![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ed16bd15287dbd87e447a44c6ac573f1b08c3a5e.jpeg\")
<\/p>\nThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has poured cold water on fears of a recession, saying the economy is expected to continue growing even if oil prices skyrocket. <\/p>\n
Governor Michele Bullock said her monetary policy board is weighing up high global and domestic inflation, worsened by the conflict in the Middle East, in their future interest rate decisions. <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
RBA Governor Michele Bullock says AUstralia is unlikely to fall into recession.\u00a0Louise Kennerley<\/p>\n
She said inflation remains persistent but noted the three consecutive hikes this year have already shown positive signs in the economy. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve already seen some signs that this tightening is starting to work, though it will take around one to two years for the full effects to fully flow through to the economy,\u201d she told a Senate estimates hearing today.<\/p>\n
With GDP growth slowing, joblessness and interest rates increasing, and inflation surging, fears of a recession \u2013 which occurs when the economy shrinks in two or more consecutive quarters \u2013 have increased . <\/p>\n
An Oxford Economics report released in April warned Australia would suffer a sharp recession under a prolonged war in Iran, which would drive up oil prices and global inflation. <\/p>\n
However, Bullock today said the economy will likely continue to grow modestly, even under the worst scenarios of a prolonged war in the Middle East and rising inflation. <\/p>\n
\u201cWhile\u00a0these\u00a0are\u00a0challenging\u00a0conditions,\u00a0the\u00a0economy\u00a0is\u00a0still\u00a0expected\u00a0to grow even though modestly, even under these scenarios\u00a0where\u00a0oil\u00a0prices\u00a0are significantly higher than recent levels,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n
\u201cInvestment has\u00a0been\u00a0a\u00a0bright\u00a0spot\u00a0recently,\u00a0and\u00a0growth is expected to continue in sectors of the economy with strong structural tailwinds, such as software, data centres and renewable energy.\u201d <\/p>\n
Bullock\u2019s comments have effectively rebuked concerns that Australia is facing a recession, despite earlier this year warning that the war in Iran posed a \u201cglobal recession risk\u201d. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe don\u2019t want to have a recession, but if it\u2019s hard to get inflation down, then we\u2019re going to have to deal with that, possibly,\u201d she said in March.<\/p>\n
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has previously conceded the war is holding the Australian economy \u201chostage\u201d but denied suggestions of a recession. <\/p>\n
Responding to yesterday\u2019s economic growth results, he said Australia has recorded faster annual growth than other advanced economies like the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany and Japan.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur economy has got no shortage of challenges, but it\u2019s also got some very sturdy foundations,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt shows how resilient our economy is at a time of very substantial global economic volatility and instability.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has poured cold water on fears of a recession, saying the economy…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":461118,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-461117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/461117","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=461117"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/461117\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/461118"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=461117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=461117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=461117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}