{"id":488886,"date":"2026-06-21T20:35:10","date_gmt":"2026-06-21T20:35:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/488886\/"},"modified":"2026-06-21T20:35:10","modified_gmt":"2026-06-21T20:35:10","slug":"election-2026-national-may-be-playing-happy-at-party-conference-but-senior-mps-futures-are-at-risk-jamie-ensor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/488886\/","title":{"rendered":"Election 2026: National may be playing happy at party conference, but senior MPs\u2019 futures are at risk \u2013 Jamie Ensor"},"content":{"rendered":"

But behind the bright blue lights at the National conference and the standing ovations for various ministers and policies \u2013 Erica Stanford and the new KiwiSaver initiatives got a roaring reception from members<\/a> \u2013 there is a sense of gloom in some quarters.<\/p>\n

However the party wants to spin it publicly, unless its polling can be drastically improved, there is a reckoning coming for National.<\/p>\n

That could present itself in the form of losing a large number of MPs, including possibly some senior ones.<\/p>\n

When the Herald tried to ask leader Christopher Luxon about whether he was concerned he could lose some senior MPs if the party\u2019s polling didn\u2019t improve, he outright dismissed the question.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t talk about polling,\u201d the Prime Minister said from the comfort of standing in a safe seat and being automatically given the top list spot under National\u2019s constitution.<\/p>\n

\"PrimePrime Minister Christopher Luxon spoke at National’s party conference. Photo \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n

National has been stuck around the 30% mark for months now<\/a>, without any sign of improvement. Maybe that will change as it switches from governing to electioneering, but there is also no guarantee.<\/p>\n

On Friday night, National issued two press releases announcing that Gerry Brownlee, the Speaker, and first-term MP Nancy Lu had secured list-only positions for the election. That means they won\u2019t contest an electorate like most other party candidates.<\/p>\n

These list-only positions aren\u2019t just handed out willy-nilly. The candidates are often given rankings on the eventual list that reflect the desire by party leadership for them to enter Parliament.<\/p>\n

The announcements came at the end of a day-long National Party caucus meeting hosted by Luxon at Premier House.<\/p>\n

Alerting the media to the decisions before the conference began was important as party material handed around at the Lower Hutt Event Centre revealed the pair\u2019s list-only positions. (The absence of National MP Andrew Bayly also confirmed he wouldn\u2019t be standing again, as the Herald revealed on Saturday<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

But the announcement also brought the difficult position for some National MPs back into the spotlight.<\/p>\n

Depending on how many electorates National wins \u2013 something that won\u2019t be known until election night or even later \u2013 the party could have a limited number of list spots available to those candidates who don\u2019t win their own seat.<\/p>\n

Predicting electorate results is tricky and not an exact science, but typically the better a party does nationally, the more seats it picks up.<\/p>\n

National is therefore likely to lose some, while Labour will win some back. How many is the question.<\/p>\n

This puts those MPs who could require a list position to get back into Parliament in a nerve-wracking position.<\/p>\n

Among those potentially at risk are Chris Bishop, Paul Goldsmith and Brownlee.<\/p>\n

\"NationalNational MP Chris Bishop’s position isn’t secured. Photo \/ Jason Dorday<\/p>\n

David Farrar, a National pollster and political commentator, has done some analysis on his Patreon website looking at who will and won\u2019t return to Parliament, based on recent polling.<\/p>\n

He has also made projections about what electorates it will win and lose using a methodology that considers the change in the party vote and electorate boundaries (but doesn\u2019t account for particular quirks to individual races).<\/p>\n

His current forecast is for National to receive just two list positions (some of the electorate races are very close, so this could change by election night).<\/p>\n

Using National\u2019s current rankings, this would see deputy Nicola Willis return, as well as Bishop, who is currently at number three. Sayonara to many backbenchers who are expected to lose their electorates.<\/p>\n

Bishop holds the very marginal Hutt South electorate, having won it by just 1332 votes in 2023.<\/p>\n

There is no certainty he will win it back \u2013 in fact, he told the Herald on Sunday that it was \u201carguably a Labour seat\u201d. Without it, he will need the list.<\/p>\n

You\u2019d not normally expect to see someone of Bishop\u2019s rank at risk.<\/p>\n

Former Attorney-General and National MP Christopher Finlayson recently said on his podcast that when he was in office under Sir John Key, he didn\u2019t even think about whether he would return to Parliament on the party list, as National was so dominant at the time.<\/p>\n

Now is not then. Now, National, the main party of a first-term Government, is less popular than the main Opposition party.<\/p>\n

Bishop told the Herald he didn\u2019t focus too much on list rankings as there are \u201cso many variables going on\u201d between the party vote, how many electorates are won, wasted vote, split votes and more.<\/p>\n

\u201cI know there\u2019s models out there and people doing estimates and things like that. I don\u2019t get too focused on that, to be honest.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said people could \u201cspend all day fixating on it and drive yourself demented\u201d.<\/p>\n

