{"id":491464,"date":"2026-06-23T11:53:14","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T11:53:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/491464\/"},"modified":"2026-06-23T11:53:14","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T11:53:14","slug":"poll-big-two-parties-at-30-year-low-opportunity-nears-5-threshold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/491464\/","title":{"rendered":"Poll: Big two parties at 30-year low, Opportunity nears 5% threshold"},"content":{"rendered":"

Both Labour and National have taken falls in the latest 1News Verian poll, with Labour tumbling by five points, while National enters the 20s for the first time since 2021.<\/p>\n

The standout is Opportunity which has risen to 4.6%, sitting just 0.4% off the 5% threshold, enough to bring the party into Parliament at its fourth attempt.<\/p>\n

The combined total for the two major parties is just 61% – that\u2019s the lowest it\u2019s been since 1996, the year of the first MMP election.<\/p>\n

1News Verian poll: Who could be kingmaker as major parties hit 30-year low – Watch on TVNZ+<\/a><\/p>\n

Opportunity knocks at 5% threshold as both Labour and National have taken falls. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s results reflect a similar pattern to our last poll in April<\/a> with the left bloc able to form a government, knocking the coalition out of power.<\/p>\n

The left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori would have 64 seats, compared to 60 for the right bloc of National, NZ First and ACT.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(Source: 1News)<\/p>\n

There would be an overhang of four seats in Parliament, on the basis that Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori holds on to its six electorate seats, however this is an unlikely scenario given the events the party has battled with<\/a> over the past year.<\/p>\n

Labour has dropped by 5%, falling from 37% down to 32%, losing all the ground it took in our last poll.<\/p>\n

National has also fallen, dropping by 1% from 30% down to 29%, the first time the party has been in the 20s under Luxon as leader in this poll.<\/p>\n

Minor party race heats up with Opportunity rising to a record rating with voters. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n

Under Judith Collins, the party registered 28% in her final poll as leader before she lost the leadership.<\/p>\n

Smaller parties rise<\/p>\n

The major parties’ losses are the minors\u2019 gains. <\/p>\n

The Greens are up by 2%, rising from 11% to 13%.<\/p>\n

New Zealand First also continue their upward trajectory, moving up from 10% to 11%.<\/p>\n

ACT meanwhile have dropped for the fourth poll in a row, sliding by 1% down to 6%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(Source: 1News)<\/p>\n

Arguably the biggest winners are Opportunity, rising by 1.3% up to 4.6%.<\/p>\n

That would leave them just short of the 5% threshold required to get into Parliament – unless they won an electorate seat.<\/p>\n

Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori are steady on 2%.<\/p>\n

The number of undecided voters has also sharply risen, by 5% up to 14%.<\/p>\n

Preferred leader<\/p>\n

National\u2019s Christopher Luxon has returned to being New Zealand’s preferred option for Prime Minister, though still with unimpressive numbers.<\/p>\n

He’s up by 2% to 18%, a climb from his record low in our last poll of 16%.<\/p>\n

Labour\u2019s Chris Hipkins meanwhile has gone in the other direction. He’s fallen by 3%, down from 19% to 16%.<\/p>\n

Also dropping, despite his party improving, is Winston Peters. He’s gone from 12% down to 10%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(Source: 1News)<\/p>\n

Green Party co-leader Chl\u00f6e Swarbrick is steady on 6%, while ACT leader David Seymour is also steady on 4%.<\/p>\n

Rounding out the honourable mentions at 1% are senior National Minister Chris Bishop, Finance Minister Nicola Willis, Education Minister Erica Stanford, former prime minister Dame Jacinda Ardern, and senior Labour MP Kieran McAnulty.<\/p>\n

Full poll results<\/p>\n

Party vote<\/p>\n

Labour \u2013 32% (down 5% since April)<\/p>\n

National \u2013 29% (down 1%)<\/p>\n

Greens \u2013 13% (up 2%)<\/p>\n

NZ First \u2013 11% (up 1%)<\/p>\n

ACT \u2013 6% (down 1%)<\/p>\n

Opportunity Party – 4.6% (up 1.3%)<\/p>\n

Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori \u2013 2% (steady)<\/p>\n

Don’t know \/ refused to say \u2013 14% (up 5%)<\/p>\n

Seats in the House<\/p>\n

Labour \u2013 41<\/p>\n

National \u2013 37<\/p>\n

Greens \u2013 17<\/p>\n

NZ First \u2013 15<\/p>\n

ACT \u2013 8<\/p>\n

Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori \u2013 6<\/p>\n

Total: 124<\/p>\n

Preferred prime minister<\/p>\n

Christopher Luxon \u2013 18% (up 2%)<\/p>\n

Chris Hipkins \u2013 16% (down 3%)<\/p>\n

Winston Peters \u2013 10% (down 2%)<\/p>\n

Chl\u00f6e Swarbrick \u2013 6% (steady)<\/p>\n

David Seymour \u2013 4% (steady)<\/p>\n

See the full poll report here<\/a><\/p>\n

Between June 13 and June 17 2026, 1001 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (500) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately \u00b13.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Both Labour and National have taken falls in the latest 1News Verian poll, with Labour tumbling by five…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":491465,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5901,28921,111794,44152,11508,23067,57067,69543,8028,111795,11507,111,137,43,139,69,135,57068,8027,111736],"class_list":["post-491464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-zealand","tag-1news-recommends","tag-act-party","tag-chloe-swarbrick","tag-chris-hipkins","tag-christopher-luxon","tag-david-seymour","tag-debbie-ngarewa-packer","tag-green-party","tag-labour-party","tag-marama-davidson","tag-national-party","tag-new-zealand","tag-new-zealand-first","tag-news","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-politics","tag-rawiri-waititi","tag-te-pati-maori","tag-verian-poll"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/491464","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=491464"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/491464\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/491465"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=491464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=491464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=491464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}