A few factors have helped<\/a> to keep prices relatively in check. The UAE and Saudi Arabia were able to push crude through pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. China, which had been on a stockpiling spree, slashed its buying<\/a>. In fact many countries went through a spasm of panic-buying at the beginning of the conflict, which has since cooled off. The US and others tapped strategic reserves, US exports hit a record high<\/a>, temporary waivers on some sanctioned Iranian and Russian crude unlocked more frozen barrels, and a handful of tankers have managed to slip through the strait. On top of all that is demand destruction: People use less energy when it\u2019s expensive, so high prices beget lower ones.<\/p>\n The question is how long all these buffers can last relative to the pace of ceasefire talks. Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution made a useful forecast<\/a> showing that in May, the various buffers added up to enough crude to cover all but about 3.3 million barrels per day of what used to flow through the strait. But that gap is set to double to 6.4 million by July. $150, Brooks concludes, is still very much within reach, a sentiment repeated Friday by a senior ExxonMobil executive<\/a>.<\/p>\n Some version of that future appears to be locked in already, since Tehran has indicated it will need at least 30 days from the signing of a ceasefire to facilitate the return of pre-war flow levels through the strait. And that\u2019s a hopeful timeline, given the hurdles of demining, returning confidence to captains and insurers, and bringing in a legion of empty tankers to stock up \u2014 and the risk that one errant drone could reset the whole process to square one.<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/21b3ac0fbd0578642f7cfb7990527d1b62b46b9a-1066x1198.jpg\")
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