Bishop also wouldn\u2019t say if he wanted to retain the third list spot, saying that was for National\u2019s ranking committee.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a competitive process,\u201d Bishop admitted.<\/p>\n

\"National'sNational’s Gerry Brownlee has been Speaker this term. Photo \/ Mark Mitchell<\/p>\n

It would be an incredible result if Bishop didn\u2019t return. He\u2019s one of the party\u2019s highest-ranked ministers, who oversees some of the Government\u2019s most important work streams across transport, housing, and resource management.<\/p>\n

It would also be notable in that it has long been speculated \u2013 though also vehemently denied \u2013 that Bishop was behind the destabilisation of Luxon\u2019s leadership earlier this year.<\/p>\n

While Bishop is currently in third, there is a case \u2013 at least based on recent National history \u2013 for Brownlee getting a high position.<\/p>\n

The 2017 election was the last in which National went to the ballots already in Government.<\/p>\n

At the time, its Speaker was Sir David Carter. He was ranked third on the list, behind then Prime Minister Sir Bill English and deputy leader Paula Bennett. The party didn\u2019t retain power, but Carter was re-elected thanks to the list.<\/p>\n

Now let\u2019s go back to 2014. Carter was Speaker and ranked third. Back to 2011? Sir Lockwood Smith, then the Speaker for National, was also ranked at number three.<\/p>\n

A pattern is there. It\u2019s not codified in the party\u2019s constitution, but each time, the Speaker of the day was given the third list spot.<\/p>\n

So could Brownlee find himself elevated to the third position for National this year? <\/p>\n

On Sunday, he told the Herald he had no expectation he would be given that spot, suggesting that there were \u201cdifferent circumstances\u201d under Key and English.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve got a different front bench. Those are matters for the party, not for individuals to start prescribing themselves.\u201d <\/p>\n

Brownlee said he was \u201chappy to accept\u201d the list-only spot.<\/p>\n

If you consider Brownlee\u2019s status as Speaker as well as one of the currently longest-serving MPs, it would be surprising for him to be given a position that left him vulnerable to falling out of Parliament.<\/p>\n

Not only would that be a shock to the party, but it would also mean Brownlee wouldn\u2019t be afforded the opportunity to give a valedictory speech.<\/p>\n

\"PaulPaul Goldsmith is unlikely to win Epsom. Photo \/ Mark Mitchell<\/p>\n

Another in this potential danger zone is Goldsmith, who will loyally run again for Epsom but isn\u2019t likely to defeat Act\u2019s David Seymour.<\/p>\n

Goldsmith told the Herald he was \u201cvery confident\u201d he would get back on the list. Asked if he would push for a higher list ranking, he said that was for the party to decide.<\/p>\n

\u201cEvery candidate wants to be as high as they can be … It\u2019s the decision of the party to decide how they put the list together and I\u2019ll just do my best.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lu would also struggle to return, even if she is given what would be considered a normally good list spot. She is unlikely to be ranked above ministers.<\/p>\n

She is also an interesting player within the National Party. The MP is a very vocal supporter of Luxon and has an impressive set of relationships with Auckland communities.<\/p>\n

In the press release on Friday announcing her list-only candidacy, she was explicit that she would be \u201ccampaigning with our ethnic communities to turn out the party vote for National\u201d.<\/p>\n

This is all, of course, theoretical and based on current polling.<\/p>\n

Ask Luxon or anyone else in the party about its prospects and they\u2019ll tell you National will improve its poll results over the coming months as the campaign kicks in and retain its talent.<\/p>\n

That is possible. But barring any exceptional events, the party appears to be set to receive less support than in 2023.<\/p>\n

Putting aside predictions about who may or may not return, or what electorate seats could be won, this exercise demonstrates the pressure that will be mounting on some senior National MPs.<\/p>\n

Returning to Parliament on current polling isn\u2019t a given, as it was for Finlayson in the halcyon days of Key and English.<\/p>\n

With potentially only a couple of list spots in Parliament, the futures of many are on a knife edge.<\/p>\n

MPs at risk of losing their seat are susceptible to questioning their party\u2019s direction and its leadership.<\/p>\n

If the party isn\u2019t doing well enough for them to return, what action could they take to improve their stocks?<\/p>\n

Jamie Ensor is the NZ Herald\u2019s Chief Political Reporter, based in the press gallery at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub press gallery office. He was a finalist in 2025 for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"But behind the bright blue lights at the National conference and the standing ovations for various ministers and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":488887,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2246,192,1975,5195,3013,4766,5903,35674,3278,21978,51500,9519,7810,17318,3556,111,43,139,69,4762,5415,7192,5843],"class_list":["post-488886","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-zealand","tag-2246","tag-are","tag-at","tag-be","tag-but","tag-conference","tag-election","tag-ensor","tag-facts","tag-futures","tag-happy","tag-jamie","tag-may","tag-mps","tag-national","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-party","tag-playing","tag-risk","tag-senior"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/488886","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=488886"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/488886\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/488887"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=488886"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=488886"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=488886"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}