{"id":450770,"date":"2026-05-29T08:11:16","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T08:11:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/450770\/"},"modified":"2026-05-29T08:11:16","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T08:11:16","slug":"top-economist-casts-doubt-on-willis-surplus-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/450770\/","title":{"rendered":"Top economist casts doubt on Willis&#8217; surplus forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  [&amp;_p]:tit-sub-xl tit-sub-xl md:[&amp;_p]:d-tit-sub-xl md:d-tit-sub-xl mb-[1.3rem]\">ANZ&#8217;s chief economist says it&#8217;s not at all clear that the Government will reach its forecast surplus.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">By Russell Palmer, Lillian Hanly and Lauren Crimp of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rnz.co.nz\/news\/political\/596665\/just-need-to-vote-for-it-nicola-willis-ends-budget-speech-with-call-to-arms-for-supporters\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">RNZ<\/a> <\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Sharon Zollner was speaking at an ANZ post-Budget event on Friday morning, ahead of a speech by Finance Minister Nicola Willis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.1news.co.nz\/2026\/05\/28\/analysis-nicola-willis-budget-2026-keeping-the-lights-on\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Government&#8217;s Budget<\/a> on Thursday afternoon forecast <a href=\"https:\/\/www.1news.co.nz\/2026\/05\/28\/budget-2026-new-tax-changes-as-nz-to-return-to-surplus-sooner\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">a return to surplus<\/a> in 2028-29 \u2013 a year earlier than expected.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">That includes assumptions such as the Iran war and high fuel prices being temporary.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Zollner told the audience the Budget was not austere, but not generous either \u2013 &#8220;a pragmatic kind of compromise&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">She cast doubt on the surplus.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/sticky-domestic-inflation-not-coming-down-yet-expert-QAAGDLRKQ5CY5FBJS3EKU6ESIU.png\" alt=\"ANZ's chief economist Sharon Zollner\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"ImageMetadata__MetadataParagraph-sc-hi5x8q-0 cWTYyG image-metadata\">ANZ&#8217;s chief economist Sharon Zollner (Source: Breakfast)<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;It&#8217;s not at all clear that the forecast surplus will happen,&#8221; she said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Economic forecasts beyond even three months are uncertain \u2013 let alone many years, said Zollner.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;But as they say, politics is the art of the possible, and it&#8217;s election year.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Speaking to reporters afterwards, Willis said she agreed with Zollner about the level of uncertainty, saying it was a &#8220;very difficult time&#8221; for Treasury forecasters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;I think it&#8217;s of note that even in their downside scenario, they still forecast that a return to surplus could be achieved, but we can&#8217;t take it for granted and the world is uncertain.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">That was why the Government was being prudent in the Budget, including opting for a rainy day fund of nearly half a billion dollars for future potential fuel responses, rather than dishing out immediate relief, Willis said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-greyDarkFaded\">Finance Minister Nicola Willis delivered the &#8220;responsible&#8221; Budget in Parliament today. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">While the Strait of Hormuz situation was &#8220;a real setback for many households, many businesses&#8221;, the minister said she put trust in Treasury forecasts that oil prices would normalise and inflation would fall.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">The Finance Minister ended her Thursday Budget speech with a call to arms for supporters: &#8220;Kiwis can look forward with confidence, they just need to choose it, they just need to vote for it.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Her <a href=\"https:\/\/www.1news.co.nz\/2026\/05\/28\/budget-2026-new-motorway-funded-bowel-cancer-screening-age-lowered\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">sugar-free Budget<\/a> \u2013 with no election year sweetener \u2013 has caused some minor coalition friction, but it lays down a challenge to their opponents: Come up with a better plan.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">As promised, there was little new operational spending, but more capital for new infrastructure.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">The return to surplus was projected for a year earlier than the previous forecast, but the 2028\/29 timeframe is still considerably later than National promised ahead of the last election.<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-greyDarkFaded\">It comes with some deep cuts within the public service and the scrapping of final-year fees-free at university. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Asked on RNZ&#8217;s Morning Report on Friday if the approach was risky in an election year, Willis said it &#8220;would have been very risky for the country for me to take an approach which was all about winning votes and my political expediency&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;It&#8217;s a Budget that does what&#8217;s right for the country. And I trust my fellow New Zealanders that they can see that this is not a time to be getting us further into the hock, to be whacking another set of bills on the credit card. This is a time to making sure the country&#8217;s well set up for what could be challenges ahead.