Markets await a bunch of key checks on the American consumer <\/p>\n
The June jobs report on Thursday (not Friday!) will shape the week, but a suite of jobs data (job openings, ADP private payrolls, and layoff plans) will make for a steady drumbeat of economic data, along with a consumer sentiment check and economic activity data from S&P Global and ISM. <\/p>\n
The short week \u2014 markets are closed on Friday for Fourth of July weekend! \u2014 may have a slim earnings calendar, but it’s a big one: Nike (NKE<\/a>) reports on Tuesday. <\/p>\n Labor market vibes may be bad, thanks to actual hard data that shows how tough it is to get a job, but also with the AI juggernaut causing many companies to pause hiring as they reconsider their needs. <\/p>\n While it’s debatable whether that last point is real or perceived, the labor market’s actual report card has thus far been fine to the main judge that matters: the Federal Reserve. <\/p>\n Any labor market worries from the Fed have mostly evaporated as the central bank looks to the other side of its mandate. But Thursday’s jobs report for June and other labor market data will provide key context as to just how hot the economy is. A warming labor market would signal a danger for inflation and help cement a hawkish Fed inclined to cut. <\/p>\n Current estimates suggest 123,000 jobs were added in June, according to Bloomberg. <\/p>\n On top of that, consumer sentiment is rebounding \u2014 another harbinger of potential demand. <\/p>\n Investors try to make sense of an expensive AI trade Memory chipmaker stocks yo-yoed last week, falling and then rising after Micron’s massive earnings presentation, in which it showed massive demand locked in for years to come. <\/p>\n But while that was a good sign for the infrastructure side of the AI trade, reports that OpenAI is delaying its IPO added a sense of worry for investors as they asked themselves the obvious question: Why? Or even: What’s wrong? <\/p>\n At the same time, AI demand may be beginning to justify the enormous costs of data center infrastructure for the first time, according to a new report from Exponential View, cited by Bloomberg<\/a>. While investors were spooked by hyperscalers’ free cash flow being completely pillaged by AI costs, the prospect of AI sales finally catching up would come as a clear indication that the bets are paying off. <\/p>\n Measuring AI demand (who is using AI) is the key next step after measuring supply (investments, chip sales, and compute), which has dominated the conversation in these AI early days. But with so many AI companies still private \u2014 and OpenAI potentially staying private for longer \u2014 good demand data is hard to find. <\/p>\n And as we wait, we’re left with the big thing Micron’s blowout earnings last week illustrated: Those supply costs are getting truly enormous<\/a>. <\/p>\n Falling oil prices could mean a new inflation problem Oil prices are falling. On Friday, barrels of Brent crude (CF=L<\/a>), the global benchmark, dipped under $70.<\/a> Gas prices, though declining as usual like a feather after going up like a rocket, are drifting down with the national average sitting at $3.90, according to AAA. <\/p>\n This of course, is broadly auspicious for inflation \u2014 a key problem for Kevin Warsh and the Fed. But it could also present a problem. <\/p>\n As Apollo chief economist Torsten Sl\u00f8k noted last week, lower oil prices could easily be interpreted by markets to mean “lower inflation” and spur on demand in an already hot economy. (Disclosure: Yahoo is a portfolio company of funds managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management.) <\/p>\n “The market narrative now suggests that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will further overheat the economy, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates soon,” he wrote. <\/p>\n Though it may be tenuous, the Strait of Hormuz is open again, and we’re watching. On the other hand, it may never get back to “normal.” <\/p>\n Read more.<\/a> <\/p>\n Economic and earnings calendar Monday <\/p>\n Economic data: Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, June (0.4 previously) <\/p>\n Earnings calendar: AeroVironment (AVAV<\/a>); Concentrix Corporation (CNXC<\/a>) <\/p>\n Tuesday <\/p>\n Economic data: FHFA house price index, month-on-month, April (+0.1% previously); MNI Chicago PMI, June (62.7 previously); Conference Board consumer confidence, June (94.6 expected, 93.1 previously); Conference Board present situation, June (121.2 previously); Conference Board expectations, June (74.4 previously); JOLTS job openings, May (7.36 million expected, 7.61 million previously); JOLTS quits rate, May (+1.9% previously); JOLTS layoffs rate, May (+1.1% previously); Dallas Fed services activity, June (-7.7 previously) <\/p>\n Earnings calendar: NIKE (NKE<\/a>), Constellation Brands (STZ<\/a>) <\/p>\n Wednesday <\/p>\n Economic data: Challenger job cuts, year-on-year, June (+3.4% previously); MBA mortgage applications, week ended June 26 (+1% previously); ADP employment change, June (+120,000 expected, +122,000 previously); S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, June final reading (55.7 previously); ISM manufacturing, June (53.7 expected, 54 previously); ISM prices paid, June (82.1 previously); ISM new orders, June (56.8 previously); ISM employment, June (48.6 previously); Construction spending, month-on-month, May (+0.4% previously); Omdia total vehicle sales, June (16.08 million previously) <\/p>\n Earnings calendar: General Mills (GIS<\/a>), FactSet Research Systems (FDS<\/a>), MSC Industrial Direct Co. (MSM<\/a>), UniFirst Corporation (U1N.F<\/a>), National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ<\/a>) <\/p>\n Thursday <\/p>\n Economic data: Change in nonfarm payrolls, June (+135,000 expected, +172,000 previously); Change in private payrolls, June (+123,000 expected, +120,000 previously); Change in manufacturing payrolls, June (+4,000 expected, +7,000 previously); Unemployment rate, June (+4.3% expected, +4.3% previously); Average hourly earnings, month-on-month, June (+0.3% expected, +0.3% previously); Average hourly earnings, year-on-year, June (+3.5% expected, +3.4% previously); Initial jobless claims, week ended June 27 (+215,000 previously); Continuing claims, week ended June 27 (+1.821 million previously); Factory orders, May (+4.8% previously); Durable goods orders, May final reading (-4.5% previously) <\/p>\n Earnings calendar: Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR<\/a>) <\/p>\n Friday <\/p>\n Economic data: Holiday. No economic data. <\/p>\n Earnings calendar: Holiday. No earnings. <\/p>\n<\/a> A now hiring sign is posted in the window of a Domino’s Pizza restaurant on June 05, 2026, in Los Angeles. (Justin Sullivan\/Getty Images) \u00b7 Justin Sullivan via Getty Images <\/p>\n
<\/a> CEO of OpenAI Sam Altman talks to reporters following a meeting with Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) at the Dirksen Senate Office building in Washington, D.C., on June 3, 2026. (Nathan Posner\/Anadolu via Getty Images) \u00b7 Anadolu via Getty Images <\/p>\n
<\/a> Gas prices are displayed at a Gulf gas station on June 25, 2026, in Austin, Texas. (Brandon Bell\/Getty Images) \u00b7 Brandon Bell via Getty Images <\/p>\n