The 2025-2026 Broadway season is quickly coming to a close, culminating with the 79th Tony Awards on June 7. To most observers, it\u2019s been kind of a weird one. Only six new musicals opened on Broadway this season\u2014the fewest since COVID\u2014and both Beaches and The Queen Of Versailles closed rather quickly. Plays and revivals didn\u2019t have much more of a showing, either, leading to an awards season that can feel rather predictable in several major categories, especially after the other industry awards like the Drama Desk Awards and the Outer Critics Circle Awards. (Not to jinx anything, but Joshua Henry and Caissie Levy can probably start dusting off their mantles.) Still, there are some categories that feel more up in the air, and we\u2019ve broken down several of the more competitive, two-way races.\u00a0<\/p>\n
While it does seem like Schmigadoon! is the frontrunner here, there could be room for surprise given there\u2019s only one real potential competitor here. Titanique <\/a>is a lot of fun, but feels distinctly off-Broadway with its broad, silly sensibility. The Lost Boys, based on the 1987 movie, is quite a spectacle but was received pretty mildly by critics. Neither was able to snag a Drama Desk nomination\u2014that body also honors off-Broadway productions, so it nominated Beau The Musical, Mexodus, and The Seat Of Our Pants instead. Schmigadoon! <\/a>ultimately won that award and seems poised to win again here. Still, Two Strangers (Carry A Cake Across New York)<\/a> has garnered a pretty significant fanbase since its premiere in England in 2019 and is wholly original, so it shouldn\u2019t be counted out.\u00a0<\/p>\n Best Play: Liberation vs. The Balusters<\/p>\n Many have expected Liberation to run away with this award, and it still might. Bess Wohl\u2019s play set amid 1970s feminist consciousness-raising sessions won the Pulitzer Prize from Drama the day before the Tony nominations were announced, starting a second wave (pun intended) of support for what was already a buzzy play. Wohl\u2019s script makes 50-year-old politics feel urgent, recognizing that not only is the personal political, but that the personal realities can often get in the way of political ideals. This is a subject matter that The Balusters also touches on: Set in an upscale community in an unnamed U.S. city, David Lindsay-Abaire\u2019s script follows a community board\u2019s attempt to add a stop sign to an intersection that descends into identitarian, often petty squabbling. The Balusters is bitingly funny, extremely 2020s, and is actually still running, meaning voters still have the opportunity to see it. It has positive word-of-mouth in New York, too, and could wind up with a last-minute surge of support.\u00a0<\/p>\n Best Actor In A Play: John Lithgow in Giant vs. Nathan Lane in Death Of A Salesman<\/p>\n John Lithgow seems like frontrunner here, having earned the Drama Desk Award for his portrayal of Giant<\/a>\u2018s Roald Dahl in New York, and the Olivier Award for it in London. But it also seems like a mistake to discount just how much Broadway freaking loves Nathan Lane. His Willy Loman anchors a production that seems likely to take home the awards for Best Revival of a Play, Best Director for Joe Mantello, and Best Featured Actress in a Play for Laurie Metcalf, not to mention scenic and lighting design\u2014it\u2019s not hard to imagine that this momentum could extend to Lane. Potentially complicating this, though, is the Scott Rudin factor: The disgraced producer is staging his own comeback with this Death Of A Salesman production and not everyone is thrilled. When Lane accepted the Drama Desk for Best Revival of a Play on behalf of the production, he was subjected to scattered boos when he thanked Rudin. (To which he responded: \u201cOh, his family is here.\u201d) Then again, Lithgow has also been subject to backlash<\/a> recently irrespective of his performance in Giant, so it\u2019s hard to say whether this will actually deter any voters.\u00a0<\/p>\n Supporting Actor In A Play: Alden Ehrenreich in Becky Shaw vs. Ruben Santiago-Hudson in Joe Turner\u2019s Come And Gone<\/p>\n This feels perhaps the widest-open of the acting categories, but if I were a gambling man, I would put my money on Alden Ehrenreich. Becky Shaw is arguably the buzziest show on Broadway right now. It only received two nominations and seems unlikely to snatch Best Revival Of A Play from Death Of A Salesman. Ehrenreich\u2019s incredible performance is the flashiest of the show, and awarding him would keep a well-received show from leaving the ceremony empty-handed, and he already won the Drama Desk for the performance, his Broadway debut. By the same token, it\u2019s his Broadway debut, and Tony voters could choose to award someone more seasoned. In that case, I could see Ruben Santiago-Hudson taking home the trophy. He tied with Ehrenreich at the Drama Desks, and it\u2019s been 30 years since his win for Seven Guitars. As Bynum Walker in Joe Turner\u2019s Come And Gone, Santiago-Hudson shoulders the balance of the play\u2019s humor and pathos with aplomb, embodying what works best about the show.\u00a0<\/p>\n Featured Actress In A Musical: Nichelle Lewis in Ragtime vs. Shoshana Bean in The Lost Boys<\/p>\n Once again, we have a matchup between the Broadway veteran and the relative newcomer. Shoshana Bean has been doing this for a while\u2014she was Idina Menzel\u2019s understudy in Wicked\u2014and is on her third Tony nomination in five seasons. She makes the most of a pretty conventional mom role and elevates some of the blander musical work in The Lost Boys. She\u2019s in the show quite a lot, and the award would be an acknowledgement of her time on Broadway. (Fun fact: Caissie Levy, another Broadway vet who\u2019s poised to win Best Actress in a Musical this year, was slated to play Bean\u2019s part before Ragtime was extended.) Nichelle Lewis, meanwhile, gives a true supporting performance as Sarah in Ragtime, providing much of the emotional anchor to the musical of the season. This is only Lewis\u2019 second Broadway show and she\u2019ll certainly have other chances to win, but it\u2019s hard to imagine this Ragtime without her.\u00a0<\/p>\n Featured Actor In A Musical: Andr\u00e9 De Shields in Cats: The Jellicle Ball vs. Ben Levi Ross in Ragtime<\/p>\n