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Budget grows inequity \u2013 Opposition<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Where Willis said her Budget was about careful management of taxpayer money, the Opposition argued it was about growing inequity.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/nicola-willis-getty-OUI66FXEJ5FFFPGYD7JKQ2MKHM.jpg\" alt=\"Minister of Finance Nicola Willis attending a pre-budget lunch on May 19, 2026 in Auckland.\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"ImageMetadata__MetadataParagraph-sc-hi5x8q-0 cWTYyG image-metadata\">Minister of Finance Nicola Willis attending a pre-budget lunch on May 19, 2026 in Auckland. (Source: Getty)<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Labour leader Chris Hipkins was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.1news.co.nz\/2026\/05\/28\/no-hope-no-plan-opposition-parties-react-to-budget-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">sceptical of the forecasts,<\/a>which he said were all based on petrol prices dropping from now.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;Those economic growth forecasts are still lower than they were before the election.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Willis said while the Strait of Hormuz situation was &#8220;a real setback for many households, many businesses&#8221;, she put trust in Treasury forecasts that oil prices would normalise and inflation would fall. If they did not, the Budget set aside nearly half-a-billion dollars to respond, she said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;It&#8217;s a very hard time to be forecasting because no one knows how the ayatollahs and Donald Trump are going to sort out the conflict in the Middle East.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Asked what Labour would do differently, Hipkins said the party would take time to &#8220;do our homework properly&#8221; and &#8220;take time to digest the Budget&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Labour has repeatedly stated it would provide policy after it saw the forecasts in this year&#8217;s Budget.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;Obviously, we&#8217;ve only just seen the Government&#8217;s Budget,&#8221; Hipkins said. &#8220;We&#8217;re going to set out our own plan.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Hipkins has promised some policy in June \u2013 so, as soon as Monday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">However, Labour&#8217;s finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said the fiscal plan would not come for at least few weeks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;I need to crunch through this Budget, and go through line by line \u2013 have a look at the savings, have a look at the different assumptions that underpin those forecasts, have a look at all the different programmes within the vote.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/labour-finance-spokesperson-barbara-edmonds-MVILSM43CZHR7B4JOJSKJIVU3A.png\" alt=\"Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds.\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"ImageMetadata__MetadataParagraph-sc-hi5x8q-0 cWTYyG image-metadata\">Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds. (Source: Breakfast)<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">The Greens were thinking about those doing it toughest, with co-leader Chl\u00f6e Swarbrick saying &#8220;kids in poverty can&#8217;t eat their surplus&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">The Budget showed her the Government had &#8220;no hope, no plan, no ambition, and no vision for this country&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;That plan is just what we see here, allowing corporations to profit handsomely off the misery of regular New Zealanders,&#8221; she said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;They have actively made decisions to push more children into poverty.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/green-party-co-leaders-marama-davidson-and-chloe-swarbrick-43V5ZPVGOFB5FJP4CCVP5TEENA.jpg\" alt=\"Green Party co-leaders Marama Davidson and Chl&#xF6;e Swarbrick.\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"ImageMetadata__MetadataParagraph-sc-hi5x8q-0 cWTYyG image-metadata\">Green Party co-leaders Marama Davidson and Chl\u00f6e Swarbrick. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Co-leader Marama Davidson said those kids could not wait for &#8220;fantasy growth&#8221; from the Government. &#8220;They need it now.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">She asked what prudence and fiscal responsibility meant to those nervously watching their supermarket bill at the checkout.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;What do those words mean to the mothers who are missing meals just so the rest of their kids can have kai?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Willis said the country needed to be &#8220;on top of its finances&#8221; or more money would be spent paying debt interest costs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;Every dollar being spent on debt can&#8217;t be spent on a hospital, on a school. on a road, on the things that New Zealanders care about. And if we&#8217;re a country that isn&#8217;t on top of its debt, then actually we start losing choices very quickly.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori co-leader Rawiri Waititi said the Budget was not about the &#8220;haves and have-nots&#8221; but about the &#8220;have-nots and have yachts&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">He was not surprised by the Budget, saying M\u0101ori had not featured in any of the Budgets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;It&#8217;s the least investment in M\u0101ori that we&#8217;ve seen in the last 15 years, when this government was the last in charge of the purse strings of our democracy.