seasonal average, with parts of southern England around <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/about-us\/news-and-media\/media-centre\/weather-and-climate-news\/2025\/summer-2025-is-the-warmest-on-record-for-the-uk\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">2\u00b0C hotter than normal<\/a>. What does that mean for the economy?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/topics\/extreme-heat-41752\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The heat<\/a> invites people outdoors. Beaches are packed, pub gardens overflow and families fire up the barbecue. Trade association the British Retail Consortium reported that retail sales <a href=\"https:\/\/brc.org.uk\/news-and-events\/news\/august-rounds-off-solid-summer-of-sales\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">increased by 3.1%<\/a> in June compared to the same month in 2024. This was driven by a surge in sales of food, drink, and leisure products. From ice cream trips to garden makeovers and days out, sunshine typically encourages feel-good, spur-of-the-moment spending.<\/p>\n<p>But warmer summers have downsides. High temperatures have a big effect on health, putting people at risk of heat stress, heat stroke and even death. Accommodation in the UK is designed to retain heat, which means that currently, 32% of homes in London and 17% of homes outside London <a href=\"https:\/\/www.resolutionfoundation.org\/publications\/its-getting-hot-in-here\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">are overheated<\/a>. And the percentages of homes at risk of future overheating jump to 55% in London, and 33% in the rest of the country.<\/p>\n<p>Heat also affects people while they\u2019re at work. For those who work outside, the weather can have a serious impact on their health and wellbeing if it is not properly managed. And for indoor workers, a similar phenomenon occurs as workplaces in the UK \u2013 just like homes \u2013 are designed to retain heat.<\/p>\n<p>The UK\u2019s hotter summers have become such an issue that some unions are campaigning for a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pcs.org.uk\/news-events\/news\/protecting-workers-extreme-heat-pcs-backs-tuc-call-legal-limits#:%7E:text=The%20TUC%20is%20calling%20for,becoming%20more%20frequent%20and%20severe.\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">maximum temperature set by law<\/a> of 30\u00b0C for non-strenuous indoor work. Currently, there is only guidance for a minimum temperature (16\u00b0C or 13\u00b0C if employees are doing physical work). <\/p>\n<p>And the problems for workers can start even before they make it to work: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.networkrail.co.uk\/campaigns\/hot-weather-and-the-railway\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">overheated rails<\/a> mean slower trains or even cancellations.<\/p>\n<p>Counting the cost<\/p>\n<p>Some industries are hit harder by the weather, not just through its effect on workers, but due to the heat itself. The hot summer of 2025 has made it <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fwi.co.uk\/news\/weather\/hottest-summer-pushes-uk-farmers-to-brink\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">difficult for farmers<\/a>, who have seen cereal harvests shrink, grazing land dry up and animals suffer. In some areas, up to half of cereal and potato crops have been lost, with harvests arriving two to three weeks earlier than usual.<\/p>\n<p>So, are hotter summers good or bad for the UK economy? <a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1111\/obes.12681\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Our study<\/a> examined more than two decades of local economic data across the UK and matched it with seasonal temperature records. We found that a 1\u00b0C increase in summer temperatures reduces UK economic growth by about 2.4%.<\/p>\n<p>Effect of 1\u00b0C rise in seasonal temperature on UK economic growth (%)<\/p>\n<p>            <a href=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/692669\/original\/file-20250924-56-8mipjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"graph showing percentage effect of 1 \u00b0C rise in seasonal temperature on UK economic growth\" class=\"lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/file-20250924-56-8mipjh.jpg\"  \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>              That one-degree shift can come at a high economic cost.<br \/>\n              Author provided (no reuse)<\/p>\n<p>In practical terms, that means that even a modest rise in average summer heat can shave billions of pounds off the economy. But why does this happen? <\/p>\n<p>Hot summers disrupt work and production. Businesses may see more staff off sick due to heat stress and related illnesses. Productivity in offices, factories and farms often drops as workers struggle in higher temperatures. <\/p>\n<p>Our study shows that the agricultural sector is especially vulnerable. Hot, dry summers damage crops and livestock, and since much of the UK\u2019s general cropping and dairy farming is concentrated in the <a href=\"https:\/\/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk\/media\/6331b071e90e0711d5d595df\/AUK_Evidence_Pack_2021_Sept22.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">south of the country<\/a>, this area bears the brunt of economic losses.<\/p>\n<p>            <a href=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/692429\/original\/file-20250923-66-8vsnpn.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"a field of brown and withered strawberry plants in england\" class=\"lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/file-20250923-66-8vsnpn.jpg\"  \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>              Some of the UK\u2019s strawberry crops couldn\u2019t cope with heat and drought conditions over summer 2025.<br \/>\n              <a class=\"source\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shutterstock.com\/image-photo\/england-3rd-june-2025-field-withered-2673742381\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Maulana Noriandita\/Shutterstock<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Our findings also reveal that the impact of hot summers is not evenly spread across the country. Wealthier councils (those with an annual GDP higher than the national average income) are actually more vulnerable. The south of England, comprising the south-east (including London), the south-west, and the east of England, experiences the sharpest economic declines. <\/p>\n<p>This is partly because the south is both hotter on average and home to many of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/statistics\/agricultural-facts-england-regional-profiles\/agricultural-facts-summary\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the country\u2019s farms<\/a>. London alone, which generates more than half of the UK\u2019s financial services output, emerges as a key \u201chotspot\u201d of vulnerability. <\/p>\n<p>We also found evidence that patterns of energy use matter. During hot summers, electricity consumption drops compared to during other seasons. While this might sound like a good thing, it signals reduced industrial activity, offices closing or shifts in working patterns that dampen economic growth.<\/p>\n<p>The message from our research is clear \u2013 hot summers are not just uncomfortable, they are economically costly. Unless adaptation measures \u2013 better cooling infrastructure, workplace protections and support for climate-resilient farming \u2013 are introduced, the UK risks losing billions as heatwaves become more frequent.<\/p>\n<p>Climate change cannot be dismissed as a distant challenge. Our research shows its economic fingerprints are already visible in Britain\u2019s summer heat. Preparing for hotter summers is not just an environmental issue, it is an urgent economic priority.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"When we think about the impact of climate change on the economy, images of droughts in Africa or&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":45006,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-45005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45005","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45005"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45005\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45006"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45005"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45005"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45005"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}