{"id":47485,"date":"2025-09-28T01:57:06","date_gmt":"2025-09-28T01:57:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/47485\/"},"modified":"2025-09-28T01:57:06","modified_gmt":"2025-09-28T01:57:06","slug":"why-non-farm-payrolls-are-now-a-trading-minefield","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/47485\/","title":{"rendered":"Why non-farm payrolls are now a trading minefield"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Trump firing the head of the BLS after a poor jobs report was a major warning sign for the quality of upcoming economic data, but that&#8217;s not the only problem with non-farm payrolls right now.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">A fresh report is coming up this upcoming Friday and it&#8217;s a minefield. The main problem for traders is accounting for immigration. There is a compelling argument that the sharp drop in US immigration along with self-deportation and enforced deportation is having material impacts on the labor market. It&#8217;s extremely hard to model but the Fed&#8217;s Barkin this week said he envisions 0-50K monthly jobs as a baseline for a stable market. That&#8217;s in contrast to 100-150K in the post-pandemic era.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">There will be all kinds of downstream impacts from this but for traders, I think the risk is in over-reacting to jobs numbers close to zero. On the surface that may look &#8216;weak&#8217; but unemployment may stay flat. That&#8217;s why I think the number to doubly focus on is unemployment while ignoring swings in the non-farm payrolls headline.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">In addition, I fear that the Fed may over-react to low headline numbers and cut rates too low. That&#8217;s something that will plant the seeds of a future inflation shock or asset bubble.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Trump firing the head of the BLS after a poor jobs report was a major warning sign for&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":47486,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-47485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47485","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47485"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47485\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47486"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47485"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47485"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47485"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}