![\"Prison](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/4N77VEG_copyright_image_205420.jpeg\")
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\nPhoto: Unsplash \/ Matthew Ansley\n<\/p>\n
The prison population is expected to grow by more than a third in the next decade.<\/p>\n
The annual Ministry of Justice projections also expect the number of people on remand – that is, behind bars but awaiting trial or sentencing – would leap 48 percent.<\/p>\n
The report said there would be 15,200 prisoners in June 2036 – a 35 percent increase from 11,240 in February this year.<\/p>\n
The numbers were in line with last year’s projections<\/a>.<\/p>\n The report also said there would be fewer cases before the court, but more serious cases and longer sentences, due to government policy changes.<\/p>\n Remand population on the rise<\/p>\n Currently, 4677 people in prison were on remand – 41 percent of the prison population. That was projected to reach 6900 by 2036, or 45 percent.<\/p>\n The rate of increase had slowed over the past year, but people were still spending a long time on remand, said Ministry of Justice sector insights general manager Rebecca Parish.<\/p>\n “Timely access to justice continues to be a priority, with initiatives helping to stabilise remand times in the short-term.”<\/p>\n Time spent in remand had stabilised over the last year, but that was “conservatively” projected to increase from 91 days to 110 days over the next decade, the report said.<\/p>\n The number of women entering remand was also on the rise, projected to increase 82 percent.<\/p>\n Fewer total court cases, more serious cases<\/p>\n While the overall number of cases before court was expected to decrease by 4 percent in the next decade, there would be a 5 percent increase in more serious cases, the report said.<\/p>\n “This is driven by new policy and increased prosecution associated with higher frontline police numbers,” the report said.<\/p>\n “At the same time, additional frontline police visibility may act as a deterrent for lower-level… offending.”<\/p>\n Parish said the numbers reflected the impact of recent law changes, including the Sentencing (Reform) Amendment Act<\/a> and the Crimes Amendment Bill<\/a>.<\/p>\n Under the Sentencing (Reform) Amendment Act, more people would be sent to prison, and for longer terms, she said.<\/p>\n The annual projections were vital for informing future resourcing and capacity planning across the justice sector, Parish said.<\/p>\n