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Coalition tension over superannuation, bank levy<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/te-pati-maori-co-leader-rawiri-waititi-speaks-during-budget-M2YC4HUNQJGJTOH6E5C72PUVZQ.jpg\" alt=\" Te P&#x101;ti M&#x101;ori co-leader Rawiri Waititi speaks during Budget Day 2026\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"ImageMetadata__MetadataParagraph-sc-hi5x8q-0 cWTYyG image-metadata\"> Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori co-leader Rawiri Waititi speaks during Budget Day 2026 (Source: Getty)<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Across the aisle, there was much outward support for the Budget, although one point touched a nerve.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Willis warned that any party ignoring the size of the problem of superannuation was doing so for its own benefit.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Her comments were a clear dig at New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, and Labour \u2013 which have both pushed back on changes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Peters said it was an &#8220;unfortunate mistake&#8221; saying he suspected National wanted to privatise the Cullen fund \u2013 the New Zealand Super Fund.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">He said, for the last 40 years, the major parties had &#8220;demonstrated they can&#8217;t run the economy their way properly&#8221;, and that when &#8220;people thought more like New Zealand First&#8221; the growth rate in the economy was running at a higher rate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Responding to that on Friday, Willis said super costs were going up at a &#8220;rapid clip&#8221; \u2013 $1.8b next year alone.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;I worry about a future in which suddenly, because no one has done anything about it, the government comes in and either whacks up taxes on working people or vastly changes that entitlement in a way that&#8217;s unfair.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Asked how she would make changes to superannuation if National needed to form a coalition with New Zealand First, Willis said it would come down to a healthy debate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-greyDarkFaded\">The Finance Minister says the Government will fall well short of its 10% child poverty target \u2014 with the real figure expected to sit closer to 18%. (Source: Breakfast)<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;I will go to the campaign trail as the National Party finance spokesperson with my view on what would be appropriate, well signalled, fair, transparent, gradual, gradual changes to New Zealand superannuation. And then we will do what we do in a great, healthy democracy, we&#8217;ll have a debate about that,&#8221; she said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;All I&#8217;ve been saying is, let&#8217;s not take that discussion off the table and make it banned.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">ACT&#8217;s leader David Seymour was not too keen on the new levy on banks announced as part of the Budget.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;If your answer to everything is to go out and find someone to tax, eventually you end up with a really big government and no money left for anybody else.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;And let&#8217;s be honest, banks only have one source of money \u2013 that&#8217;s their customers, so let&#8217;s not tell the easy lie that we would be taxing the banks, you&#8217;d be taxing the customers.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Willis said she was directing the banks not to do that to New Zealand customers, and she wanted a bigger levy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;I haven&#8217;t been able to convince my coalition partners yet, but I retain hope.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Willis was still &#8220;actively considering&#8221; a wider tax on banks and if she could not secure it this term, she expected it would become a National campaign policy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Peters said he was supportive of the bank levy, but pointed out there were other ways of ensuring the country had the wealth it needed to invest for the development it needed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">He said voters would have to wait and see what the party unveiled during the campaign.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">Seymour was overall supportive of the Budget, saying &#8220;we cannot spend and borrow our way to prosperity&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;We have to pay the bills and we have to balance the books,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">&#8220;This Budget is backing the hard working people who get up and make a go of it, while cutting the things that don&#8217;t work to provide more of what does.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"body-paragraph articleLinkText  lg mb-4\">He said it was a tribute to three parties working together to create the third Budget of the three-party coalition that is a &#8220;triumph that is better than our worst enemies&#8217; worst nightmares&#8221;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"ANZ&#8217;s chief economist says it&#8217;s not at all clear that the Government will reach its forecast surplus. By&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":450771,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[44640,111,43,139,69],"class_list":["post-450770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-zealand","tag-budget-2026","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/450770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=450770"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/450770\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/450771"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=450770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=450770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=450770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}