{"id":493621,"date":"2026-06-24T19:26:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-24T19:26:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/493621\/"},"modified":"2026-06-24T19:26:11","modified_gmt":"2026-06-24T19:26:11","slug":"poll-of-polls-coalitions-likelihood-of-being-re-elected-continues-to-fall-opportunity-on-the-cusp-of-parliament","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/493621\/","title":{"rendered":"Poll of polls: Coalition\u2019s likelihood of being re-elected continues to fall, Opportunity on the cusp of Parliament"},"content":{"rendered":"

The poll of polls reckons Labour\u2019s likely party vote is 32.3%, the Greens are on 10.3%, and Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori is on 2.2%.<\/p>\n

It calculates National\u2019s vote to be 29.5%, NZ First\u2019s to be 13.7%, and Act\u2019s to be 7%.<\/p>\n

That would give the National-led bloc 63 seats compared with 57 for the Labour-led bloc.<\/p>\n

This is comprised of 37 seats for National, 17 for NZ First, and nine for Act. Labour would be the largest party with 41 seats, 13 seats for the Greens, and three for Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori.<\/p>\n

The NZ Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls<\/a> uses data from public polls and other private or less frequent polls and inputs them into a computer model using polling data going back to 2014.<\/p>\n

It uses this data to run 4000 election simulations, which are used to form probabilities of various election outcomes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The poll of polls reckons Labour\u2019s likely party vote is 32.3%, the Greens are on 10.3%, and Te…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":474346,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[247239,16891,682,169232,7230,238807,13982,31491,38402,3592,16555,266,305,247238,70033,111,43,139,12885,69,1118,90,6452,24637,2954,13027,3430,28057,56522,1518,223,1529,61,102],"class_list":["post-493621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-zealand","tag-247239","tag-able","tag-being","tag-calculating","tag-coalition","tag-coalitions","tag-continues","tag-cusp","tag-drop","tag-fall","tag-form","tag-government","tag-have","tag-heraldmotu","tag-likelihood","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-newzealand","tag-november","tag-nz","tag-of","tag-on","tag-opportunity","tag-parliament","tag-parties","tag-poll","tag-polls","tag-probability","tag-reelected","tag-research","tag-the","tag-three","tag-to","tag-with"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/493621","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=493621"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/493621\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/474346"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=493621"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=493621"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=493621"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}