<\/p>\n
RBA Governor Michele Bullock may have a surprise in store. Picture: Philip Gostelow<\/p>\n
ANALYSIS<\/p>\n
Hold onto your hats because the RBA might just be poised to shock us with a rate hike at its September board meeting.<\/p>\n
Inflation is ticking up, unemployment remains low and households seem to be spending more.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, we are beginning to hear the rumblings of a recently dormant price volcano sitting beneath the property market.<\/p>\n
But wait, the RBA board never shocks us, they are too cautious and conservative, right?<\/p>\n
That is sometimes true, but usually concerning their attitude towards cuts.<\/p>\n
There have been plenty of shocks on the flip side. In July, journalists sat ready to hit publish on a story about an RBA cut, so certain were we that it was the only viable outcome. But they shocked us by holding.<\/p>\n
Back in 2021, then RBA governor Philip Lowe suggested the cash rate would remain at 0.1 per cent until 2024 at least.<\/p>\n
MORE:Inflation shock \u2018may force\u2019 RBA response<\/a><\/p>\n Former RBA governor Philip Lowe. Picture: Max Mason-Hubers<\/p>\n Fast forward to 2024 and there had been 13 rate increases instead. That was a shock, although one that played out over a longer time.<\/p>\n During that period, borrowers were shocked, not just by consecutive months of rate rises, but by consecutive double rate increases of 0.50 per cent. Four months in a row, in fact.<\/p>\n So the RBA isn\u2019t always cautious, conservative and gradual.<\/p>\n Finder\u2019s RBA rate survey revealed a number of economists believed the fight against inflation was not done yet, especially after the August CPI rose to 3 per cent, up from 2.8 per cent the month prior and 1.9 per cent the month before that.<\/p>\n \u201cHeadline CPI has reached a one-year high,\u201d said Stella Huangfu of University of Sydney. \u201cMonthly CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel has also climbed to its highest level in a year.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n